Breakingthree - I wish you the best and I hope you break 3 hours. It is great to see people set goals and achieve them. I wrote the post below in June of 2006 and it has been shared over 100 times on several different forums throughout the past decade. Here it is and maybe it will help you or someone on this board - FYI - you have the talent to go sub 3, but I do not think you have the conditioning at this point based on what you provided - the last 12K is tough - I would predict 3:09:11
[Back in June, (MCW26.22) made this post over on RW when he heard about our quest for sub-3. I’m reposting it here because it’s a classic.] - reposted on Running Times -
Here are my thoughts on the subject which I have developed through my experience (finally reaching sub 3).
a. If you are single and have no children that is a huge advantage! If this is the case move on to b. If not, it really really helps to have a supportive family. My wife and I have a relationship that most couples would envy, but running has been our real only hurdle. Not to get too personal etc. but my wife believes running 20-25 miles per week is plenty and running a marathon makes no sense. I know that the more miles you run per week, the better you will be in the marathon. So you can see where it gets sticky.
b. My marathon success was a direct correlation to these 5 things:
1. Total weekly miles: I was able to run 60-80 miles per week for 18 out of 20 weeks leading up to my 10 day taper.
2. Long Runs: The marathon is a long ways. I figured I had better get used to running 20+ miles. I did 8 20+ mile long runs every other weekend. On the other alternate weekends I did my MP runs.
3. Marathon Pace Runs (MP): I did these on the weekend I was not doing my Long Runs. I would do a 1 mile warm up easy, then MP Runs between 10-14 miles. I figured it was important to get used to running at MP.
4. Speed Work: I did this once a week and usually on Wednesdays. You could do whatever you like: Mile repeats, 800 repeats, fartleks or tempo runs. I did tempo runs always. I would do a 2 mile warm up, 4 about 10 sec. slower per mile than 10K pace, then a 3 mile cool down.
5. Recovery Runs: Some call them junk miles but not me. I believe they serve a purpose. I ran them how I felt. Sometimes at 7:30 pace, sometimes at 8:30 pace. I believe anytime you are running (even if it is slower than normal), you are building strength in your legs. That strength maybe what carries you the last 8K.
Lastly, find a course that allows you a chance to go sub 3. Usually it is your training that gets you there and if you are in true sub 3 hour shape you probably will get there. But, know one wants to run real well and run a 3:01 in, for example, Atlanta when that would have been a 2:55:00 in Chicago.
There are so many variables to geting there and so many things can go wrong. Sadly, if your on the boarder a lot has to go right (weather, no bathroom breaks, upset stomach etc.) and 1 thing can screw the race up.
But, it is a feeling that you will never forget if you have chased the goal for a long time. I ran 3:00:16 on 10/03 and finally made it 10/05. That was two years of about 5,000+ miles of thinking about 16 seconds. During those two years I had the ability but ran into some bad luck.
Best of Luck,
MWC26.22