How long would the line be at the Nairobi airport if we said we had $6,200 to anyone that could run 8:48 for 2 miles?

Obviously pretty short since none of them showed up to race!

Did there agent completely drop the ball on trying to find out if the 2mile was going to have prize money? Obviously there was going to be prize money with names like, Rupp, Fam, Verzbicas in the race. Since they all dropped out and the field got considerably weaker you would think agents would be scrambling to get their athletes into the this field, but no one showed up.

Did you think that a Milrose event like the 2mile with Rupp would have no prize money? Come on man!

Cant really blame the guys who still showed up to race. I say good for them.

The Nairobi Airport would have atleast two flights booked.

No idea if he got a shoe company bonus, but the prize money for 1st was $4,000.

i was thinking good runners were excluded from the race to make rupp look good, but after i looked at the field rupp is in next week in dusseldorf, i dont think rupp would duck anyone, and tom jordan is known for loaded fields at the Pre-classic and i dont think he would ever want to have any athlete have a glorified appearance at any race where he assembled the field.

rojo wrote:

In our week that was column this week (http://www.letsrun.com/2011/week-0131.php), we have a blurb about how we heard Stephen Hass's victory in the Millrose 2 mile in 8:48 was worth $6200 last week.

That got us to thinking:

"How long would the line be at the Nairobi airport if we announced we'd pay $6,200 to anyone that could show up and run 8:48 for 2 miles?"

I thought it would be a fun question to ponder. Sort of like one of those questions they ask you at a consulting job interview.

How does one go about thinking about how many Kenyans can run 8:48 for 2 miles?

This is the kind of thing they ask you at a 'consulting job interview' Rojo? How would YOU answer?

I figure it like this:

Cheapest round trip Nairobi to NYC is about $1200. Expenses in NYC for two nights will run you about $400 (if you are cheap and/or resourceful). Since only one person can win the $6200, and it is unknown how many others might make it to the starting line with equal or better credentials than you, I'd say the only way to win this game is not to play.

How'd I do, Rojo?

malmo wrote:

Since only one person can win the $6200

That wasn't the stipulation, just something you inferred. The question stated:

"if we announced we'd pay $6,200 to anyone that could show up and run 8:48 for 2 miles?"

Given the fact that flights are ticketed and only people with boarding passes will show up at the airport, I don't see why the line would be any longer than usual. There are only so many flights and so many seats on those flights and you'll only come to the airport if you already have a seat booked. There may be increased activity on Travelocity, but the line at the airport wouldn't be any longer than usual.

kartelite wrote:

That wasn't the stipulation, just something you inferred. The question stated:

"if we announced we'd pay $6,200 to anyone that could show up and run 8:48 for 2 miles?"

Yes that's what I inferred. "We'd pay anyone $6200 to show up" is an absurd proposal. I just moved the exercise within the bounds of reality. If you insist on walking down Absurdity Lane then why not offer a briefcase full of cocaine, $50,000, and gaggle of hookers (a group of hookers must be a gaggle, right?) and see if Charlie Sheen will show up? You know, an intellectual exercise just like you'd see in a consulting interview?

i wonder if bekana daba could have run under 8:48 win the millrose 2 mile race on friday night in new york, catch a plane to houston, be a last minute entrant of the houston marathon, runn the race, take a bathroom break and win the marathon by about 3/4 of a mile.

i dont know if daba could, but i know rupp could.

Bevy of pros or a clouder of hookers ?

malmo wrote:

kartelite wrote:

That wasn't the stipulation, just something you inferred. The question stated:

"if we announced we'd pay $6,200 to anyone that could show up and run 8:48 for 2 miles?"

Yes that's what I inferred. "We'd pay anyone $6200 to show up" is an absurd proposal. I just moved the exercise within the bounds of reality. If you insist on walking down Absurdity Lane then why not offer a briefcase full of cocaine, $50,000, and gaggle of hookers (a group of hookers must be a gaggle, right?) and see if Charlie Sheen will show up? You know, an intellectual exercise just like you'd see in a consulting interview?

1. You're wrong in saying that the originally-framed question is absurd, because it's really not. It comes down to "how many Kenyans could we reasonably expect to bust out a 2-mile in 8:48?" How is that absurd? I think it's more or less what rojo's asking.

2. Your answer of zero is still wrong, basic game theory tells you that, and experiments and pretty much any analogous real-life situation would confirm it if you think about it for half a second.

Okay, I'm going to say you have almost no one in your line. Even in Kenya that sort of ability is rare, and I seriously doubt that there are many of them hanging out at the airport on any given day.

^You don't know Kenyans than. About a thousand athletes in Kenya can run 2:11-2:13 marathon. I'm guessing around the same number can do a 8:48 two- mile. At least 1/5 i'm sure if offered would run.

8:48 equates to a 29:49 10k or 1:06 half marathon, I am sure there are a lot of Americans that would have shown up too if they were offered $6,200 for this type of effort. Have we confirmed this amount? If it's accurate there are a lot of agents out their that didn't do a very good job representing their clients.

Malmo: 10/10 for delivering the absolute truth

Rojo: 0/10 for trolling his own site.

rojo wrote:

In our week that was column this week (http://www.letsrun.com/2011/week-0131.php), we have a blurb about how we heard Stephen Hass's victory in the Millrose 2 mile in 8:48 was worth $6200 last week.

That got us to thinking:

"How long would the line be at the Nairobi airport if we announced we'd pay $6,200 to anyone that could show up and run 8:48 for 2 miles?"

I thought it would be a fun question to ponder. Sort of like one of those questions they ask you at a consulting job interview.

How does one go about thinking about how many Kenyans can run 8:48 for 2 miles?

First of all, you would take into account the selection bias of doing it in an airport. Many people in Kenya don't have the money or the reasons to travel, so they stay on their farm. Those who do travel may not be representative of the whole population. In that case, I would guess you still get a pretty good number of pro runners.

That said, I have no clue. If I had to guess, I would say 10. Maybe that's a little low, but of course you're not going to reach everyone in the airport, only the people around you.

Really??? wrote:

^You don't know Kenyans than. About a thousand athletes in Kenya can run 2:11-2:13 marathon. I'm guessing around the same number can do a 8:48 two- mile. At least 1/5 i'm sure if offered would run.

Well there are about 40 million people in Kenya, so that's still pretty rare.

kartelite wrote:

2. Your answer of zero is still wrong, basic game theory tells you that, and experiments and pretty much any analogous real-life situation would confirm it if you think about it for half a second.

You're a mathematician. Show me the proof? "Basic game theory"

rojo wrote:

How does one go about thinking about how many Kenyans can run 8:48 for 2 miles?

You'd have to visit all the villages in Kenya's side of the Great Rift Valley to really know...if word got out to everyone, though, I'd say a few dozen max. 30? How many Americans could run 8:48, or 8:13ish for 3k? Not really that many, when you think about it.

I hope all this goes without saying that an 8:48 at the garden is at least an ~8:30 effort at BU or the Armory.