Predict Ryan Hall's Chicago time based on his performance at Philly today.

Track Fan wrote:

Compound that with a cross country flight and it's no surprise he was tired in the last 11K of the race.

You can NOT be serious. I hope.

Flying two time zones should be a *complete* non-factor. Look at the east Africans who were taking trains and taxis and sleeping in airports to get to London last year after the Iceland volcano shut down European flights. No excuses.

My answer depends on what Hall is shooting for time wise. Let's just say he is going for 2:07. We can expect him to run that pace for roughly 10-12 miles, not even attempting to stay with the leaders and compete and then he will begin to tire, slow and come in around 2:09:45.

Nice MP + 5sec/mi workout Mr. Hall. Bet you nailed your workout and are feeling good going into the last 3 weeks before the only day that really matters. What I'm curious about is what did you did before and after the run/race...

2:14:23

He'll run 2:09 or just under, will run his race and never be factor

not fast enough to be a TT marathoner...nor tough enough to win...a great front runner in an average field...

I think it depends how he comes out of Philly mentally. If he actually was trying to hit a good one (1:00-1:02) and he ran that slow, it might make him a little timid at Chicago.

If he trained his ass off leading up to Philly with no rest at all and his legs just felt flat, he'll be fine.

Hall seems to rally well for the marathon, and I am going with dead legs in Philly...2:07:50.

I'm going to go with an awesome time of DNF.

douglas burke wrote:

kidane did not run a PB, she has run 1:08.09

Newcastle-South Shields is an aided course so it doesn't count. Her real PB from iaaf.org: 1:08:31 Philadelphia, PA 19/09/2010

2:11:23

He said he was trying to run 4:40 pace, or 60:low, but could not handle the pace that day for more than 5 miles.

He's done. He hasn't recovered from his "normal" run up Tioga Pass and in fact, beating a bunch of "normal" runners seems to have gone to his head. He'll be lucky to break 2:10. Worse yet, living at altitude this long has drained Hall of "speed." He knows only how to run slow. Doesn't he know that running a good sea level time requires many months of training at sea level...not altitude. Altitude should be used in doses, such as 4-6 week blocks with a 1-2 week return to sea level prior to a a major competition. Geez, his coaches should know this and have read the peer reviewed literature! Over-hyped...

Juicy Juice wrote:

I'm going to go with an awesome time of DNF.

Yes.

Runs across the finish line skipping, laughing, and holding hands up, with my 2 fat neighbor chicks who are "running" the marathon........4:48.27.

He then comes over later to Stanleys for Live Band Karaoke with JoeFo on the lead, Timmy banging drums, and Lori and John strumming along. Of course Sammy Wanjiru will be there to celebrate after beating some serious ass. After my signature rendition of 'Melt With You' by Modern English, all three of us will then get on the bar and sing 'Jesus Take the Wheel' where Sara joins us halfway through the song.

After leaving Stanleys, all 4 of us will go to The Weiner Circle and order a Chocolate Shake. I will then pull a Minglewood and Sara will come home with me where, unfortunately the only thing I might get off of her are her favorite Bible quotes.

That will be his 'Time' in Chicago.

2:07:500-- guarantee

It sounds like he's overtrained and may be in a down cycle. This has happened to me, I know the feeling. But there is a chance that he didn't time his descent from altitude right. I find that after about 3-6 days at sea level, I am at my flattest, and then I start to pick up again. It might be good for him to stay at sea level until Chicago, rest and do a couple good tempo runs, 3 to 7 miles at race pace. It could be that he's ready for 2:06 with cool weather. I hope so because I cheer for all the runners, I don't hope for some of them to show poorly, as seems to be the case on internet message boards.

Mick Lovin wrote:

The Dense Fog wrote:

2:07:24

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HAH! Add a few minutes to that. Big competition. Getting big bucks. No more hunger. 2:11. Same effort as he did in the Olympics.

Now we see why the marathoners from the 70's and 80's ran better, longer. They had to if they wanted to eat.

NO! the marathoners from the 70's and 80's didn't run longer or better!

Hall already- 2:08:23, 2:09;04, 2:06:17, 2:12, 2;09;41, 2:10:36, 2:08:41. That is 7 World class runs by 70's and 80's measures. Only Bill Rodgers managed that many world class runs and his BEST ever was 2:09:27! He only cracked 2:10 three times! The rest only got one or two real good races out before they were done. Dick Beardsley 2;09 at grandma's and 2:08 at Boston, oh and a 2:11 at London I think?. A bunch of 2:13 to 2:16 range but nothing else world class. Meyer- 2:10 at chicago?, 2:09 at boston. Managed a 6th at the 88 trials. Al sal was close, three sub 2:10's at NYC, the 2:08 at boston, then a 2:09 in japan and a 2:10 in rotterdam, and 2:11 at the trials so that is 7, equal to Hall, but then he was done. Hall will run more.

this is the biggest thing people are missing with the modern guys. Meb and Hall have run more World Class marathons then anyone in USA history before them. they may not have had the big wins that others got, against less compitition- but there is nothing that can be done about that, you have to win in your own generation and I don't have a problem with that, but they have run world class way more times.

Meb- 2:12 at nyc debut, 2:10 at chicago, 2:11 for 2nd at olympic trials, 2:11 in near 100 degree heat for silver at Olympics, 2:09 for 2nd at NYC, 2:09 for third at NYC, 2:09 for third at boston, 2:09 at london, 2:09 to win NYC, 2:09 at boston. He may have run another 2:09 at london in there I don't remember. Point is that is at least 10 top class marathons!

Oh and on the point of the OP's post- I'm picking hall for a sub 2:07. He is training hard he knows he is fit, they now know he was a bit over the red line coming in and that he isn't ready to run 2:57 per K for the marathon. But no reason he can't run 3:00 per k.

I tend to believe he is over-trained or tired. 3 weeks rest will do wonders. But the real variable is the weather. If it's cool and overcast, I'd estimate high 2:06. If it's sunny, and especially if it's warm, he could go 2:11+.

Mr. Spock wrote:

I tend to believe he is over-trained or tired. 3 weeks rest will do wonders. But the real variable is the weather. If it's cool and overcast, I'd estimate high 2:06. If it's sunny, and especially if it's warm, he could go 2:11+.

I agree with all of this logic. Live long and prosper.

My worries come from his quotes before the race, not his actual time. He said he felt better and stronger than last year ... and then he ran 2+ minutes slower. Only he and Mahon know exactly how his prep and leadup compare to last year. If he truly ran through this more but has been having good workouts he should be fine. All that said, I'm guessing he'll be in the 2:07-2:08 range, maybe 2:06 if it's a perfect day.