Any chance the WC men's 1500 final will go sub 3:32?

Sub-3:32 in a championship race? After two rounds? Are you serious? If you're not a troll, you're an idiot. There's my analysis.

Yeah! That's never happened.

Jebediah Springfield wrote:

Yeah! That's never happened.

Haha.

I was going to predict something between 3:32 and 3:34. But with the favorites all having strong kicks, anyone who pushes the pace early will surely pay the price.

Dirk Diggler wrote:

Sub-3:32 in a championship race? After two rounds? Are you serious? If you're not a troll, you're an idiot. There's my analysis.

Three of the last four WC 1500ms were won under 3:32.

I think it will be slow. Look at the semi's- slow and tactical. The heat and humidity could have worn them out more.

It then becomes anyone's race- or at least anyone who is in good position when the kicking starts.

I hope I'm wrong.

Does anyone else think Webb needs to take it out the first lap to try and make it an honest race. Hopefully being able to tuck in after that then see how it plays out. Or if he took it out and then tried to relinquish the lead would the pacing become "laggering" again?

Mtn Dew wrote:

Dirk Diggler wrote:

Sub-3:32 in a championship race? After two rounds? Are you serious? If you're not a troll, you're an idiot. There's my analysis.

Three of the last four WC 1500ms were won under 3:32.

SERVED!!!! WHERE YOU AT SON?

Mtn Dew wrote:

Three of the last four WC 1500ms were won under 3:32.

Those three were run and won by the world record holder though, he left and they ran 3:37 last year.

I'm predicting 3:33-3:35

Stones? I dunno about that... The WC is not a place for time, but hardware. A tactical race with this field though could dip under 3:32. I do think the best strategy for Webb is to get out early, but it is usually suicide in these races to try and win them tape to tape...

mcordi wrote:I think it will be slow. Look at the semi's- slow and tactical. The heat and humidity could have worn them out more. It then becomes anyone's race- or at least anyone who is in good position when the kicking starts.

I hope I'm wrong.

The fact that the semis were slow only improves the chances that the final will be fast. Semis are tactical by nature: the ideal race is one in which you qualify comfortably without running fast.

You may be right that people are running a bit tired tomorrow, but then again, this is only a 1500. Most of these guys have been spending 22 hours a day in an air-conditioned hotel and a total of 8 minutes or so exerting themselves this week.

On the other hand, as I mentioned in another post, I have a hard time seeing how anyone in this field improves his chances by pushing the pace. There are about seven or eight guys who can run under 3:31 and no clear favorite to run away from any of them. And the favorites all have excellent kicks. So who dares set a fast pace? He who does will be a sitting duck.

who really cares? wrote:

Mtn Dew wrote:

Three of the last four WC 1500ms were won under 3:32.

SERVED!!!! WHERE YOU AT SON?

Ha-ha! Straight SERVED! Where is he? Why, off analyzing the art of servitude, of course.

I agree with you. I'm just afraid it will come down to a kick because of the reasons you mention. Webb has shown this summer that he can kick with the best of them. But, will he be in position?

I get antsy watching those tactical races- elbows, spiked feet, etc.

I remember Seb Coe saying that you have to be close to the lead, top 3/4, and on the outside ready to pounce. With so many runners bunched together it's nerve racking.

Is there anyone in the final who would benefit from a fast pace? Will someone think that it is in his best interest to take it out fast?

team tactics come into play.

The Spaniards and Kenyans are bad kickers, compared to Mansoor, Lagat, Webb, and Ramzi. These guys will take it out to push the field and improve the chances of their better runners. Asbel Kiprop and the Slow spaniard are probably sacraficial in nature. They will get eaten alive by the kick experts, along with Nicky and Baddelley have no shot in hell. An Algerian may push the pace as well.

You basically have 3 teams pushing the pace to improve the chances of one of their guys, 2 guys with no hope, and the a dog fight between the rest.

No one is sitting. This will be one of the most exciting 1500M ever, mark my words boys, mark them well. I have dealt with your predecessors and I will deal with you.

Webb needs to pounce with 600 to go. He might relinquish the lead between 1100-1300m but he needs to be top two/three with 200m left. And hope Ramzi isn't in front of him. I think is Alan is coming off the last bend with a chance he is going to win this.

Then again Lagat could pounce from 6 spots back with 300 left and smoke everyone.

1. Webb

2. Ramzi

3. Lagat (always the bridesmaid)

4. Kiprop

5...who cares

its possible, but i'm guessing it will be 3:32 or 3:33 for the winner. then again, El G ran like 3:27 or something insane like that once at the world champs

Run Fast Alan wrote:

1. Webb

2. Ramzi

3. Lagat (always the bridesmaid)

4. Kiprop

5...who cares

Interesting, I'll take...

1. Webb

2. Ramzi

3. Who Cares

4. Lagat

5. Kiprop

just to mix things up a bit

Webb's best (and maybe only) chance is to be no worse than third at the start of the race. The only problem is that he might have to run too hard in the first 100 meters in order to get to the front. If everyone runs slow out of the gate, then he should get to the lead and run a hard pace. He's shown that he can do that, but he can't outkick these guys off of a slow pace. A 56 and a 1:52 pace is what he needs. He might not win, but that's his best chance.

which of the remaining 1500 runners would be fastest in a fresh 200 race? I would peg WEBBY at 21.8 on this track and that he will run last 200 in 26 and finish 4th, at best. HOPE Im wrong.

With the size of the field in the final i think that the favorites might not have much choice than to take it out just to avoid traffic... My money says someone like Kiprop will try an earlier push of the pace....this could really set up Webb as well as Lagat for a strong finish the last 200 meters... Just my lil forecast of the final, USA will go 1,2 and the winning time is 3:32.08......