Lets add this to the endless speculation, innuendo, and wet dreams that are taking place at the thought of this actually (and realistically) happenning.
People were one Webb when he tried to break the race open after 400m in Helisinki. But do you people think he can win if he does the same thing this time? Say the first lap is slow, 60s, and he punches out a 54s, then "rests up" with a 57s, then closes with a 39s last 300m (last full lap somewhere around 53s.) Do you think he is strong enough to win like that this year. It would stretch the field, only this time he might be strong enough to hold his position and bring it home. The risk here is that he pulls along someone like a Komen, who may not have the experience to win a tatical race, but can win in a time trial when it comes down to who has marginally more in the tank that day.
Stretching the field with a fast opening lap is even more risky, in my opinion, based on what happened to El G in the 2000 Olympics. He was paced by Baba in 54.1-60.6 through 800, but the second lap wasn't fast enough to keep the advantage, and El G waited too long when the pace slowed before going it alone (I'm sure he had the strength to frontrun for the final 900m, instead of 700, and it might have shaken Ngeny. Then again, maybe Ngeny would still have been pulled along. ) So if someone does take it out hard in Osaka, letting the pace slow too much on the second lap might negate the advantage that Webb might gain, assuming he wants a fast pace to run the legs off of people (Assumedly, if there are some team tactics in the final, someone might go this route.) If the race does slow, it would still be risky for Webb to leave it for a short kick, don't you think?
Or what if it comes down to a fast last 800m, like the Olympics? Do you think Alan can run a negative-split, sub-1:47 to close the race? Can Alan win with a long kick for home, like El G 500m out)?
Anyone else have a strategy/scenario they think can unfold?
Mottram now. Another round of Mottram vs. the pack of nameless, faceless Africans. When he won in Ostrava, he had the pack shadowing him, and waiting to react to his move. I don't know if that will happen again, if the African runners learned anything about tactics. He ran 60high, then 53mid (154ish) last 800m to win. There have been posts about the best last lap, and going sub-4 foor the last mile of a 5000m, but what about this last 800m? Mottram beat T. Bekele in the Pre 2mile by running away on the last 250m, but the pace of that last 800 was slower (I think) than Ostrava. So maybe this last 800m could be important in Osaka.
Someone said that in Crystal Palace when Mottram ran 12:55 behind Geb and lost only in the final straight, is last 2 laps were 56/55. Does anyone know if this is true? I haven't seen very much of the race. But I suggest that if he can do that in Osaka (a 152 last 800) - he would be hard to beat, if it is off an honest pace, and not a 1330 race. Morceli did it when he ran a 1303? his first time, and it would be interesting to see if this happened other times - I think Kipchoge did the same thing in a 5000m at Pre in 2003? when he ran 1308.
Personally, I doubt if Mottram ran that fast to close at Crystal Palace. I know he is a 348 miler, and I'm sure he can close fast, but maybe someone who is willing to wind the pace up with 2 laps to go (someone with the balls to lay it down) will beat him. Its a tough way to win, to be sure. But assuming the Africans are not going to be waiting on him like they were in Ostrava, one of them might also beat him in a kick.
One final note about Mottram's outspokeness. He has attracted a lot of fans for making himself so visible. But don't assume that the Africans are boring and passive because you never here from them in the media. I live in Korea, and one thing I have learned is that Koreans express themselves very differently in Korean than in English. What a surprise huh? Not being able to express themselves as agressively in a second language. But I'm sure most of you consider Asian people to be more reserved and passive, and it might be because of this language thing. It's an easy assumption to make. Listen to them talk to each other, and there won't be much difference between what they say and what you (or Mottram) might say. You really think an 18-year old ANYWHERE will be shy about speaking their mind? Maybe Mottram isn't very different from Abel Kiprop, and Kiprop would tell you so too, if you asked him.
I'm just looking forward to seeing how these races unfold, but since I haven't seen very much discussion on how they might go and any possible winning strategies, maybe this would interest some people. For the record, in my heart I will be cheering for the Africans to come through and beat these two, at their best. I will be there, with my Trinidad & Tobago flag, and my Canada flag, in the cheap seats. If you see me, saw hi OK?