Pac-10 Championships Predictions

If everyone were running,

1. Galen Rupp

2. David Torrence

3. Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott

4. Russel Brown

5. Austin Ramos

6. Diego Mercado

7. Michael Coe

8. Hari Mix

9. Kenny Klotz

10. Yosef Ghebray

11. Kyle Alcorn

12. Mark Matusak

13. Nef Araia

14. Kyle Shackleton

15. AJ Acosta

16. Hakon DeVries

17. Daniel Mercado

18. Jeff Helmer

19. Jon Harding

20. Drew Shackleton

21. Andrew Jones

22. Ben Engelhardt

23. Joey Heller

24. John McGuire

25. Kari Karlson

1. Oregon: 1 3 6 9 15 = 34

2. California: 2 7 10 12 25 = 56

3. Stanford: 4 8 13 16 24 = 65

Nef was second last year --- at NCAAs, is he really that far back here (I do not know of his condition, so maybe). Kiptoo-Biwot and especially probably both Mercados seem possible but optimistic, as might be Klotz. This would add 10-15+ to Oregon and drop 10-15 from Stanford, although Stanford may not care about this race so much. Taking Oregon up 15 points and dropping Stanford and Cal a little gives 49 53 54. That makes it a pretty good battle that will make calculations during the race hard to do with much reliability.

Look for Rupp and Lambie to take the individual titles at Pac-10's.

Clearly Nef did some bad racing at pre-nats. Barring some physical ailment or freak accident, I'm pretty sure he will be in the top 10 at Pac-10s, maybe higher.

26mi235 wrote:

Nef was second last year --- at NCAAs, is he really that far back here (I do not know of his condition, so maybe). Kiptoo-Biwot and especially probably both Mercados seem possible but optimistic, as might be Klotz. This would add 10-15+ to Oregon and drop 10-15 from Stanford, although Stanford may not care about this race so much. Taking Oregon up 15 points and dropping Stanford and Cal a little gives 49 53 54. That makes it a pretty good battle that will make calculations during the race hard to do with much reliability.

I highly doubt that Cal or Stanford will be that close to Oregon. They have already been running without Rupp and stomping. Even if they run without him at Pac-10's it will be a wide margin. If AJ even runs he may be there 7th man unless he pops a big one, they have too many guys that could vie for the 3rd-7th positions.

If Rupp, Kiptoo and Diego are all running they should all be shooting for top 5 finishes. Diego was 9th last year as a true freshmen, Rupp was the champ and Shadrack seems to be in great form this year and may even position himself for a shot at the title. Then you follow up with Daniel, Carlos, Klotz, Acosta or a number of other guys who could be in these positions.

What will be interesting is to see if Cal can hold of Stanford. History suggests that Stanford will be prepared for these end of season big meets and Cal will fail to perform. Unless Nef has some serious illness or injury going on, he'll probably start running close to potential. In a few days we'll know.

I can't believe Alcorn is still around, seems like the Smith era was so long ago now. Wonder if he regrets not staying at Oregon.

Cal will probably be third but they could be worse. They will live and die by the success of coe and matusac. Torrence should be solid reguardless.

No one has mentioned garrett heath and unless I missed some injury or something I'm sure he'll be up there. Nef should do better unless there is something wrong with him.

Garrett is coming back from something based on his first race this season. When he ran at Santa Clara the weekend of pre-nats. His time was a rather weak 25:39. That said, I remember Chris Emme ran like 15:40 for a 5k the same weekend a couple years back, finished top 20 at Pac-10s and was Stanford's #3 at NCAAs in like 60th place.

Does anyone know why his little brother didn't run at pre-nats? If little Heatch had run at pre-nats and finished with at least DeVries (he beat him at Stanford Invite), Stanford would have looked much better. If Garrett were completely healthy (he was their second man last year at nationals, I think) Stanford would be the only school with a shot to knock off Oregon.

Men

1. Oregon

2. Stanford

3. California

4. Washington

5. Arizona State

6. UCLA

7. Washington State

8. Arizona

Women

1. Oregon

2. Arizona State

3. Stanford

4. Washington

5. Wahington State

6. Arizona

7. UCLA

8. California

9. Oregon State

10. USC

From Dellinger Invite:

1. Oregon

2 Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott, Oregon 23:24

9 Carlos Trujillo, Oregon 23:46

12 Kenny Klotz, Oregon 23:49

15 Danny Mercado, Oregon 23:53

16 Diego Mercado, Oregon 23:53

26 A J. Acosta, Oregon 24:01

29 Scott Wall, Oregon 24:02

From Clackamas (4 Miles)

1 McNamera, Jordan Unattached 19:15.11

2 Wheating, Andrew Oregon 19:26.89 1

3 Chapa, Joaquin Oregon 19:35.51 2

4 Trujillo, Carlos Oregon 19:36.90 3

5 Matthew, Frerker Unattached 19:41.62

6 Acosta, Andrew Oregon 19:42.47 4

7 Knox, Caleb Washington 19:42.94 5

8 Mammone, Chris Unattached 19:49.53

9 Cravens, Mathew Oregon 19:49.73 6

10 Batch, Ian Willamette 19:51.99 7

11 Michel, Paul Unattached 19:53.08

12 Hall, Chad Unattached 19:55.91

13 McGrath, Michael Oregon 19:56.14 8

14 Dettman, Matt Oregon 20:00.05 9

15 Werhane, Pat Unattached 20:01.99

16 Withers, James Oregon 20:02.65

17 McNally, Kevin Unattached 20:03.07

18 Flynn, Ricky Lynchburg 20:05.12 10

19 Dettman, Eric Oregon 20:06.36

20 Trujillo, Esteban Oregon 20:08.16

From Corvallis (All of these guys are Oregon)

MEN'S INDIVIDUAL RESULTS (8,000m)

Name Sex Team Overall Place time

Stoutenburgh, Isaac M Unattached 1 24:10:00

Werhane, Pat M Unattached 2 24:10:00

Withers, James M Oregon 3 24:12:00

McNally, Kevin M Oregon 4 24:12:00

Winter, Chris M Unattached 5 24:21:00

Hall, Chad M Unattached 6 24:26:00

Trujillo, Esteban M Oregon 7 24:38:00

Cravens, Mathew M Oregon 8 24:46:00

Laverty, Keith M UO Running Club 9 24:48:00

That there are another handful of Oregon guys that I didn't include who were a bit more down the lists.

This team is deep and insane. How many guys are there? Do they have 20 guys who can run under 25:00 for 8K cross?

Watch out for Matt Frerker, the redshirt freshman from Portland. Going to be a good one. I wonder if Connor will pull his redshirt for Regional/NCAA's.

Alan Arkin wrote:

Watch out for Matt Frerker, the redshirt freshman from Portland. Going to be a good one. I wonder if Connor will pull his redshirt for Regional/NCAA's.

Why would a coach do this? I'm not saying it won't happen, I'm really asking why. If you sit a freshman all season and then race him for the first time at a championship you're putting him in a terrible spot. He has no opportunity to adjust to college racing, he just has to go out and hit a home run in his first at bat. It's not the best thing for the individual because he'd do better in his fifth year than he would as a freshman with no experience. If there was a good chance that the coach was going to call him up at championship time it would have been better for him and the team if he had been racing all season. The team may need another man in the race but if the team's hurting badly enough that the coach would consider throwing in a redshirt freshman who hasn't raced yet, then it's just not a good year for the team and you might as well throw in someone else and let the freshman keep his redshirt and race later when the team is more likely to be good.

In this case, the coach would do it because the team's 4/5 are looking a little weak, Frerker is running VERY well and it looks like close to the current 4/5, though I can't find any results where he's raced with the varsity guys. The west, once again, is rediculously deep, and Portland is looking like the 4th best in the region at best right now, possibly as far back as 6 or 7. Frerker has raced twice thus far, his 19:41 from clackamas, and 24:34 at Willamette, finishing right ahead of UW's Abbott. Abbott finished right with UP's 4/5 at pre-nats, running 24:37 to UP's 24:35 and 24:37 for their 4/5. Their next guys finished at 24:51 (open race) and 24:55. A bad race from one of the current 4/5 at regionals and the pilots may be sitting at home in november. Running Frerker would seem like an insurance move, as I doubt he's much better than Longmuir or Houck, but it may still be smart to run him at regionals "just in case". Besides, I don't think he loses his redshirt status if he runs in less than 1/5 of the school's races (wearing a Pilot jersey of course). Postseason rules could be, and likely are, different, but it's possible he could just run regionals and not run nationals and not forfeit his RS status.

Does anyone on here think that ASU women can beat Oregon women for 2nd in conference. Based on Pre-Nats, I can't see a Pac 10 team beating Stanford - too much depth.

Theories anyone?

The stanford women aren't going to lose. They're way too good up front. Their top two women look like the favorites, and they don't fall off from there. It'll be a battle for the second place between ASU and Oregon. I take Oregon over ASU by less than 5 points. Stanford beating Oregon by 12 or so.

worked out okay for Franklyn Sanchez in 2000 as a true frosh

3 races all fall:

1. Big east: 2nd by a little to eventual NCAA champ, Keith Kelly, after leading by a lot

2. NCAA regionals - 8th overall

3. NCAA finals - 5th overall in country.

Okay...he's not your typical frosh, but the point is it makes sense in some cases...

i don't know, but i'm sure they have 10 guys who can run under 24:00 for 8k. they had 5 run under 24:00 at dellinger, with acosta and wall at 24:01 and 24:02, and no rupp either. that right there would be 8.

schumacher reshirted withrow his freshman season, then let him rip one at usa xc nationals, where he got 4th and finished 60th at worlds. sometimes there is a reason/method that us on letsrun, in our infinite wisdom, just cannot see.

I think the ASU women can sneak into second place behind Stanford if Olson runs like she did at Pre Nats. But I also think the Washington Huskies can sneak into second place also if Campbell, Follett and Miller all run well at the same meet. Here is my women's top 10.

1. Lambie

2. Mc Walters

3. Blood

4. Kingma

5. Campbell

6. Hardt

7. Follett

8. Kosinski

9. Cocco

10. Follmar

irun wrote:

schumacher reshirted withrow his freshman season, then let him rip one at usa xc nationals, where he got 4th and finished 60th at worlds. sometimes there is a reason/method that us on letsrun, in our infinite wisdom, just cannot see.

Both Withrow and JS agree that Withrow was not ready in the fall. I saw him at the indoor meet where ran a 3000 unattached. He looked pretty good the first half running with a couple of guys who apparently were doing a tempo race workout. After they dropped he ran a 30 then a 32 to finish in 8:06 which was probably 4:08/3:58 and might have been 4:11/3:55. Still, that was not that strong relative to what Wisconsin had for indoors so they held him out to get maximum flexibility to train and recover. It worked out because not only did he make the team, he finished as the first American in the race. How many guys can't make their XC squad but finish as the top runner from their country (and the squad only had one foreigner, I think).