Second warrior revolution.
It's hard not to give Derrick the edge, as he's had more consistent training overall, even with his injury last winter. However, German did beat Derrick at World Jr XC after missing several weeks of hard training trying to avoid a hairline stress fracture that kept him out of indoor nats and other races that season. It's certainly a possibility, which will make the race exciting.
I'm a fan of other runners their age too -- Puskedra, Mecheso, Lowe, and don't forget Estrada. None of them are chopped liver, and are all capable of a top 5 finish. From what I can tell, all of them have had some challenges the past two years.
I do think German has the most talent, but being injury prone could definitely prevent him from reaching full potential. Either way, I fully expect nearly all of this group to be doing even greater things between next week and 2012.