Too many young guns running too fast for that record to last much longer. Agree?
Too many young guns running too fast for that record to last much longer. Agree?
no.
Roland Locke wrote:
Too many young guns running too fast for that record to last much longer. Agree?
Probably not. For Xavier Carter to drop to 19.32 from his current pr of 19.63 you are looking at a 1.5792...% improvement, which is possible but difficult.
It is simlar to saying that Webb will drop from his 3:32.52 PR to 3:29.16
Teg from 13:04.9 to 12:52.5
Rupp from 27:33.48 to 27:07.37
But keep in mind that in races like the 200 the start and the intagiables are important. So it has to be a perfect day.
Johnson went from 19.66 to 19.32....right?
The 200 WR is an incredible time. MJ was in indcredible form when he set the time. I beleive the record will last a very long time probably for another 5 years or more. Walter Dix will be the main guy to come close, but to run close to 19.3 perfect conditions need to be had. I would not bet against it being broken this season or next.
Walter Dix will break the record. He's got Michael Johnson-like leg turnover, and remember that the fastest time MJ ever ran in the 100 was 10.09, vs. Walter Dix, who's run 9.93
I was thinking Xavier Carter had the best shot at it since he can also run the 400 like MJ.
so... wrote:
Roland Locke wrote:Too many young guns running too fast for that record to last much longer. Agree?
Probably not. For Xavier Carter to drop to 19.32 from his current pr of 19.63 you are looking at a 1.5792...% improvement, which is possible but difficult.
It is simlar to saying that Webb will drop from his 3:32.52 PR to 3:29.16
Teg from 13:04.9 to 12:52.5
Rupp from 27:33.48 to 27:07.37
But keep in mind that in races like the 200 the start and the intagiables are important. So it has to be a perfect day.
When you put it like that, it doesn't sound like much of a drop at all.
Well you have to factor in a couple of things though.
1) Webb has been stuck at 3:32 since 2004
2) In a 200 you can't just be in shape to run 19.32, you need to world to agree with you. By that I mean the wind, the temp, the start, etc. So while people may be in shape it will take a while to hit the perfect race.
I think Gay has the best chance right now
You will also need a really fast track. Atlanta was off the charts. I don't think anyone we've ever heard of yet will break 19.32 - there may be a middle schooler somewhere though who will break it one day.
Which do you think goes first 19.32 or 29'4.5"? I used to think 19.32 would last longer but now the LJ record may last longer.
that record is not going anywhere. the rest of the world is just closing the gap on where MJ used to be before he demolished the record.
Not a chance.
So all these 19.6's mean nothing? These guys are young!
A coupe of things need to be factored in here.
One is the new, unconventional track put in at Osaka. If it really is worth what people think it is, there might be the first legal 9.6x in the 100, and 19.32 might be a lot closer.
Another is to look at what Dix has already run, and the effect (for sprinters, not dictance people) of the NCAA racing season to set up a massive peak in Europe in early summer. They run a ton of fast races, which tears them down (see Dix' 200m final, for example), then after USATFs they get a couple weeks of rest which sets up supercompensation and (usually) one really big early summer race. If Dix sets it up right and goes to Lausanne to do the 200 like X did last year, look out.
odds on record beihg broken by OLYMPICS, 30% TOPS.
He better not break MJ's 19.32. How else will I remember my ATM code?
A 9.6???????