Mottram & Webb - What do they gotta do to win?

asbel kiprop will not be a factor anywhere. the guy ran 3:35.81 to tegenkamp's 3:34.25 and placed a lot lower than tegenkamp did in that race. unless he has 1:44 800m speed or better, i would not worry about him.

Unrated wrote:

I think Webb does have the strength to close in 146. He has 27:34/ 13:10 strength, add that to 1:43 speed and hes got all the strength he needs in the last 800.

El G had 12,50 "strength" (the correct term is really "stamina".)

Webb cant close in 146. to close in 1:46 you need a Phenomenal speed and endurance, Webb is not EL G, those are 2 different athletes, EL G was on another level, webb 800m best is 1:43.8x (almost 1:44) in a 1500m race and if its his day may be he will be able to close in 1:48/49, thats because he doesnt have enough strenght and endurance to run the last 800m from the front and push it all the way home,

and even if he close in 1:48 that doesnt guarantee that balaa, ramzi, lagate, daniel, kaouch will not still be with him and he would have served them as a pace maker and will be too tired to respond in the last 100m, he have a very strong finish so if i were him i'll wait untill the last 100m and destroy the field! just like he did in all his races this season.

Webb could close in 1:46 if they were at 800m in 2:00+

Mottram got a whooping by Bekele, running 7:35, but also won Ostrava in 13:04.97 out-running T. Bekele, Feleke, Mosop, Ebuya, Gebremariam, Geneti, Kogo, I. Songok(had a sub-par race), and Boniface Songok. That's a pretty good field to beat in a 5k race, although a few of them specialize more in the 10k, so they're not going to have that finishing speed that a true 5k runner has, like Mottram(3:49 mile, 4:50 2000m speed). I thought it was interesting that Eliud Kipchoge decided to run a fast 10,000m(26:49 for 2nd to Sihine) early in the season, when he probably figured(i know at least i did) he would be running the 5k at worlds. Haven't seen him running many fast races lately(no 1500's or 3k's).

In the 5000m, we have Kipchoge, Lagat, Mottram, Limo(Defending Champ), Cherkos, T. Bekele, Ebuya, Songok, and Baday, Jawher, Cragg(who's ran 7:32), and maybe Tegenkamp if we get lucky might fill in as the cliche dark horses. I wouldn't risk underestimating Lagat's potential to still finish strong and fast even though he hasn't really done or won anything that impressive this year, other than the 7:32 he ran indoors. Kipchoge ran 26:49 in June, he's ran 12:47 and beat out Mottram at the Commonwealth games, he's also raced to the finish with and beat El Guerrouj and Bekele in a 5k, and he's still maturing as a runner. I'd have to go with Kipchoge, T. Bekele, and Mottram as the top 3 finishers, but in what particular order is up to them. T. Bekele has been right on Mottram's heals all season, Kipchoge has owned him before, but Limo is fading and doesn't have the finishing speed anymore, Songok hasn't run impressive this season yet, but it's been a slow season for the 5000m in general, barring K. Bekele's 12:49, which is the only sub 13:00 of the summer. Jawher and Baday finished strong with Kipchoge and Sihine though, who are no slouches, so I would keep an eye out for them, but really I think it will be Mottram trying to dictate the pace sometimes, to get distance from the rest of the pack, so he can focus more on racing his real opponents. I think it will be Kipchoge and Mottram alone the last 200m, with Bekele 5-10 meters behind and struggling to keep up but slightly fading, but Kipchoge will dig deep the last 40m a la Webb and win his 2nd World Championship 5000m Final.

people are really too excited and over-estimate Mottram, the african runners will leave him 50 to 80 meters clear in the last 2 lap just like EL G, kipkoch and Bekele did to him in the 2004 olympics.

this is not a meet, in a wolrd championship the african runners will be running for their life.

Webb on the other hand is really strong and is in his prime, he is well capable of bringing gold home.

running for their lives? the 2005 mens 5000m final was won in 13:32 by a 32-year old benjamin limo, and mottram was in the sit-and-kick pack that finished within splits seconds of one another, and he got the bronze. he was with kipchoge until the last 100-200m at the commonwealth games 5000m, and he can probably run a 1500m in about 3:32, so I'm sure he can cover any moves anyone makes. don't forget, he ran 8:03.5 for 2 miles early in the summer, and hasn't really blown his load on anything since then(7:35, 13:05). I'm sure he'll be fresh and ready.

1. Kipchoge

2. Mottram

3. T. Bekele

there is a lot of ignorance kicking around on this thread.

It was Augustine Choge that beat Mottram at Commonwealths not Eluid Kipchoge, that people seem to be talking about here. The world lead for 5km this year is like 13.00-13.01 which while faster than what Mottram has run, is insignificant in the wash-up.

Webb should win if he keeps his head on, Baala is due to have a good championship he has run like a mug since '03 worlds, Kaouch is gone, Komen doesn't handle rounds very well, Ramzi has already written his non drugs "regina" excuses, Heshko will be tough as will Lagat. Remember El G had to lose a couple before he won the big one, how past it did he look in 2004? Lagat is far from done. Kiprop who knows?? if anything all this publicity will make people like webb think they can't beat him and he might just steal it. Would be an outrageous out come though.

1.mottram

2.ethiopian athlete

3.kenyan athlete

ballsy wallsy wrote:

The world lead for 5km this year is like 13.00-13.01

Nope, Bekele ran 12:49.

Thought this poster was a bit funny, especially Kenenisa at the bottom.

http://gallery.therunation.com/albums/userpics/10001/COTD6-29.jpg

man iam amazed by the ignorace displayed by some guys in here.i'll try and give you guys some facts.Firstly on Kiprop,yes his pb is 3.35 but it was at altitudein nairobi logic sugests that he would have run faster at sea level also bear in mind for the last three weeks he has been training with seasoned atletes in the kenyan team so i reckon he has learnt alot which is why i still believe he will steal the show and Webb will come a very close 2nd.Now on Motram; yes he an a 8.03 for two miles and he'll be at his peak but even with that people like Songok,sihineand Kipchoge are naturally more talented than him and that is wha it will boil down to,simply put motram was born in the wrong country. a few more facts;- this year's fastest time over 5000m is 12.49 by kenenisa only a few weeks ago.Sihine has the second fastest time of 13.00 and kipchoge the 3rd fastest of 13.01.About Webb,i agree the guy is hot at the minute but all he could manage was 3.30,i know the other guys haven't un faster than that but i suspect it is because they have been more focused on training hard for Osaka,bear in mind that Komen has run the fastest mile ever recorded in the US this season and on that race Webb decided to stay away from the mile instead go for 2 miles.My predictions are:-

1500-1st Kiprop

2nd Webb

5000-1st Songok/Kipchoge

2nd Lagat

3rd Motram

i think it is safe to say that right now, daniel k. komen and alan webb are in 3:29 shape, and adil kaouch, belal mansoor ali, and mehdi baala are all close behind. i bet webb could 1:43.5 now that he's probably had a bit more anaerobic/lactate threshold training.