this is what an expert had to say:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2393#more
Dave Cohen:
"Congratulations, Stuart. I wish the discussion had started here, instead of this being the 3rd installment.
Here's the crux of the matter.
Now, we only have enough data to make a convincing case for when this will occur in North 'Ain Dar, which represented only 500kbpd of production in 2004. However, it is at least plausible, though not proven, that the same thing could be happening in approximately the same time frame in the whole 'Ain Dar/Shedgum region. 'Ain Dar and Shedgum have very similar reservoir properties, very similar oil qualities, almost identical thickness of original oil layer, and were brought onto production at the same time. So it is plausible that they have been produced in parallel, and will be reaching the end of their production plateaus at around the same time.
If this were so, a 45% reduction in 2mbpd of production (as of 2002) would represent about 900kbd (with a large, say 50%, uncertainty in that number for a SWAG at the error bar). This might be enough to explain most of the decline in production from June 2005 to the present (though we would still require some other field in decline earlier in order to offset Qatif and Haradh III). and make up the rest of the overall production decline.
I've saved, and have now looked at, the "bootleg" SPE #93439. Anyway, one look at your Two cross sections of a reservoir simulation of the northern portion of the 'Ain Dar (Figure 9 in #93439) told me it was all over but the crying in that part of the Arab D carbonate reservoir.
I will say that I always said that the Northern Ghawar "sweet spot" was no doubt declining and that the Saudis were trying to fight off declines there from their new "megaprojects". So, please don't shoot me!
However, a putative 45% of 2.0 md/d with maybe a 50% uncertainty does not tell us the whole story yet. Also, it would be nice to have the fractional flow graph for the relevant parts of the reservoir.
So, it is time for the Saudis to come clean and give us the current production data from 'Ain Dar/Shedgum. It's all about data transparency and always has been. This "peak oil" problem just got a lot more serious for me, and I was already really worried.
Nice work, Stuart, some of the best I've ever seen here or anywhere else. You've inconvenienced me — now, I have to rewrite some parts of a story I was doing!"
