What percentage of runners at the Olympic Trials Marathon think they have a chance at making top 3?

Who was the article about? While technically a 2:18 guy, Chris Siemers has an outside shot of making the team. It's a very long shot, but since he ran his 2:18 at altitude, it's much better than 2:18.

Max King is the #27 qualifier with a 2:15:34. If you look at most of the names in front of him (guys like Abdi, Mike Morgan, Vega, Tim Nelson, Gabrielson, Lehmkuhle, Hartmann, Torres, Arciniaga, Eggleston), they have almost all been in the mix at some sort of US road championships. Many of them have represented the US in world championship/pan am/eikeden teams. My guess is that those guys have a plan for how to get in the mix for a top-3 finish that doesn't just boil down to "I hope I have the race of my life."

If you look past Max King, most of the names you see (but not all) have never really been at the top of any post-collegiate national championship and/or international marathon-type race. I have no idea whether or not they think they have a shot to qualify, but I think most of them would admit it would take a pretty bizarre/unprecedented turn of events to make that happen. There's also a large amount of runners in that group who didn't qualify until this fall, which makes for a pretty tough turnaround.

So my answer is 27 + 1 more for Galen Rupp, apparently= 28.

My bad, I'll call usatf to let them know I'm dropping out because some kid is jealous on letsrun

You have to go into a race like this thinking you have a chance. Crazy stuff does happen in marathons. It isn't even a stretch to think Hall, Meb, and Ritz all DNF. Sure it isn't likely but it COULD happen. People get sick, injured, or blow up all the time in marathons.

Now if some dude scraped in by running 1 second under the standard while running the race of his life on an easy course with a tailwind, then shows up in Houston not in peak shape, of course they really shouldn't expect much. But still, may as well try hard and hope for the best. Why not?

Elite running periodically produces miraculous results and that keeps people pushin' on. There's so much that is mental/emotional in the sport.

I'm still amazed that Billy Mills went through the 5k in a personal best time en route to a 10K gold.

Dave Whottle wasn't even ranked in the world the year before he took the 800 at Munich.

And was it Trent Briney(sp?) who ran an 8 or 10 minute PR at a recent US olympic marathon trials to finish fourth, just being caught for the last spot in the final few miles?

gallagher wrote:

Dave Whottle wasn't even ranked in the world the year before he took the 800 at Munich.

Wottle had run 1:44.3 at the Olympic trials in 1972, equal to the world record at the time. He may not have world ranked in 1971 but he wasn't an unknown going into the race.

crazy guy is right wrote:

You have to go into a race like this thinking you have a chance. Crazy stuff does happen in marathons. It isn't even a stretch to think Hall, Meb, and Ritz all DNF. Sure it isn't likely but it COULD happen. People get sick, injured, or blow up all the time in marathons.

Now if some dude scraped in by running 1 second under the standard while running the race of his life on an easy course with a tailwind, then shows up in Houston not in peak shape, of course they really shouldn't expect much. But still, may as well try hard and hope for the best. Why not?

Absolutely true, and I am not trying to take away anything from anyone who qualified. They are all badasses, and I am not.

But to suggest that if Meb, Ritz, and Hall all DNF it opens the door to a 2:18 marathoner is pretty insulting to guys like Arciniaga, Lehmkuhle, Hartmann, Gotcher, etc. These are serious, talented, and fast runners. Many (all?) of them have multiple sub-2:14 clockings.

I'll put it this way: if you gave me the opportunity to win even money on the proposition that all 3 qualifiers will have run sub-2:15 (or the equivalent 1/2 marathon/10K time) before the trials, I would put a hundred bucks on it. That isn't to take away anything from anybody who qualified-- again,they are badasses, I am not. It's just a very deep field with a lot of experience, and I have a hard time seeing someone come out of nowhere in that mix.

Consider This wrote:

gallagher wrote:

Dave Whottle wasn't even ranked in the world the year before he took the 800 at Munich.

Wottle had run 1:44.3 at the Olympic trials in 1972, equal to the world record at the time. He may not have world ranked in 1971 but he wasn't an unknown going into the race.

The Olympic trials were held, I think, a few months before Munich not a year prior.

The Houston trials are being held about 7 or 8 months before the Olympic marathon. Wottle I seem to remember was not considered a factor for Munich near Christmas of 1971.

This sums up the mindset of all most any serious marathoner I've ever known, whether in a Trials race or any other time they've toed a starting line. If you don't have this, you don't get it.

What if you could choose to go and run the Oly marathon?

Some individuals have dual citizenships in a country with relatively few, if any, good distance runners. So if you could get in the Oly marathon with a 2:17 but for another country...would you?

With Rupp running I'm changing my 90% to about 20%.

Would you really have wanted Trent Briney to have gone? He did not run anything close to that before and never got remotely close to that after. Personally I'd rather someone that is supposed to go be the one to go then some who pops off the best they can posibly do at the trials.

stuck with match.com wrote:

And I said wrote:

So everyone except Rupp thinks they'll make it? Wouldn't that mean 99%? There's a reason you're stuck with match.com--what girl wants a bonehead?

680 math sat score biotch

And about 180 on the writing.

NO I'm not jealous. I feel sorry for you guys for not making the 2012 London team. It's not just me that's not making the team everyone here not making it.

Mmmmmmm wrote:

Would you really have wanted Trent Briney to have gone? He did not run anything close to that before and never got remotely close to that after. Personally I'd rather someone that is supposed to go be the one to go then some who pops off the best they can posibly do at the trials.

Well, that's another good debate. There are pluses to the committee system using performances from a series of designated races but who knows how well a Briney-esque case might do with the unexpected high of making an olympic team in one shot.

Avocado - you put it very well. We don't know all the factors that take one of these 2:13 to 2:16 guys and turn him into a 2:10 guy, but several of them have a shot. Some ran there PR on a tough course or in hot weather. Some have stepped up elements of their training. There are always 'surprises,' though often the guy who does the 'surprising' isn't 'surprised' as he is confident in his mental and physical preparation.

stuck with match.com wrote:

680 math sat score biotch

I don't get it. Are you just posting that to make fun of folks who can't score higher than that? That seems mean. Or do you actually think 680 is impressive?

I don't get it.

"Being a bit delusional is what keeps a lot of runners trying to get better. Really, being delusionally optimistic is a great asset in life in general."

Great quote.

I think nearly one-half of the competitors believe they have a chance to make the team. Yet, its only those who think they have a chance to win the race are actually in contention for top 3.