Femke vs. Sydney Paris 2024

No, they won’t enter both events. Both have relay duties. Bol will probably have both the 4x400 & the mixed 4x400.

I love Bol as a competitor. She’s one of my favorite track athletes. That said, I feel that Syd will beat her in whatever they compete in.

Sydney is probably one of the 5-10 most talented track athletes to ever live. That said, I have no clue who will win because she has only raced once this year (in a 4x100 relay) and didn't race a hurdles race or worlds in 2023.

That said, 50.68 is a world away from 51.45. If I were Femke I'd take my shot at gold in the 400 unless it becomes clear Sydney is not running the 400H.

They will both run 400 hurdles and Sydney will win. She simply takes it out faster than Bol and creates a gap. That is the variable that is totally ignored when the two are mentioned together.

Sydney was using 14 steps in Tokyo but she was new to it and hesitant about it. Bol and Sydney were in adjacent lanes and went over every hurdle at exactly the same pace all the way through 8, when Sydney began to pull ahead. Fast forward one year. Sydney was exponentially more comfortable with the 14 steps. Her early tempo was unlike anything the event had ever seen. It was obvious long before the Eugene final. I posted before that race that Sydney should totally ignore Bol and Muhammad, just leave them in the dust. I estimated she could run 50.75 if she ran the Warholm race one year later.

Bol has now switched to 14 steps. She may be faster in year two. There's no reason to believe she'll be anywhere near as quick as Sydney over the first 7 or 8 hurdles. Bol conceded she switched to 14 so she could go out at the same tempo, but have more in reserve late. It worked in 2023. That's great, but it doesn't address the early deficit. You can't cede ground to somebody of Sydney's caliber.

As great as Bol is, it's really not fair to her to compare to Sydney McLaughlin. Prodigies like Mu and Sydney don't have to race frequently or do everything correct. They win on sheer ability.

The mixed relay is crucial for Bol. It is by far her best chance for Olympic gold. Otherwise she may end her career without one.

I sensed the same thing in Tokyo 2021. Bol could have gotten it out of the way in her very first Olympic race. Men anchored that year. The United States fielded a scrub lineup and should have been disqualified in the heat. Bol ran third leg and got stuck behind Swiety-Ersetic of Poland for a long time. Once she finally emerged and handed the baton to Ramsey Angela, it was a narrow lead but not enough. He held the lead until the final meters when he collapsed all the way back to 4th in a tight finish.

Bol bemoaned after the race that she thought she could have done more. Exactly. She was understandably concerned about saving for her own event. But an Olympic gold got away. In smaller countries every medal is cherished, regardless of event.

The Dutch now have a pair of twins who have switched eligibility from Ugandan to Dutch, Eugene and Jamie Omalla. Eugene broke the Big 12 indoor record at 45.18 this year, which is faster than the Dutch record of Liemarvin Bonevacia. Eugene Omalla may quickly shake up the Dutch relay lineup. We'll get a better idea next week at World Relays.

In the Paris mixed final it could easily be Eugene Omalla on third leg, handing off to Femke Bol at anchor. The first two legs would likely be Bonevacia at lead and Lieke Klaver second. That lineup can win, unless the United States fields some of its stars.

Bol started hurdling only in 2019 and in her first year with the 14 strides pattern she already ran the third fastest time ever, only 0.04 slower than Sydney's second best time. She has already more flat speed than Sydney in 400 and she only has to improve her hurdling technique, so saying that she can't be compared to Sydney doesn't make any sense

Meuwly has stated that McLaughlin runs the bends faster than Bol, in particular the opening bend, but they are running the straights the same speed. This is one of the elements they have been trying to work on in training.

You mention McLaughlin's hesitancy in Tokyo, her first season using 14 strides. She ran 51.46 that year. Bol ran 51.45 in her first year using 14 strides at the London DL. So year 1 of 14 strides and they both were the same. Let's see what Bol can do in her second year with 14 strides.

Bol has also improved her speed; 22.6 indoors this winter is no small feat at 6'1, and ranked her 10th fastest in the World this winter.

One of the reasons why McLaughlin was so superior to Bol early on in the Eugene race was because Bol's flat speed had increased significantly that year, but her 15 stride pattern was restricting her natural stride length, and hence she could not go as fast as she was able. One of the reasons they addressed this with the switch to 14s. So comparing a 14 stride McLaughlin to a 15 stride Bol isn't necessarily helpful.

Bol has the speed & ability to go out as fast as McLaughlin, now she is faster on the flat and can run 14 strides. She also has an impressive ability to be able to manage her lactate threshold. All Bol needs is the confidence to take it out and believe in herself. If she goes out too tentatively then she loses. But if she goes out as hard as McLaughlin, she has the over distance ability & fantastic lactate threshold to win. It's all in the head.

50.xx Sydney is a thing of the past, never to return again. The necessary mindset is gone and i dont see how anyone could argue otherwise. 50.xx Bol is a realistic possibility this year. Those that are comparing the 50.6 Sydney to the current Bol are really missing the point here.