It's true. I fully believe he WILL make the Olympics, but even if he does not, he will still run under 3:32 in Europe this summer. Sub 13:15 if he chooses to run the 5k.
It's true. I fully believe he WILL make the Olympics, but even if he does not, he will still run under 3:32 in Europe this summer. Sub 13:15 if he chooses to run the 5k.
3:25 for sure.
But seriously, is this the whole "talent doesn't go away" thing?
I don't know who came up with that line but talent does go away.
People go through physical changes.
Sometimes it's age.
Sometimes chronic injury.
2012 Webb is better than 2002 or 2003 Webb.
But I don't see how that means 2004-2007 Webb is on his way back.
He was better in 2011 and even better in 2010.
I'd say the over/under on this year is 3:35.50
He has one sub 3:32 in his life.
It's bit much to say he is getting back there again.
he's also had a mile that is equivalent to a 3:29. I'm not sure how you don't see a 4.5 second drop in the 1500m to 3:38 over 2 weeks as pointing to him getting back into good shape (i.e. real low 3:30s). If it had taken him 2 months to go from 3:43 to 3:38 then you'd have a point, but it took 2 weeks, which is nothing! He's got several months left of the season. I'd say the over/under for May is 3:35.50.
Also if you think talent goes away, well, that's a weird thought. Talent only diminishes with age, and 29 is not old. Once your body has done something or performed to a certain level it is not all that hard to get near that level again even after a break of several years, unless you're already over 40 because your athletic potential is already waning every year at that point.
His mile equates to 3:30.1 and that was the same season as his 3:30.5.
I just don't think he has the same physical body that he had 5 years ago.
The amount of seconds he dropped in two weeks may be more indicative of the type of race and the competition than actual fitness gained.
I would say he is sharper.
He said he is ignoring his distant past and I am as well.
So I look at him as a guy that ran 3:37 last year and 3:36 the year before.
Getting to mid 3:35 this year would be good, like most of the other 10 guys that finished ahead of him in that last race.
A real breakthrough at age 29 after more than 10 years competing at an elite level would be a huge break from the norm.
But odds do get beaten from time to time and it would be great if he went under 3:32 again.
I am just trying to place the odds where they belong in this case.
I think for that to happen he has to come to terms right now with that fact that he might not make the team. He can't afford to not make it and then be stuck feeling sorry for himself for months. How he mentally handles this Olympic year, whether he makes it or not, will determine his level of success in the future.
yeah i just think you are looking at it completely wrong. He is ignoring his past for psychological reasons, so that he's not comparing a 3:38 to a 3:30 and getting upset about it. It is still a physical fact that his body has gone 3:30 and he's still young and there is no reason why he can't do it again.
Its fine to look at him as a guy who has run 3:37 last year and 3:36 the year before, but you also have to take into account that he did the 3:37 in like the beginning of march last year and 3:36 the year before in the late summer after starting running in june. He didn't train a full year and run those, he ran those times off of fitness levels far below his peak because his training wasn't close to a full year's training. So it makes perfect sense that before he really starts getting sharp (and that's where he is now, just rounding into shape and not yet sharp) he's running mid to high 3:30's. Assuming he stays injury free this summer, what do you think is gonna happen when he actually starts getting in to race shape? He hasn't been in race shape since 2007.
If he had run 3:36 and 3:37 the past two years while getting in full training those two years then yes it would be out of the ordinary for him to get back to his old form. But 3:36,3:37,and now 3:38 show what he is capable of doing in early season shape (it's may 1st today, not august 1st).
I can see if you are skeptical that he'll stay healthy, but outside of 2003 and 2008, during which I can only assume overtraining, any time Alan get in consistent training he runs like you would expect anyone to run: to their potential.
alan webb is great for the sport of running. i'm so excited to see how he does. i'm always tuning in.
i was in 8th grade when i saw on tv that he had run a 3:53. became a fan and have stayed one. met him one year at footlocker south
go webb!
I hope that Webb gets in a fast 5k at some point this summer. Approaching his PR might be a bit much to ask, but who knows; that 13:49 workout was pretty impressive.
It's true that he didn't have a full season the last several years.
Maybe the same things that prevented him from having a full season for years will haunt him again.
But if he stays healthy we may see him back to world class.
People are getting excited about a race where he finished 11th and none of the US favorites were in the race.
Though, 3:38 in April is not a bad place to be.
The big question is whether he can get his speed going at all.
i agree, its pretty clear he's got no speed right now. Which points even more to him quickly dropping a couple extra seconds once him and his coach start developing his speed so that he can have a good kick. And he's gonna need that speed in June to have a chance at making the team.
well wrote:
i agree, its pretty clear he's got no speed right now. Which points even more to him quickly dropping a couple extra seconds once him and his coach start developing his speed so that he can have a good kick. And he's gonna need that speed in June to have a chance at making the team.
This is interesting, because Vig is far more interested in developing speed than was Raczko. Vig doesn't follow as much of a "slow to fast" progression and tries to develop speed throughout the year, and I know of a number of runners at UVA (especially Jesien) whose speed improved dramatically after Vig started coaching there. I think Webb might surprise us soon with his speed.
Does anyone have any insight to Webb's training?
I wonder what his mileage is like?
Does Vig have him do tempos and longer strength work?
Webb always seems like someone who thrived off of cross country type training for a good part of the year before dialing in on the speed. I wonder if that is what Vig is doing or if he has changed the formula.
Conto wrote:
Does anyone have any insight to Webb's training?
I wonder what his mileage is like?
Does Vig have him do tempos and longer strength work?
Webb always seems like someone who thrived off of cross country type training for a good part of the year before dialing in on the speed. I wonder if that is what Vig is doing or if he has changed the formula.
No insight into Webb's training in particular but a lot of insight into Vig's training in general. He mixes a lot of fast stuff with tempos/long intervals/hills; people running under him tend to develop their speed pretty well even when they are not racing. Obviously don't want to give too many details (doubt my sources would be happy) but Vig's system is a little different from what Webb has been following in the past.
Is Robby Andrews update?
I agree 100% with the "talent doesn't go away" line, anybody who uses that line should be banned for life. Of course it goes away, people age, get injured, sick, etc.
But back to the op, yeah I think 3:31 and 12:55 are gonna be within reach soon, I am back on the bandwagon.
well wrote:
Also if you think talent goes away, well, that's a weird thought. Talent only diminishes with age...
That is absolutely idiotic. Bodies change continuously. Therefore talent does as well. Unless, of course, you think that talent has nothing to do with one's body.
When people age, get injured, and get sick, FITNESS goes away.
When I start up a training program, after about a couple months of not running, with a solid 8 weeks of base I am at about 17:00ish for 5K. Webb would probably be 14:45-15:00 in that same span. That's talent, it's inherent, and it doesn't go away.
But when you're 50, you won't get to 17 anymore. And if someone has really gone through a physical problem, whether it be hormone imbalance, increased susceptibility to injury, whatever, then it's no longer relevant what their base "talent" level is. If Webb can no longer do the type of work he did in 2007, or doesn't get the same effect from it, then for all intents and purposes his "talent" is diminished.
By talent I guess I mean the ability to adapt to training, therefore the ability to quickly get to a certain level of running. People with lots of talent get to a certain level of running (race times) quicker than people with less talent. It is easier for them. Talent means fitness is acquired easier. So when I said talent doesn't go away, except with age, I just meant when you get old it is harder to get to a certain fitness level, which I would describe as one's talent. Outside of aging, which makes you less able to adapt to training, talent doesn't go away.
And no, talent does not go away from being sick or injured. Those are simply conditions that prevent someone from training effectively or performing at a certain level while you are dealing with the condition. That has nothing to do with talent.
A few weeks ago I went out to the local track and time trialed a 5:38 mile after not having done a single real run in almost a year and a half (due to injuries) and not doing any sort of exercise outside of walking in about a year. Why can I do that? Because my body has been to a certain running fitness level that not only sets some minimum amount of fitness that I have without training but also if I trained would allow me to quickly progress back toward my PR's. That is the expression of this thing we call talent. Talent is how easy it is to achieve some fitness level, and this varies a lot from person to person. And the quote that says something like "the more I trained the more talented I became" is true, because as you improve it gets easier to hit certain levels of fitness because you've been there before and your body becomes trained on how to do it.
Haha, YO (super cereal) wrote:
It's true. I fully believe he WILL make the Olympics, but even if he does not, he will still run under 3:32 in Europe this summer. Sub 13:15 if he chooses to run the 5k.
Nope. He's done folks. I don't how much clearer he can make it for you.