Hall's AR converted to the track

a cat.

a tomcat fool

Averaging the rate, he passed 10miles in 46:40 and then ran another 4km, 10 laps. I'd give him about 27:25 on the track for 10km, assumming equivalent climatic conditions.

The rule of thumb between the 5000 and 10,000 is to double the 5000 time and then add a minute. Using a similar adjustment would imply subtracting about 2 minutes (a little more) and dividing by two. This yields 27:52 or so, before considering the time advantage of the track. Assuming that the 20K was accurately measured there is a 0.1% penalty added to the distance (i.e., the measured distance is supposed to be 20,020 meters). This subtracts almost 2 more seconds. The surface probably is worth another 10 at least, and maybe 20. This gets the time down to 27:30-27:40. However, it also assumes that the training was focused on the 10,000 and not the 20K. However, given his marks at 5000, which is worth 27:30 (see rule for 5000 to 10,000 above), I think that 10,000 is probably a better distance for him still.

26mi235 wrote:

The rule of thumb between the 5000 and 10,000 is to double the 5000 time and then add a minute. Using a similar adjustment would imply subtracting about 2 minutes (a little more) and dividing by two.

Well, for one thing, even if the idea that 2*5K + 1:00 = 10K is appropriate, this doesn't translate to 2*10K = 2:00 = 20K because the paces are slower at the longer distances. You wouldn't say that adding four or so minutes to twice a half-marathon time gives the expected marathon time for even the fastest of runners, as no one has come close to 2*59:00 + 4:00, or 2:02:00. You're basically saying that a 35:00 10K (about 5:38 pace) equals a 72:00 20K (about 5:48 pace), and for most runners that's too generous at the longer distance.

To go from distance X to 2X in the range of 5K/10K to half-marathon/marathon, multiplying by 2 and adding 10% happens to be a very close physiological approximation for people well prepared at both distances. This would put Hall's theoretical 10K at closer to 27:34, which is borne out by the fact that his 20K converts to about a 1:01:15 - how many guys who have run that fast for 13.1 and also run serious track haven't broken or at least approached 27:30? Add in the fact that Hall has ~4:00 mile speed and you're looking at a 27:15 guy.

Ryan Hall is the next great in American distance running. He's shown he can do it on the XC course, Track, and he is excelling on the roads. With his 4:00 mile speed and already very competitive 5k time combined with his obvious long distance ability he will have what it takes to take challenge Meb's 10k AM.

Congrats to his little brother too!!! What a talented family