Thanks for the thread. Today (2/1/10) will be my only chance to get on the board until after the indoor Heps are over--glad to see there's already been some discussion.
I went to the Ivy performances site (http://www.directathletics.com/lists/track/55_485.html) and took a look at the marks posted there. Based on that, and assuming my math was correct (I didn't proofread it, and won't), ignoring fractions (life's too short), and using 10-8-6-4-2-1 scoring, I came up with these virtual-meet scores:
MEN
Cornell 203
Princeton 175
Dartmouth 58
Penn 52
Harvard 35
Yale 33
Brown 21
Columbia 8
WOMEN
Cornell 114
Princeton 104
Penn 78
Columbia 73
Brown 62
Harvard 52
Dartmouth 27
Yale 13
So my picks? As usual, I'd love to be wrong, but: Princeton, both sexes.
Here's why. On the men's side, a huge slug (29) of Cornell's points are in the heptathlon. We know that is likely to change dramatically--almost the only guys who've *done* a hep so far this season are from Cornell.
Moreover, PU--which has four guys under 4:10 in the mile and the two fastest in the 3000--gets a grand total of two points from the 4x8, DMR, and 5000 listings combined. (They haven't run a stud DM and have no 4x8 or 5k times yet.) They certainly can expect major points in those.
And, of course, Princeton handled Cornell head-to-head this weekend (granting that neither team went for the absolute max in points, and that some events were different from those that will be in the Heps).
Similarly, Princeton's women have the two fastest times in the 3000 and in the 5000--with four different individuals. Given that the 3k/5k is a doable double, I'd expect to see a ton of points for them from those events at the real Heps. Cornell just doesn't seem to have the strength in the field events, this time, to overcome that.
Otherwise:
The men's meet, despite outstanding individuals from almost every school, should still be another dual meet. I have no idea why Columbia's men have disappeared--their virtual 8 points come from the relays and they have no one who's top-six (to date) in any individual event.
Columbia's women, on the other hand, are developing into real contenders and might even beat Cornell in the 4x4--when did Cornell lose that last? And, beyond that, the women's meet has more "good" teams than the men's and should be strongly contested into the second day.
Finally: Penn is doing a good job (on both sides, actually). They seem to be consistently underrated, and I'm not sure why. Despite the flashiness of the female stars from Columbia and Harvard, Penn could hang in for third in the real meet.
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By the way, I based these points on the men's meet's not including the 200, and the women's not including the 500, 1000, or DMR. I think I got that right, but am open to correction on the events or my math. Or my analysis.
Okay, that's it. Have fun, all. GO BIG RED!