NCAA Football: Who wins the BCS this year?

And I repeat: Before you guys go and get so fired up about the Buckeyes fans, just realize that everything is setting up SOOOOO beautifully to be a repeat of last year. An undefeated OSU team, which deserves a #1 rating by virtue of the fact that they are undefeated, though far from the #1 team, plays a mediocre out-of-conference schedule and strolls through a soft, relatively speaking, conference, drawing in a bunch of overconfident fans and pundits. And then, well... we all know how the story ends. An early season loss that doesn't take a team out of it, but gives them a serious gut-check, wake-up call is far better than a schedule that gives a team false hope leading up to the penultimate or last game of the season, when dreams are dashed, HARD.

Who has played better thus far than Ohio State? Purdue was averageing 40 points a game until they ran into Ohio State where they score 7 points on the second team. I'm not saying Purdue is great, but man at least Ohio State didn't lose to them. Can't blame Ohio State for the schedule. They've POUNDED all of them so far. USC LOST. LSU LOST. Cal LOST. Can't say you're a great team and deserve to be No. 1 if you LOSE. USF seems pretty good, but brother, they've got some serious stinkers on their schedules too. ALL schools who are any good play some stinker teams. Not all teams can be great, so there have to be bottom feeders on there. No one seems willing to answer the question, if Ohio State doesn't deserve to be No. 1 right now, then what school does? Right now 50 of the 65 first place votes (AP) go to Ohio State. Those are not homer votes. There will be more first place votes for Ohio State after they beat Michigan State and some other teams lose on Saturday.

If Ohio State loses they drop to at least 2 or 3...the BCS gods are HOPING they only drop to 2 if they lose. If #2 South Florida and 3# Boston College win out and Ohio State loses one game then we'll likely have a South Florida vs Boston College national championship. That would be sad and is why we need a playoff system using the current bowls. No one loss team is going to jump over an undefeated team like that so no LSU, Cal, or USC in the national title picture unless those two underdogs lose at least one. The title game should be LSU vs Ohio State. Stanford sucks and that loss killed any hope for USC. UK...is a good football team...holy crap I just said that. Watch Woodson throw the ball. They beat LSU without a running game because their starter was on the DL. UK will beat Florida this weekend (it's at UK). So...if everything works out...if USF and BC lose...if UK wins out and South Carolina loses somewhere....we could be watching LSU vs UK for the SEC title and possible trip to the national title game?....holy shit!

Alan

Sagarin wrote:

The facts: OSU has played the 73rd hardest schedule in the nation, making them the most vulnerable of any team in the top ten, save for Kansas.

Sagarin,

You've got some problems with just looking at that. I know that winning the game is the only thing, but HOW they won the game has to be factored in when considering who is the best. The Buckeyes are only giving up 6.57 points per game. That's INSANE against 7 teams already. Also, many of those who have a harder schedule than the Buckeyes have LOST several games. Boo Hoo for them, but the good teams win brother. Any team in a BCS conference that goes undefeated deserves to be ranked right up there at the top. The reason the Buckeyes are No. 1 right now is because they are undefeated and have POUNDED everyone they've played. They deserve it.

Well, let's ponder this. Here is where the mighty Big 10 stacked up last year, employed by you guys as "corroboration" for OSU's "challenging" run through conference and "#2" Michigan, and below that is where it resides this year.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc06.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc07.htm

Flagpole Willy wrote:

Sagarin,

You've got some problems with just looking at that. I know that winning the game is the only thing, but HOW they won the game has to be factored in when considering who is the best. The Buckeyes are only giving up 6.57 points per game. That's INSANE against 7 teams already. Also, many of those who have a harder schedule than the Buckeyes have LOST several games. Boo Hoo for them, but the good teams win brother. Any team in a BCS conference that goes undefeated deserves to be ranked right up there at the top. The reason the Buckeyes are No. 1 right now is because they are undefeated and have POUNDED everyone they've played. They deserve it.

By the way Flagpole, I'll grant you this argument to an extent, and it's captured in "pure points" or the "predictor," notably NOT USED by the BCS. However, in this scenario, Oklahoma should be #1 and OSU #2.

Sagarin wrote:

And I repeat: Before you guys go and get so fired up about the Buckeyes fans, just realize that everything is setting up SOOOOO beautifully to be a repeat of last year. An undefeated OSU team, which deserves a #1 rating by virtue of the fact that they are undefeated, though far from the #1 team, plays a mediocre out-of-conference schedule and strolls through a soft, relatively speaking, conference, drawing in a bunch of overconfident fans and pundits. And then, well... we all know how the story ends. An early season loss that doesn\'t take a team out of it, but gives them a serious gut-check, wake-up call is far better than a schedule that gives a team false hope leading up to the penultimate or last game of the season, when dreams are dashed, HARD.

I\'ll say what I said in a different thread of similar topic.

As of right now it is not possible to objectively make any inferences about Ohio State. Since they have yet to play a top 20 team, we just don\'t know exactly how good they are. All we do know is that they are really good at beating decent-poor teams.

There is NO evidence that suggests they are overrated; this team started at #12 and only moved up because everyone else in front of them lost. Also, don\'t get this team confused with last years team. If anything, last years experience only helped this team become better, not proved that they are overrated. No one can objectively say that because of last years results, this years team is overrated and will lose.

Sagarin; you are right in what you say about setting up to be a repeat of last year. But you also have to admit that it could possibly be setting up for a redemtion year for the Bucks. Last year they were the top dog and got dominated by a supposedly inferior team. This year, it might work out where they are the major underdogs who come away with an impressive victory. Try and find something that says anything definitively one way or the other. Yes they have a weak schedule, we all know that, but they have not even come close to stumbling against any team thus far, unlike all their peers such as USC, Wisconsin, Michigan, Oklahoma, and perhaps even LSU, even though the LSU loss is not a bad one whatsoever.

For every voice that says OSU is overrated, there is a voice that says OSU is the real deal, and we won\'t know for sure until: they lose before the NC, they lose in the NC, or they win the NC.

By the way, the REASON they are #1 and #2 is because they are both crushing EASY opponents. So while I agree with you to some extent, I agree more with Dauby that it's just not as compelling a point to make.

Nothing you said isn't correct. I have OSU going to the BCS championship myself (though I kind of think Michigan trips them up), but we can and should only revisit this ONCE we have witnessed OSU play some real opponents. And, unfortunately, that won't happen until they visit Ann Arbor in my opinion.

Sagarin wrote:

By the way Flagpole, I'll grant you this argument to an extent, and it's captured in "pure points" or the "predictor," notably NOT USED by the BCS. However, in this scenario, Oklahoma should be #1 and OSU #2.

What the hell are you talking about? Oklahoma, in addition to their LOSS has given up WAY more points than the Buckeyes. They've averaged givn up 18 points per game on AVERAGE. The Buckeyes havne't given up 18 points yet in ANY game, let alone average that much. Dude, you're wrong.

USF is the ONLY team that has a legitimate argument about being No. 1 right now, but even then they lose that argument. Ohio State may lose a game or two or maybe even more, but to date they deserve the No. 1 ranking. They'll deserve it even more after the next game when Boston College finally loses and the Buckeyes pound another opponent.

I wasn't referencing points given up. I was referencing your POUNDED comment.

Flagpole,

USF has beaten TWO ranked teams this season, not one. How could you forget da Bulls over West Virginia?? I think WVA was ranked 5th at the time. If USF beats Cinn, that would make it 3. However, I'm predicting a Rutgers upset win over USF this Thursday (you heard it here first).

flagggggggy-

Are you forgetting? "USF has only beaten one ranked team...Auburn"

umm HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO? forgetting about the pounding of west va which was looking unstoppable with the white slaton combo?

Here's what you don't seem to be understanding Flapole. The model takes W-L record, SOS, AND total margin of victory into consideration (as any good model should), and balances them out according to some arcane, almost actuarial-type mathematical model. To look at merely one component would be myopic. There may be a better, more unbiased system out there, but I haven't seen it. And the model currently has OSU #1, so who am I to argue? But I also see just how vulnerable they are.

Dauby wrote:

"Many consider the rivalry to be one of the biggest in all sports."

Bullshit.

Celtic-Rangers

Real Madrid-Barca

India-Pakistan

good stufff wrote:

flagggggggy-

Are you forgetting? "USF has only beaten one ranked team...Auburn"

umm HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO? forgetting about the pounding of west va which was looking unstoppable with the white slaton combo?

Ah so. Correct. They beat West Virginia. Guess I just think of them as falling off the face of the Earth by season's end. It just hasn't happened yet. But, you are correct. My mistake.

USF has a tougher road. I DO think they have it tougher from here on out and therefore will LOSE (though Louisville and Rutgers have proven not to be all that great this year). Also, USF has 6 games remaining while the Buckeyes have only 5 left. No need to tell you that it's easier to win 5 games than to win 6 games.

Bottom line is both OSU and USF need to win out to be in the BCS championship game. A late-season loss (and this now would qualify as a late-season loss) will drop them out of the top two. Can't see BC winning the rest of their games. Can't see Arizona State winning the rest of their games.

Would take a LOT of help for the Buckeyes to be in the championship game after a loss though I think it's possible. I think if USF loses though, they're done.

Going to be interesting.

I see Ohio State vs. Oklahoma in the championship game. LSU has a shot only if Oklahoma loses (because I think BC and USF will both lose a regular season game and fall far).

Sagarin wrote:

Here's what you don't seem to be understanding Flapole. The model takes W-L record, SOS, AND total margin of victory into consideration (as any good model should), and balances them out according to some arcane, almost actuarial-type mathematical model. To look at merely one component would be myopic. There may be a better, more unbiased system out there, but I haven't seen it. And the model currently has OSU #1, so who am I to argue? But I also see just how vulnerable they are.

The model has OSU #1, so it must be a good model then, because by pretty much any standard imaginable, the Buckeyes deserve their #1 ranking right now. Now LAST year at this point they deserved it and were clearly the best team at this point in the season. Right now they deserve it but while they ARE currently the best team in the country, they are not ON PAPER as clearly dominant as last year's team.

Still though, I actually think this year's defense is better, and as long as the offense keeps putting up decent numbers, they've got a shot against anyone.

I'm amazed they are where they are, but it's not been luck. Boeckman is a damn fine QB, and they got three very good running backs to go along with a couple of very good receivers. Next year was supposed to be their year, but hey, it doesn't always work out that way. Win NOW!

USF has a win against Auburn (at Auburn) and Won convincingly at home against West Virginia.

I also think Kentucky is a legitimate Dark Horse - their come from behind wins are tough.

BC is - well in the ACC - their resume - much like their conference - is smoke and mirrors....

Don't count out the Pac-10 - USC, Cal and Oregon are banged up but will get healthy and perhaps contend - ASU is not.....

Big Ten, much like the ACC is suffering through a down year - I look for Michigan to win out and be the only BCS team - Big Ten pretenders OSU, PSU and Purdue will just beat each other up. ILL is a darkhorse but I don't think they will win out... Big Ten had their chance at domination last year going into the bowls and they blew it... Chances like that don't come along very often (Cal USC this year would have been an opportunity) and it was squandered last year - or - they just were not that good....

Why would it be sad to see USF v. Boston COllege? LAst year everyone on this board was whining because Boise didn't get a shot. Now two fairly unusual teams are up at the top and we are all still complaining...