2:03:42 !!! Wilson KIpsang 4" from WR

NativeSon wrote:

Selecting the Kenyan team is going to be very hard.

It seems that there are only two spots up for grabs with Abel Kirui clinching a wild card. I hope AK doesn't give Makau the second spot. We need a thriller in London in April assuming that that is where the trials will take place for the Kenyan team.

All in all, another big headache for AK.[/quote]

I think the best solution to this problem is for IOC to grand a temporary permission for other countries to lease Kenyan athletes(call it switch allegiance if you like)and enter them to compete in the Olympics! I know this is a controversial proposal specifically from the Kenyan view of things but when you look at it a different way, you will understand that this is reasonable.

Firstly, most of the current top marathoners may have depreciated in performance by next(2016) Olympics. Giving all top guys a chance to compete in next year's Olympics therefore is their only chance at winning the games.

Secondly, the move will improve competition in the games. No one country will be able to dominate and therefore every country will be looking forward for the games with alot of enthusiasm. Definitely this will be an exciting competition and the Olympic record could be become the world record!

Thirdly, countries like US, Canada, S. Korea, China, Japan if interested in this deal should compensate Kenya by building a modern track stadium in exchange for ten athletes of their choice and pay each athlete 1 million dollars per year to compete for them. Countries not well endowed could combine forces with another country and build one stadium for the same number of athletes. That means Kenya will have at least 8 to 10 new tracks spread throughout the country resulting in more and improved talent.

Someone needs to make this suggestion to the IOC. Why should we see the best talents go to waste just because only three athletes per country are allowed to compete at the Olympics? Or to have Kenyans and maybe Ethiopians running 2:03 at the Olympics and the rest not breaking 2:07?

One thing I find interesting is how most the calculators predict marathons. Based on the 12:37/26:17 most seem to predict 2:02:30-2:03:00.

However were talking something like 12:20/25:30/57:00 to be talking 2 hr marathon and those track performances seem a long, long way off.

Check your dictionary again! Genius has more meaning than what your have in mind!

i don't believe any calculator is good for road races

one i use, i usually go for the top guys being capable of a "generic" 13'00 / 27'00 in their peak form ->

~ 59'15 , 2"02'42

( for the track )

seeing as road courses are invariably slower than the track, i'd probably call that a low/mid 2"03

i think what is happening is that these guys can near perfectly "extend" their endurance from 5k/10k to the M, which they weren't doing 2 or 3y ago, with the 13'00/27'00 guys drifting out to 2"05s

This is one of the worst ideas I have ever heard, I really hope you are joking.

Geez, some of these guys need to dual citizenship up and run for another country.

Daniel Komen wrote:

Check your dictionary again! Genius has more meaning than what your have in mind!

Good to know u used a dictionary before saying that Renato is a genius!

No matter what dictionary you used, Renato doesn't appear to be a Genius to me. What ever he said about runners with potential to break the Marathon WR record has been said before and it's in the air.

If you go to Iten, Mosop is referred as "Engine Kubwa" means a big Engine. Even the Late Sammy Wanjiru was always hoping to be in a position of breaking the WR if he is in the same race with Mosop. Meaning that he knew Mosop had what it takes to push him to the record.

Talking about Abel Kirui, those who follow runners, know that Abel contributed a lot to Haile's world record. He was a pacer then. So it doesn't take a genius to know that Abel has WR pace capabilities.

Makau was Sammy Wanjiru's greatest rival as far as the half Marathon was concerned. So that too doesn't take a genius to figure out if Makau's marathon transition works well, he would be one of the favorites. And the transition was great!

All the runners Renato mentioned came from somewhere, and if you were looking you would have made the same conclusion.

The only thing Renato overlooked is the current pacemakers potential. Guys like Peter Cheruiyot, the pace maker who took lead roles in pacing Makau and Wilson Kipsang can be a great force if he choose to go for it himself.

But that is an "if". Renato focus on those who are in the game already, so that's not even a prediction, it is obvious stuff!

Kirui already has a spot on Kenya's Olympic team. With Makau and Kirui on the team, only 1 spot is left. Kenya will have to choose between so many great runners, including three who have gone under 2:04 (Mutai, Mosop, and now, Kipsang) for that last spot.

cc1438 wrote:

Anyone else think he would have gotten the record if there hadn't been so many turns in the last 2 - 3 kilos?

Yes if they hadn't set off all the fireworks and confetti in the air the last 800 meters.

I am also not sure if Geb can even get a medal in London in 2012. The torch has been passed to a new generation. (My apologies to JFK)

Daniel Komen wrote:

I think the best solution to this problem is for IOC to grand a temporary permission for other countries to lease Kenyan athletes(call it switch allegiance if you like)and enter them to compete in the Olympics!

I like this idea. However this decision should be up to the athletes, and any resulting compensation to them, not to goverments, as that would be an additional tax on the results of the runners.

This could be done by the national bodies waiving of citizenship requirements for the qualifying races in each country, approved by the IOC as you said, with all compensation to go to the athletes.

J.R. wrote:

cc1438 wrote:

Anyone else think he would have gotten the record if there hadn't been so many turns in the last 2 - 3 kilos?

Yes if they hadn't set off all the fireworks and confetti in the air the last 800 meters.

I think he could have got the record if the pace didn't go down at mile 21, and I agree with you the confetti and the red carpet could slow someone down as they feel oh I got there, but when they realize the stretch is quite long.

As a watcher, I was thinking oh he got there but the tape was no where to be seen!

Also towards the tape there were many unnecessary turns, but he can do it next time.

Wilson is another breed!

If you see his progression to what he runs now, I think he is the guy to fear most.

He is the guy who can give Mosop and Mutai the run for their money.

The claim was that he was a "marathon" genius, not only because of his marathon, but because of the extensive information he shares here about marathon training.

It doesn't take a genius to know which Kenyans are potentially the best, if you spend time in Iten, but which one of these "medium intellects" can share any knowledge about how to train these athletes at the top?

ventolin^3 wrote:

i don't believe any calculator is good for road races

one i use, i usually go for the top guys being capable of a "generic" 13'00 / 27'00 in their peak form ->

~ 59'15 , 2"02'42

( for the track )

seeing as road courses are invariably slower than the track, i'd probably call that a low/mid 2"03

i think what is happening is that these guys can near perfectly "extend" their endurance from 5k/10k to the M, which they weren't doing 2 or 3y ago, with the 13'00/27'00 guys drifting out to 2"05s

Very logical, Ventolin. Thanks for your thoughts!

the smartest letsrunner wrote:

ventolin^3 wrote:

i don't believe any calculator is good for road races

one i use, i usually go for the top guys being capable of a "generic" 13'00 / 27'00 in their peak form ->

~ 59'15 , 2"02'42

( for the track )

seeing as road courses are invariably slower than the track, i'd probably call that a low/mid 2"03

i think what is happening is that these guys can near perfectly "extend" their endurance from 5k/10k to the M, which they weren't doing 2 or 3y ago, with the 13'00/27'00 guys drifting out to 2"05s

Very logical, Ventolin. Thanks for your thoughts!

Are you freaking kidding me. Rupp is now well below 27:00. So he should be able to go well below low/mid 2:03?!? Let's call it 2:02.

Are you out of your freaking mind?

I think it's just too bad there isn't some way to get most of the big names in the same race. Imagine Makau, Mosop, Geoffrey and Emmanuel Mutai, Kipsang, and Geb all going at it. But it's unlikely more than two will ever face off. Such is the structure of things.

Why is that so outrageous? Rupp is a freaking 26:48 guy now! Anything slower than 2:05 would be underperforming.

Kenyano wrote:

I think he could have got the record if the pace didn't go down at mile 21, and I agree with you the confetti and the red carpet could slow someone down as they feel oh I got there, but when they realize the stretch is quite long.

As a watcher, I was thinking oh he got there but the tape was no where to be seen!

Also towards the tape there were many unnecessary turns, but he can do it next time.

Now that I've seen the video, there certainly were way too many turns. The constant torque, and not being able to see very far ahead was a definite disadvantate, plus not being able to see the finish, the carpet, running into a building, the sudden noise, flashing lights, confetti, wall of people. Also, the air was thick with something, was that smog?

The most ridiculous thing was stopping him right at the finish and not letting him jog or move at all. That was cruel.

On the positive side, Wilson Kipsang is a very smooth and smart runner. I'm sure he can run faster and break (the WR) again, as can Patrick Makau and others. I hope he does it on a faster and better organized course the next time.

J.R. wrote:

Now that I've seen the video, there certainly were way too many turns. The constant torque, and not being able to see very far ahead was a definite disadvantate, plus not being able to see the finish, the carpet, running into a building, the sudden noise, flashing lights, confetti, wall of people. Also, the air was thick with something, was that smog?

The most ridiculous thing was stopping him right at the finish and not letting him jog or move at all. That was cruel.

On the positive side, Wilson Kipsang is a very smooth and smart runner. I'm sure he can run faster and break (the WR) again, as can Patrick Makau and others. I hope he does it on a faster and better organized course the next time.

All the turns in the last 5km are disorienting -- you can't tell which direction you're running relative to the finish line. The Festhalle is a lot hotter and darker than outside. I always tune out the flashing lights, mostly because the sudden temperature change overwhelms everything. The exterior wall is about 4 meters past the finish line, and they can't really change that. The rest of the course is a very good place to go fast!