I know there is a big difference between 4:08 and 3:59.99 (over 2 sec a lap) but with the stakes being so high and coming from an indoor track to outdoor tracks, could they break it under the right conditions (possibly with rabbits)?...will anyone really set up a race in which they think that they could do it with the right pacers?
I don't think anyone is going under 4:03 this season.
I think a few athletes will dip under 4:04, with at least three making a serious run at sub-4. This year's mile potential is huge, even better than last year's group. Fernandez and Finnerty's races were impressive last year, especially Finnerty's Midwest Distance Gala 4:01 (I saw it live), but this year's group has more speed amongst their ranks. Here's to hoping a few of them can at least make a run at the four minute barrier.
Mac Fleet is the guy to watch for. He ran 4:09 to win Reebok and 4:08 (bumped around) for 3rd at Nike without any other races or sharpening work, while the other two guys have had serious racing seasons. This is a guy who can run 48 in the quarter, runs 60-70mi/wk and won the CA State XC title.
look at their improvement curve just from this year.
from BIG to NIN, there hasnt rly been a drop in any of their times after 2 mnths of training
SEXCguy wrote:
I know there is a big difference between 4:08 and 3:59.99 (over 2 sec a lap) but with the stakes being so high and coming from an indoor track to outdoor tracks, could they break it under the right conditions (possibly with rabbits)?...will anyone really set up a race in which they think that they could do it with the right pacers?
I thought the race was only 1605 meters, but since you said it was a FULL mile I am now clear that they ran an entire mile and not just part of it.
I think the fastest mile will be run by one the 800m guys, if you can run a sub-1:50 800m and you are a very good XC runner, I don't see any reason why you can run a mile. However, I don't see anyone going under 4, but I can see a half dozen guys going sub-4:05, which in the grand scheme of things means more than one singular sub 4. In fact I would not be surprised if one or two run guys in the 4:02-3 range. Every year we get a bunch of kids who seem capable of sub-4, but it never happens. There is a reason for that, which partially lies in the fact that great times are usually run in time trail type races where one kid who is head and shoulders above the everyone else and takes control from the guy and races against the clock (ala Ryun). The other situation is racing against pros and getting pulled along (ala Webb). When you get several H.S. kids in a race of equal ability, they generally get in each other's way or end up racing each other instead of the clock. In fact Fernandez almost got caught in that trap for half of last year's NON 2-mile, the record was not in hand until he separated from the crowd and starting racing the clock, which is what he did from the start in his 4 minute 1600. The really good news is that there are several kids in the pipeline that in the next year or two, you might see a couple of sub-4 if their development trajectory continues.
Don't sleep on the Johnson kid from Ocean City NJ, if he is healthy, fit and gets in the right race, I can see him as one of the sub 4:05 guys.
TrackCoach wrote:Don't sleep on the Johnson kid from Ocean City NJ, if he is healthy, fit and gets in the right race, I can see him as one of the sub 4:05 guys.
However, assuming attendance by qualified individual, he won't be the first guy from NJ across the line.
Fleet run 48 seconds for a 400?? I don't know about that...maybe 50.0
The runner with the best chance at 4 minutes this year is Robby Andrews.
[quote]on the runs wrote:
Mac Fleet is the guy to watch for.
not a bad pedigree. his dad, dale fleet was the top 2 miler in the nation in 1971 close to 8:50 and the ca state champ, in a year that was loaded with distance talent.
Lostboy wrote:
The runner with the best chance at 4 minutes this year is Robby Andrews.
That was my reference. Acquaintance of his dad.
Fleet has run 1:50.4 and split 47.x according to him. He can certainly run under 50. 48 open is about right.
TX already has about 10-11 guys sub 4:20...
I believe there is 5 or so at 4:15 and under, from TX alone.
We will be seeing a number of fast times all around this year, particularly in the mile and 800. The 2-mile will still be pretty good, however, with guys like Reed Connor/Dunbar/Haile.
Personally, I think we will see maybe 3-4 guys (in the nation) go under 4:05, and possibly a few sub 1:49s. I think the 2-mile will be somewhere between 8:42-8:48 for the winning time.
Franque Soda wrote:
Lostboy wrote:The runner with the best chance at 4 minutes this year is Robby Andrews.
That was my reference. Acquaintance of his dad.
Wow, that was one of the lamest attempts at name dropping I've seen.
Fleet has run a 47 split in a relay. i saw it happen. There are half a dozen guys that can go under 1:49 this year.
Well, here's the deal. They ran 4:08 in the FULL mile. If I were their coach and wanted them to run sub-4, I would have them race an mile that was less than full to get them the coveted 3:58.
Every time somebody uses the term \"full mile\", at least two or three people think they\'re clever and make a lame attempt at a joke. When discussing high school races, \"full mile\" is a perfectly legit thing to say... the 1600m is raced more often. When a high school runner talks about his \"mile PR\", he\'s usually referring to a 1600 PR. I don\'t see why it\'s so wrong to distinguish between the two distances.
Elias Geydon... first sophomore sub 4 ???
thecatinthehat wrote:
Every time somebody uses the term "full mile", at least two or three people think they're clever and make a lame attempt at a joke. When discussing high school races, "full mile" is a perfectly legit thing to say... the 1600m is raced more often. When a high school runner talks about his "mile PR", he's usually referring to a 1600 PR. I don't see why it's so wrong to distinguish between the two distances.
mile=mile
1600=1600
Was that so hard?