"point spread" for average person vs Bolt in 200m

good for you wrote:

For many (if not most) Americans, middle school or high school is the fittest they are in their life. The average person will be much less fit after graduating from high school. 27.00 is a stretch.

Wrong.

50th percentile for 13 year old boys (end of middle school): 8:06 mile

50th percentile for 17 year old boys (right after graduating from high school): 7:04 mile

Source:

lone pine wrote:

Wrong.

50th percentile for 13 year old boys (end of middle school): 8:06 mile

50th percentile for 17 year old boys (right after graduating from high school): 7:04 mile

Source:

http://www.presidentschallenge.org/educators/program_details/physical_fitness/qualifying_standards.aspx#

13 year old is more like the middle of middle school (7th grade) and 17 years old is junior year of high school (it's not right after graduating from high school). I said middle school or high school so that includes both of them. I stand by what I said. When most people leave high school, their sports days are over. Most people don't go out to the track for fun.

And those standards are based on a 1985 survey. 1985!

what can the average guy my age run in the 200?

if satch can break 40 I WOULD BE SUPRISED but very few men 68 0r over can break 3 minutes for a 200, less than 10% . at least 50% would dnf and some would die

I run a mid-16s 5k and could MAYBE run under 30. I'm 25 years old and people who don't know me look at me and know I run. I know I'm a slow runner, but no way is 30 seconds average for a non-runner.

What could wejo and rojo run for a 200m right now? That is your answer.

Hmmmmm

I'd say 35s for the 200 for a 40 year old man. I mean, it does take some endurance to keep running at your top speed for 200m. If they did the same thing for the 100, the average guy would prolly run 15-16s.

calling all jo s wrote:

What could wejo and rojo run for a 200m right now? That is your answer.

An out-of-shape wejo raced rojo in the 400 a year or two ago, and the times were 60 and 62. So I would say they can run a 27-28 second 200.

We are discussing people living in the U.S. where the average person walks less than 300 meters per day. Where more than half of the citizens have a BMI of 25 or more and some 30 percent are considered obese.

There is NO WAY the average person (who doesn't walk more than 300 meters per day mind you) can run a 27 or 28 second 200, male or female. No effing way.

I am probably one of the most active people I know. I ride my bike to work. I run 60 miles (or more) per week. I hike, I walk all the time. I think I would have a hard time cranking out a 28 second 200 right now.

lone pine wrote:

good for you wrote:

For many (if not most) Americans, middle school or high school is the fittest they are in their life. The average person will be much less fit after graduating from high school. 27.00 is a stretch.

Wrong.

50th percentile for 13 year old boys (end of middle school): 8:06 mile

50th percentile for 17 year old boys (right after graduating from high school): 7:04 mile

Source:

http://www.presidentschallenge.org/educators/program_details/physical_fitness/qualifying_standards.aspx#

That test is so inaccurately measured in more than half the cases. I have seen so many kids lie about their mile time or extremely exaggerate. My friend and I (both on the track team) easily won jogging a 5:44 / 5:45, the next person to finish was about 6:02-6:06 cause we were watching.

Funny how suddenly 10-15 other guys broke 6:00. Heck, each other grades were easily won in relatively slow times.

FR-Don't think anyone broke 6:00!

SO-5:14 (well, this was faster because there was a fast soccer kid actually trying to run VS some of our fast sophs). I'd say about 6-7 broke 6:00

JR- 5:30ish. About 3-4 broke 6:00

100% of the sub 6:00 runners were either runers or soccer players

So out of a school of about 1700-1900 about 15 or so boys broke 6:00, while on the girls side about 2.

Yet, we would hear lots of the other kids brag about how they broke 6:00, 5:30, etc., and then suddenly hear about how my friend and I suddenly dropped a minute faster when we asked them how they could have beaten our time when we were the firsts to finish.

I did four easy 200m repeats starting at 30s and ending at 26s today in racing flats. I actually enjoy going to the track in the evenings and doing short repeats. I don't know anybody my age who likes to do this. I'm probably in 21 minute 5k shape and 2:10 800m shape though. I am thinking of putting in some mileage by doing two-a-days and doing hills. My endurance is really poor. The comeback is on!

I'm in the 35 or so camp, maybe slower. In college I ran really close to 4 minutes for an indoor mile, so I've got better than average speed. I run 75 miles a week, ran a lot more way back in the day (by way back i mean like two years ago). Anyway, I can still run 5:20's for around 12k in a tempo effort, so I'm not out of shape. I'm not sure I could run 27 right now. In fact, I'd probably bet against it. Now, if I took a month and did some speed work, sure, probably 26, maybe even 25, but there is no way the average person can run 27. Not happening, no way.

27 is fast. I have no doubt that I am faster than 90+% of the average males that I see on the street-in their cars or on the sidewalk, at work, in the grocery store, hardware store, restaurant, school, picniking at the park, at the library, etc in a 200, and my best 200 is only about 29 (self-timed, with a rolling start). I'm distance oriented (6 mile PR well under 30 min), with limited sprinting ability, but you are talking about guys off the street with no training.

I turned 40 earlier this year, so I'm kind of old. More recently, I've been doing occassional 16x200s (Summer of Malmo style) and can only top out at 31.x, even when really trying. But, that's still enough that I can outkick most at the end of local trail/xc races against guys who are in about 16 min 5K shape. Yeah, I know the speed at the end of races is not the same as raw speed, but the average guy off the street is not going to outsprint me.

I will test this theory tomorrow morning as i begin sprint training to cut body fat down.

I am a slim 31 year old man of moderate fitness. 6 ft tall with 31" inside leg.

Jogged twice, two weeks ago.

My routine is:

6x 30 second all out sprints with 4 minutes rest between each.

I reckon i will cover 200metres in first two runs and then quickly depreciate down to hopefully 100metres by the 6th. wishful thinking??

Depends on the age, weight, gender, fitness level of the "average" person.

If you are talking about the median 200m time for all 300m+ Americans, my guess is that it is probably north of 50 seconds.

If you are talking about only 25 year old males, it is still north of 35 seconds.

I'm guessing the Average Person DNF.

Point spread infinity

I think less than 5% of males aged 18-35 can run 27 seconds on a 200m.

I'm a 19 year old male who runs somewhere around 28.X for a 200m. I pretty much have zero speed. Could be that I'm too small, weak, and skinny to run decent sprint times (5'4 110 lbs). I don't lift at all and barely do any speedwork.

coach d wrote:

I'm guessing the Average Person DNF.

Point spread infinity

If we are talking about the mean time then obviously this would be the case. It only takes one DNF for the mean time to become infinity.

More sensibly, talking about the median time, even as out of shape as folks are I seriously doubt that more than 50% of the population would be unable to walk 200m.