Kenyan Olympic Marathon Team

They have plenty to choose from. About 30 under 2:10 just so far in 2008.

I don't get why people still think Tergat is a possible option to make the team.

To be honest, and really,let's be honest, Tergat is not even among the top 25 Kenyans who should be picked. That is not an exaggeration; it might actually be an understatement. People really need to get real on this topic. Tergat was a great champion, and is a terrific guy. But his Olympic career is over.

It should be, and probably will be, Lel, Wanjiru, and Cheruiyot. Obviously 8 or 10 guys who could conceivably be gold medalists will be left out.

Tergat announced today that he is out of shape and won't compete in Bejiing.

He has had a fantastic career and given us all so many highlights for which we are eternally grateful. But it appears his work is done. If he competes in a marathon here and there in the future I will take it as a sign that he loves the sport too much to retire. But it is not fair to him to still expect victory. And it is not fair to anybody if the Olympics are deprived of Lel, Cheruiyot or Wanjiru.

Lel and Cheruiyot have won the two big spring marathons both in great times. They've both demonstrated a long and succesful competitive record. Probably the two greatest marathoners right now with the possible exception of Gebresellasie.

I think there is a very small argument for leaving out Wanjiru in favour of Kipsang (who I think will be unlucky to miss out when he could have a reasonable medal chance- I think if he ran he would beat one of the three athletes) but realistically it was a fantastic run in London by Wanjiru and given the historical failure of Kenyan athletes in the Olympics aside from Japanese trained Kenyans especially with it in Beijing it would be crazy not to run him. Doubly so given his young age and the fact he could realistically be running at the top level for another 15 years.

Wanjiru to me is starting to look just slightly suspect at the finish though admittedly the losses are mostly to Lel who is scintillating.

Pity that Ivuti pulled out as I think he could have been a contender as well- realistically if he and Cheruiyot had both run fantastically today then selectors would have a much larger dilemma.

Bryn_R wrote:

Wanjiru to me is starting to look just slightly suspect at the finish though admittedly the losses are mostly to Lel who is scintillating.

Wanjiru has long been suspect at the end of a race, it's just that there's usually no one nearby to catch him. Lel knew going into the race that, if he was anywhere near Wanjiru at the end, he would beat him. I don't remember the exact quote, but he said something pre-race that implied as much.

One other flaw I think I see in Wanjiru: he looks better suited for the half than the full. His half PR is 1:10 better than Ryan Hall's, but his marathon PR is now only :53 better, when you would expect something more like a 2:00-2:30 gap.

That said, Geb, Wanjiru, and Lel all look to be in shape to take shots at the world record in 2009. As long as Lel isn't in the same race as Wanjiru, I'd say Wanjiru has the best shot of the three.

Lel, Wanjiru and Kipsang - not even close. Stop over rating a Boston win - its not that big a deal anyore.

What are you smoking? 2:00-2:30 faster than Hall would be a world record. He's new at marathoning. He's had a lot more half experience. Give him time. He's not ready for that yet.

Agree with you to an extent but the problem has been that we haven't been able to see him in a sprint finish purely due to the fact he has run away from everyone. Lel has taken him twice now quite convincingly.

Is it just me (which it might well be!) that has a feeling that if Wanjiru had stayed in Kenya he would just be another one of the extremely good by US/UK standards but not great marathoners? He seems to just mesh very very well with the Japanese system and it's turned him into someone that can run away from the other Kenyans whilst in Kenya he would be with the lead group usually but continually get outkicked?

Just feels like that to me. He seems to be a "grafter" as it were if you can use that term for a sub 59 HM runner! It makes me wonder just how quick all the other Kenyans could be under that system...

I think Cheruiyot has proved himself a very capable runner and whilst Boston may not be what it once was. Winning it year after year in such convincing fashion as Cheruiyot has deserves credit.

Sammy in Holland wrote:

Lel, Wanjiru and Kipsang - not even close. Stop over rating a Boston win - its not that big a deal anyore.

It's not so much that Robert Cheruiyot won Boston, but that he has now won Boston 4 times, has that course record, a win at Chicago, and a World Marathon Majors championship. If nothing else, that speaks to consistency at the highest level.

I believe Wanjuri will fair the best of the 3 his smaller size will help with the heat

wondering... wrote:

What are you smoking? 2:00-2:30 faster than Hall would be a world record. He's new at marathoning. He's had a lot more half experience. Give him time. He's not ready for that yet.

Uh, yeah. Last I checked, Wanjiru's 58:33 (1:10 faster than Hall's 59:43) is the world record in the half-marathon. So it doesn't take much smoking of substances (legal or otherwise) to conclude that he may have world record abilities in the marathon.

He's already within one minute of the world record in the marathon. If his half-marathon speeds translates into marathon speed as well as it has for Geb & Hall & Tergat (and most other elite marathoners), it means he's capable of sub-2:04, maybe 2:03:30 (and, for that matter, 2:00-2:30 faster than Hall).

Finally, I think he is ready for that in 2009. If you have the half-marathon WR and you're within 1 minute of the marathon WR, it's time to start looking for ideal conditions for taking a shot at the WR.

Likewise, Ryan Hall has the half-marathon AR & is within 1 minute of the marathon AR. Hopefully, he'll take a shot at that in 2009. It's a great time for marathoning, in the U.S. and in the world.

Bryn_R wrote:with the possible exception of Gebresellasie.

"Gebrselassie"