Really??? wrote:
I'd say a 13:40-13:45 5k time is equivalent to a 8:48 2 mile at Millrose. And what was that about 30 athletes? Right now, about 50 Kenyan athletes are capable of running a sub-13 5k. At least 10-15 times that can run 13:45. So we're saying at the very least ~600-700 Kenyans can run the equivalent of a 8:48 two mile. If all appearance fees we're covered and the deal got out to all the Kenyans, than i'd say around 1/3-1/2 would go. That would mean at the very least 200 athletes would be put on a plane which would be just over one plane full.
I agree that the 848 at Millrose equals about 13:40. I also agree that my initial estimation was off - on further research, 49 Kenyans broke 1340 last year. I'm sure there are several 10kers and milers who didn't race the event at all, who were also capable. And I'm sure there are some guys who just didn't race, or didn't have access to a race. I think that puts the number around 150 to 200, though. Not 500-600. Not even close.
And the statement that 50 Kenyans can break 13 minutes is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. Where the hell are you getting the number 50 from? In the entire 2010 season, 17 athletes in the world broke 13:00 in the 5k. 9 were from Kenya:
Eliud Kipchoge
Vincent Kiprop Chepkok
Mark Kosgey Kiptoo
Josphat Menjo
Lucas Rotich
Mathew Kisorio
Edwin Soi
Jacob Cheshari
Leonard Komon
And in 2009, guys that didn't do it 2010:
Josphat Kipkoetch
Joseph Ebuya
According to Jack Daniels' conversions, a 13:01 5k is equivalent to 3:29 for 1500, 7:27 for 3k, and 27:07 for 10k. The Kenyans not listed on the above lists who achieved any of those roughly equivalent performances in 2010 or 2009:
Silas Kiplagat
Augustine Choge
Daniel Lemashon
Josphat Ndambiri
Moses Masai
Martin Mathathi
Gedion Ngatuny
That is a total of 18 Kenyan athletes who have run performances that indicate they are possibly in sub 13 shape - many at the peak of their seasons - over the past two years. You are claiming that there roughly 32 more "just out there", right now??? That is even more absurd than saying 600 Kenyans could run 8:48.
The line would be around 20-25 long if it was a sub 13 plane.
The line would be around 200 long if it was a sub 8:48 2 mile plane.