National Intelligence Estimate: Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003

Peeps went from this:

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to this:

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I love peeps wrote:

Its kinda funny how you think that people who do wrong should be allowed to get away with it.

Life is costly and dear. Want to keep living? Start fighting. But do so for the right reasons.

Whoa there. I never said what side I'm on. That just immediately struck me as kind of funny when I read your post. Don't assume, cause in this case, you're semi-wrong.

YAY. Now 700,000 Iranians might not get killed within the next five years. It's a good news day.

peeps points out the obvious.

you already picked a side by being in america/so dependent on oil. Iran is important because of the oil, thats always been peeps point from what I've observed.

Apparently it will take at least 10 years to switch off oil, and we have 8 or so years to go. Wars in the meantime are the only way. Hopefully we make, we might not.

hey, why hasnt anyone mentioned Iran's president Acmedinijad? he makes claims all the time about wanting to kill the infadells (Israel and America). no one seems to take him seriously, but honestly, this guy is like the next hittler or at least wants to be. are we gonna sit back and watch as israel is destroyed?

iranistan wrote:

hey, why hasnt anyone mentioned Iran's president Acmedinijad? he makes claims all the time about wanting to kill the infadells (Israel and America). no one seems to take him seriously, but honestly, this guy is like the next hittler or at least wants to be. are we gonna sit back and watch as israel is destroyed?

Ahmadinejad isn't the ruler of Iran. That's what no one seems to realize. Real power in Iran lies with Ayatollah Khameini.

All of his bluster and all of his bravado isn't even directed at us. It's directed at the Iranian people.

Why do you think he's being so obstinate about inspections and negotiations if Iran's not trying to build a nuke right now? It's public relations. It's so the Iranian masses will feel good about their government's ability to defy the Great Satan.

Iran should have nuclear weapons. Pakistan, India, China, Russia, Israel do, so why not Iran.

If you invade and occupy Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan, then what do you expect, really now ? Islam will destroy the invaders if it takes 1,000 years. Islam has done it may times before. The Mongols were kicked out after many centuries. The British were cupcakes in comparison, and were defeated once Islam acquired modern weaponry. The Nazi-Zionists will be kicked out once Islam deploys it's own nuclear weapons with help from friends in Russia, China, Pakistan, and North Korea.

Biker wrote:

Who the hell are you? Tony Snow?

Bush is trying to "deescalate" the situation? He's trying not to look like a complete f-ing jacka$$ after the entire world has dismissed his claims on Iran. Our own intelligence community confirms what all of our allies and enemies suspected. And Bush turns around and says this just confirms my a$$backwards bellicose policy towards a country I don't understand and not to mention my 2006-7 policies are responsible for halting their weapons program back in 2003 because I am crazy like that.

We all look like jacka$$es and rightfully so.

I am sorry, I don't mean to make a personal attack toward you, but this sort of apologism towards Bush is completely unwarranted and frankly frightfully naive.

Biker, take a deep breath. I'm no Bush apologist. And I am in the Intelligence Community. If you read the NIE carefully, it says the Iranians probably suspended their nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. This was the work they were doing to build an actual weapon and fit it to a delivery system (a program they have always denied and continue to deny). The work to become proficient at enriching uranium continues. As does the work to build delivery systems (ballistic missiles).

A nuclear weapons program has many aspects, some which can continue under the guise of legitimate civilian use. People are interpreting the NIE to mean that the Iranians were innocent all along and the international community was wrong to pursue sanctions against Iran. This is most definitely NOT what the NIE says. Iran is still not in compliance with its obligations under the NPT, or additional protocols concluded with the IAEA to make their program fully transparent and defuse the situation.

The U.S. has been letting the Europeans take the lead on the Iran problem. It was French Foreign Minister Kouchner who recently said the Iran nuclear program could lead to war. And, I can tell you, the Israelis are extremely pissed Bush has released the NIE. The Israelis feel betrayed and don't feel the Iranians have really stopped the program. I'm telling you, the Administration released the NIE in the hope of cooling things off a bit so it can focus on other goals in the Middle East in the final year of the Bush presidency.

This is my own analysis of the situation and I haven´t read it anywhere, so please take it for whatever it is....

After considering the most recent international proposals of reigning in its nuclear ambitions, Iran came out a few days ago and said that their nuclear facilities were no longer an issue for the UN to consider. Granted, Iran has stated this kind of thing before, but the Europeans in particular were disheartened and disappointed at Iran´s continued stubborness. Now, a couple of days later, the United States releases a report that justifies Iran´s claim that it´s nuclear program is no longer (for the time being) an issue for the world to be concerned about. Europe was floored, Israel is pissed, and nobody seems to understand why the United States would offer Iran such a victory while pushing for further sanctions. As Europe stated, such continued sanctions against Iran are now dead in the water.

All of this makes me believe that the United States must have cut a secret deal with Iran. Why else would we make Iran look so good and leave Europe and Israel wondering? Because, in the long run, Bush and the United States are going to look even better. After Bush leaves office, for example, he and fellow Republicans are going to be able to say that the Axis of Evil speech wasn´t such a crazy thing after all, that he identified his enemies accurately, and that he left office with each of them kept at arm´s length.

Personally, I think that Iran really did shut down some of its more visible reactors in 2003, but that the United States knew about that all along. The deal follows that Iran would shut down its secret reactors if the United States agreed to make them look good by saying that Iran had had all of its known reactors shut down since 2003 and thereby ease up on the sanctions. Of course, there must be more going on here of which I have no knowledge. But those are my initial thoughts, anyhow. Take them for however much they´re worth.

Biker wrote:

I am sorry, I don't mean to make a personal attack toward you, but this sort of apologism towards Bush is completely unwarranted and frankly frightfully naive.

No, he's right. The administration - for whatever motivation you would like to believe - has really backed away from an attack on Iran and this NIE (whether truly independent, or politically skewed) is a convenient, face-saving way of breaking that to the public.

RunDaddy wrote:

I've read the classified NIE and the intel that backs it up. ...

I hope you mean "de"-classified NIE and you're not on some loser messagebored spouting off on intel you've no right to be blabbing about.

Bush looked very irritated in the news conference yesterday. In my opinion, the intelligence community did not want to be left holding the bag this time, when/if Bush decided to bomb Iran.

So, they performed a little "pre-emption" of their own.

zse wrote:

Bush looked very irritated in the news conference yesterday. In my opinion, the intelligence community did not want to be left holding the bag this time, when/if Bush decided to bomb Iran.

So, they performed a little "pre-emption" of their own.

The intelligence community doesn't order an NIE. That is done in response to consumer request, as it were.

this just proves bush has his own agenda regardless ofthe welfare for the nation...he needs to go, cheney too...

NO, as scott ritter has very well pointed out the NIE (as well as all other intel) has yet to prove that Iran ever had a nuclear weapons program. And in his viewpoint (a very well versed and vested one) they have never had one.He was 100% correct about Iraq.

freedom lover wrote:

If Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003 I think this is sweet vindication from Bush. It would mean both they and Libya stopped going nuclear after Bush invaded Iraq.

But this report really doesn't mean anything. The Iranians probably want everyone to turn the other way and then they'll flip the switch, convert to weapons grade uranium and have a bomb. We have to remain on their ass.

I don't see why liberals think this hurts Bush. This is vindication for the Bush Doctrine but this does not mean we can turn the other way.

Clinton let Pakistan, India, and N. Korea get nukes (please don't tell me it was bush on N. Korea) and Bush is turning back Libya and Iran.

RunDaddy wrote:

And, I can tell you, the Israelis are extremely pissed Bush has released the NIE. The Israelis feel betrayed and don't feel the Iranians have really stopped the program. I'm telling you, the Administration released the NIE in the hope of cooling things off a bit so it can focus on other goals in the Middle East in the final year of the Bush presidency.

of course they are pissed, they wanted to bomb Iran or to get us to. Now that plan is way on the backburner.

I think you give Bush too much credit. You say they strategically released the NIE..... but in reality RunDaddy, they KNEW it would be leaked one way or another. I mean, c'mon, look at the leaks in the past 7 years! The NY Times or someone else would have gotten hold of someone that would have quoted key findings(maybe you? ha ha...). And if that had happened after Bush continued to state his "Iran might be nuking us any day now" BS, he would have really been humiliated. I don't think certain people in the intel community would have stood for the admin spinning their actual findings into lies, so someone would have spoken up. In short, it was better Bush release it now and face the music, then to continue his war build-up talk, or even actually bomb Iran, and then have it come out that he knew all along that Iran was no threat. He HAD to release this NIE, because the facts of it would come out sooner rather than later.

mattk wrote:

this just proves bush has his own agenda regardless ofthe welfare for the nation...he needs to go, cheney too...

yeah they can go. 7 years is enough time of tormenting us.

they got their fare shake, they have nothing to complain about.

It's hard to blame the Israelis for being a tad bit worried about Iranian intentions. Iran has not exactly been ambiguous about what it would like to see happen to the state of Israel.

Anyway, your point that the NIE would probably have been leaked is true, though unfortunate. But, I don't see what music Bush is facing. His policy towards Iran was built off the best intelligence available on the Iranian program. The intelligence in question was not acquired until this past summer and it took several months to verify its accuracy. It also took some time to coordinate on the NIE. It's not like the president knew all along that Iran had suspended its program (and, again, I emphasize the word 'suspended').

Sometimes you need to take the 'hate Bush' lenses off and try to look at the issue dispassionately. The next president is going to have to deal with this too, and he or she may be a lot closer to the Bush policy than you'd care to believe.

I have taken a deep breath, a time-out, and shotgunned a few cups of sleepytime tea.

I would like to agree with RunDaddy, perhaps Bush is trying to soften his promise to deal seriously with Iran (much like he did with the Hilary Plame promise to fire anyone involved, sorry, had to get that in). However his press conference shot that theory to hell because he bent over backwards trying to reassert his WWIII premption policy and that this NIE report further mandated it (which as even you stated it does not).

I don\\\\\\\'t think Bush would cut Iran a deal under the table because I think he is a true believer when it comes to his own policies. I don\\\\\\\'t think he is liar. I think he\\\\\\\'s ignorant, overly self-assured, and a bit delusional. He only surrounds himself with others who will facilitate his simplified version of reality.

Sure Iran is not playing nice. Acmadinijad has staked his career on thumbing his nose at us and vilifying Israel. But he is not pulling the levers as others have stated. Iran needs to be contained and we need to put pressure on them but declaring their royal guard terrorists and spending all of our international airtime declaring them the big world meanies only plays into their regional agenda. Let\\\\\\\'s isolate them (collectively with Int\\\\\\\'l support, NB not going to happen under Bush), and publicly ignore them. And let\\\\\\\'s get serious about limiting our oil consumption, once and for all. Of course we need to be hostile towards those that will continue to deal with Iran and their weapons program.

Nobody here is claiming Iran doesn\\\\\\\'t want nukes. Why wouldn\\\\\\\'t they? It\\\\\\\'s a no brainer. But who has the balls to sell materials to them? A few come to mind but what do we know? Do we have the balls to withhold the almighty dollar if we find out? Under this administration clearly corporate interests and our need for oil take precendent.

OK, back to work in my crazy liberal think-tank.