How long will it take me to get a 16 min 5k

There is no other way than to devote yourself to the process. Your PR is 19:25, why are you worried about 16? Focus on sub 19. Stay consistent and disciplined in training. Take small victories. Build mileage this summer and run plenty of threshold. Stay on top of VO2 and do some hills sprints every other week.

yeah but i need training advice since i don't have a coach and i'm designing my plans based off of Brad Hudson's 5k to Marathon and Running formula. a 16 min 5k would mean i'm decent enough to actually compete

Look up Canova's base phase. I think there is a thread on here about it. Stephen Scullion gives terrific advice on his YT channel. Sub 16 takes a lot of time and fitness so you might be looking at two years from now.

15.59 might never happen especially if your starting point as a 16-17 year old was 30 minutes for 5k. Training has diminishing returns in terms of time you can shave off. You might just not have the talent. I was running 19 minute 5ks 5 years ago and still cant run under 16.20.

I completely disagree with the above poster. You went from 30 min to sub 20 in 7 months. You have excellent potential. I broke 20 for the first time after 2 years of running when I was 16. It took me 6 more years to break 16 (not really didnt start running seriously until 19, but thats besides the point). If you are patient and understand that this takes time, you can get there. But in the meantime, you need to take it one step at a time.

Well, you seem to have enough talent to quite easy reach a sub 16. Don't think too much of increasing milege, it's more important to run your individual best training paces up to present shape. Good luck. The Magic Wizard 🇸🇪🧙🏼‍♂️🇸🇪

A ways to go but I think you could do it. Focus on the mile.

5k is a long distance. the mile is more fun.

So it took you 5-8 years of running to break 16 and im guessing you started out with a considerably better time than 30 minutes. Its kind of proving my point that not everybody can get there, even with dedication.

19.xx - probably every male can get there with proper training and no serious/chronic injuries.

18.xx - maybe 66% can

17.xx - fewer than 50% can

16.xx - 25%

15.59 - 10%

My first 5k was a cross country race which I ran in the 28's. I agree that not EVERYONE can achieve certain fitness levels, but this kid CLEARLY has potential. You know nothing about development if you think otherwise. Also, these percentages are based off of nothing. Just stop.

thank you, that means a lot

There is little potential running a 30 minute 5k.

Nobody said the percentages were based off anything, theyre just rough guesses.

Impossible to say when or if you will break 16.. I'd say you will based on those numbers.

Follow the process, run two sessions a week (mostly tempo), easy on the other days. Gradually increase the mileage and the minutes of effort you run to 2x what you are on (add 8km/week once per month). Long run can max at 24k / 15 miles.

Race once every few months and have fun watching your pb come down. As some other poster said, it's a good idea to race over shorter distances.. 1500, 3k and even the odd 800m and very occasionally over longer distances (8km). You need a 1500 about 4:20 - to break 16.

My total guess if that is you do the above, you will break 16 in 18 months.

Yes. And you would never have heard of him so you wouldnt be using him an an example.

17 16 15 - so exactly the same sort of ball park i would put the OP in. You seem to be agreeing with me so we must both be buffoons 🤔

Well this thread is just full of buffoons today. A buffoon everywhere you look.

It's a shame your IQ is so low you cannot comprehend hypotheticals. You also cannot comprehend a person's first 5k with minimal to no training is not an indication of potential.

You are contradicting yourself with the second statement.

Go run another 16:20 5k.

Nothing in that reply other than name calling. It says a lot about the type of person you are.

It seems way too optimistic. And surely assumes for no injuries which is uncommon. Aim to knock a minute of a year for the next 2 years and after that it will get much harder.