Ursus horribilis wrote:
Rupp ran a 60 in closing his previous best of 27:35, and we all thought that was impressive. Obviously he was nowhere close to that in closing a 27:10. Solinsky has 4+ seconds on Rupp in the last lap of this event, off of any decent pace, until further notice.
It actually impresses me the ignorance on this board sometimes.
First off, you are referring to a race back in 2007 when we thought a great kick for Rupp was when he "outkicked" solinsky in a 13:30 5K and really neither of them had much of a kick. Maybe 2:02 for their last 800. Nice closing speed, but not a blazing kick.
2009 was the year that Rupp displayed closing speed, and yes he did it indoors in his 13:18 5K (putting nearly 2 seconds on chelanga in his last 200) and in multiple races outdoors. Yes most of them slow for him but he was closing out in things like 2:25 last 1000, 3:59 last 1600 on like 4 or 5 occassions and in situations where he was running 5K's on top of 10K's.
Sorry, but you can't do that if you can't kick a lot better than he did the other night.
What happened the other night was not what he can kick off of 27:15 pace. It was what can he come in at when he leads the race when it's the hardest and deals with the anxiety of having 3 guys sitting on you the whole way. If you guys don't appreciate the toll that takes, you simply have never been there. The energy spent on thinking about the laps and keeping it on pace, combined with the energy spent from the anxiety of being sat on (knowing that you may well lose the race that you made happen) is pretty substantial. And while obviously it can't be measure, it cannot be debated that it takes it's toll. I saw the race and it was pretty obvious that Rupps face shifted from "job at hand" around 7-8K to "what's going on behind me?" around 8K. That's about the time Rupp started to look really vulnerable and I'm sure that's about the time the doubt came in.
You start hoping and wondering if someone might go around you so you can tuck in and not think for a minute and start wondering what else will unfold. That just takes it out of you after 8.5K tracking AR pace.
I'm not saying Rupp could have beat Solinsky, that was Solinsky's best night ever by far. But what I'm saying is if Rupp was running in Solinsky or Chelangas place he would have had a very different finish and much bigger kick. I think you would have seen Rupp jump on it from 1200 or 1000 out knowing that 27:00 was in reach and likely Solinsky would have gone with him and stung him but they very well both may have gone under 27:00.
Haven't you ever been in a track race where you were not in the lead and you knew you could win it? You just had that feeling that things were clicking and despite the pace you knew you felt right? Do you remember that feeling, that adrenaline, that confidence? Think about how it affected how you finished the race. Now think about if you were ever in a race that you thought you should win and were leading, and yet someone you thought shouldn't be with you IS with you late in the race. That doubt and stress that starts building up changes your outcome. Apply that to the laps upon laps that you have to deal with that in a 10K and the affect is amplified.
Lastly, Rupp just outkicked solinsky indoors at 3K in a race that really mattered, qualifying for a world championship. Rupp is supposedly a 10K guy and solinsky a 3K-5K guy and your saying that Rupp cannot outkick solinsky?
The reality is from 1500 - 10K these guys will go back and forth in the near future unless one of them stops improving or the other one really pulls away. Going forward it's more likely that Rupp would come away in front on the 10K side and Solinsky on the 1500 side but again as we've seen in the last couple months anything can happen at any of the distances.
One thing we know for sure, Solinsky will never have the luxury of sitting behind Rupp for 9100 meters again unless he's actually struggling.