will the 1500 meter world record be broken soon?

So you weren't around when Ryun was breaking records. I accurately picked you for a baby.

Since you acknowledge Ingebrigtsen "might" improve then it also follows he might not - which is what I said. You have trouble following the logic in your own argument.

You have no clue how old I am. And, yes, you are absolutely right in stating he might or might not improve. Wonderful contribution. Just continue.

Jakob is no longer working with the coach that propelled his greatness. he can live off the interest on that for a while, but I do not expect the principal to increase considerably.

Set aside will J I or won't J I break 1500m world record. Will J Ingebrigten, this summer, split first 800m of a 1500m race in (1:49.5 to 1:50.5) range? To date, all J I 1500m world record attempts have been phony. I do not believe J Ingebrigsen has ever split first 800m, sub-1:51.

J Ingebrigtsen has an 800m talent issue. If he were to split 800m any faster than 1:49.5, a piano will jump on his back. If J I were to split 800m any slower, he has a lack of speed issue. He is not going to make up the difference, final 700m.

Note: W.r. pace, 1500m, 1:49.8 800m split.

But you said suggesting he might not improve showed an inability to think. So you now describe yourself. Great contribution. Just continue. And you show you weren't around when Ryun was running so you haven't a clue about his career.

I know Ryun's career much better than you do.

No no, I'm aware that you thought out this issue deeply and came out with an absolutely true statement: Ingebrigtsen might improve or he might not improve. I can't complain here anything, you are just spot on.

I'm waiting for more such deep insights from your side.

What a stupid argument. Typical of you when you get cornered.

But I was correct you weren't born then or you would have denied it. You avoid that. You are ignorant of the history of the sport. Actually, you're just plain ignorant.

I'm not waiting for them from you.

600m man!

Armstrong stated that many GREAT runners have peaked early. I stated not many of Caucasian origin.

See the 1500m top 100 all time list here1:

worldathletics.org

1500 Metres - men - senior - all

Link:worldathletics.org/records/all-time-to...

where I have chosen past runners of Caucasian origin (not included runners originated from North African even if they have been running for Spain, France or elsewhere ).

The runners are listed after time:

Cacho 28
Willis 32
Cram 24
Coe 29
Silva 24
Hesko 25
Lewandowski 34
Webb 24
Estevez 23
Ovett 27
Wheating 22
Viciosa 28
Manzano 29
Spivey 28
Redolat 25

In total 402 years/ 15= 26,80 in average.

I stated "plenty" of great runners peaked early. Race is irrelevant. I didn't try to put a figure on it but just pointed out that there is no guarantee a runner who is great in their early twenties will continue to improve.

Of course what isn't being taken into account is the increased practice of doping that prolongs careers.

This thread has gotten bogged down in arcane and misguided arguments about whether Ingebrigtsen will improve and by how much. Everything in the future is a guess, not a fact.

In the future you will die. That's a fact. Can you make it to 100,000 useless posts before that?

So you have no interest in discussing the subject of the thread - only me. What a strange obsession.

I am a bit late to react on this post because I had to find the time to do some research (seemy next post).

“ ……under 3.30 without some serious training. This does and will take its "toll" on
his body.”
It sounds like you assume that Jakob´s training has damaged his body compared to if he has trained less “seriously”.
I don´t think this is true. On the contrary I think it is beneficial for an athlete´s body and his
overall health if he/ she trains from a young age and with a significant training load AS LONG AS THE TRAINING IS BALANCED, THAT IS ALLOWING FOR EASY RECOVERY DAYS AFTER MORE INTENSIVE DAYS. AND AS LONG AS HARD ANAEROBIC TRAINING FOR LONGER PERIODS IS AVOIDED, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE ATHLETE IS NOT YET FULLY MATURED PHYSICALLY.
I will turn it around arguing that it is very difficult to reach your full potential in adulthood if you haven’t trained “seriously” in your youth. So if you have trained right you will everything equal be more fit and able to maintain your level better than an athlete who hasn´t trained as “seriously”. You will also stay young longer.
Examples:
Gebrselassie, K. Bekele, Kipchoge, Mo Farah, Marcin Lewandowski, Nick Willis.
Can we find a GREAT runner with a long successful career who wasn’t already great and was training and competing “seriously” AT A YOUNG AGE?
No one can guarantee that Jakob will be competitive into his thirties because many things can happen, including injuries as the last year has shown. But I claim that there is no
reason to believe that he will peak early because of his serious training for many years. Provided he overcomes his injuries and stays healthy he most likely will peak around 26-27 in the 1500m as most runners of European origin AND hold that peak into his early thirties.

In my next post I will show that athletes from other sports where endurance, power and speed also are important are doing well into their high twenties or into their thirties and even into their fourties despite very serious training and competing from an early age.

It is not only in running that early training start seems tobe beneficial:

FROM SOCCER:
Pelé, Maradona, Ryan Giggs, Christiano Ronaldo and Messi. All were fantastic already in their pre teens spending most of their free time playing (in the word´s core meaning) and
continued on a high level for many years playing numerous hard soccer matches weekly or twice per week for a big part of the year.

PELÉ and MARADONA debuted in SENIOR professional soccer at age 15 and on the national team at age 16 and were great until their mid thirties.
GIGGS debuted for Manchester United at the age of 17 and played on the best team as one of the dominating players for 23 years!
MESSI also debuted at the age of 17 (for Barcelona) and was already a key player at the age of 19. He went on to be the most decorated soccer player ever and is still active at a high level at the age of 36.
RONALDO also debuted at the age of 17 playing so far at a very level for more than 20 years.
All 3 of them were also key players on their respective national teams.

FROM CYCLING:
The current top cyclist (according to the official rankings) Van der Pohl, Pogacar, Philipsen
and Mads Pedersen have all been training hard from a very young age. All 4 have also been very succesfull in their teens (Van der Pohl and Pogacar as wunder kids) as they still are at age 29, 25, 26 and 28. Their serious training and racing don’t seem to have taking it´s toll yet.
Cyclists train much harder than runners and also compete much more often, including in the Grand Tours were they have to race new hard etapes almost every day for several
weeks and still most are on a high level in their late twenties or even in their thirties.

FROM NORDIC SKIING:

I will mention a few:
Norwegian BJØRN DÆHLIE started to train seriously in his teens without being the best initially. He, however, trained hard and progressed well, so at around 20 he was about to
break through in the senior ranks which is in no way easy in the world´s best Nordic Skiing nation.
Dæhlie was famous for a very hard training regimen where he in the off season was RUNNING a lot of kilometers. Both long runs and hard anaerobic reps. 100 hours per week. He and another Norwegian Nordic skier have registered the highest VO2 max ever: 96 (The testers assumed it could be above 100 in the winter high season). Did the hard training takes its toll on Dæhlie, so he was on the back side of his career at the age of 26?
Not at all. He won 8 Olympic golds and 4 silver in 3 Winter Olympics from age 24 to age 30. He had planned to retire after the next OG (Salt Lake city 2002) at age 34 but he was
forced to retire at age 33 due to a roller skiing accident. Dæhlie also won 9 WC golds, 4 silver and 3 bronze and was the overall winner of the World Cup 6 times.

Fellow Norwegian THOMAS ALSGAARD started skiing at the age of 3 and was a great junior skier. He won 5 golds and 1 silver in the winter OG from age 22 to age 30 and 6 golds, 2 silver and 1 bronze the WC from age 21 to age 31. He retired at 31 but he came back at age 39 taking bronze in the national champs that year and the next.
The Nordic skiers are possible training and competing harder than almost all other sportsmen but they still seem to be able to compete on a high level into their thirties. At the age of 22 they have hardly started at the highest level yet.

FROM TENNIS
“The big three” Federer, Nadal and Djokovic all started playing tennis VERY early, at age 3, 5 and 4. They were all wonder kids who beat older competitors from a young age.
Winning multiple national and international age group titles.

FEDERER was in an elite junior program from age 8 and trained at age 14 three hours per day. He started at the ATP tour at age 16 and retired at 40 because of back problems.
From Wikipedia:
“Federer was ranked world No. 1 in singles by the Association of Tennis Professionals
(ATP) for 310 weeks, including a record 237 consecutive weeks, and finished as the year-end No. 1 five times. He won 103 singles titles on the ATP Tour, the second most of all time, including 20 major men's singles titles (among which a record eight men's singles Wimbledon titles, and an Open Era joint-record five men's singles US Open titles) and six year-end championships.”

NADAL started tennis very early but didn´t play more consistently before he was 5! He was trained by his (tough) uncle from that age. At 8 he won a U12 tournament. He turned pro at age 14 and won his first Grand Slam (French Open) at the age of 18.
From Wikipedia:
Nadal “has won 22 Grand Slam singles titles; fourteen at the French Open, four at the US
Open, two at Wimbledon and two at the Australian Open. He has been ranked number one in the world for 209 weeks. He plays very well on clay courts, and many people regard Nadal as the greatest clay-court tennis player in history.
Nadal has won 36 ATP Masters Series titles and the 2008 Olympic gold medal in singles. He is a part of the Spain Davis Cup team and has won the cup four times, in 2004, 2008, 2009, and 2011. “

DJOKOVIC started with a mini racket and a soft ball at age 4 and began to train systematically at the age of 6 with a former female handball and tennis player as his coach.
This coach recommanded him to continue at a tennis academy in Germany when he was 12. He stayed there for the next 4 years. He turned pro at the age of 15. And is the current no 1 in the world at the age of 36.
From Wikipedia:
“Djokovic has been ranked No. 1 for a record total of 422 weeks in a record 13 different years, and finished as the year-end No. 1 a record eight times.[7]
Djokovic has won a record 24 Grand Slam men's singles titles, including a record ten Australian Open titles. Overall, he has won 98 singles titles, including a record 71 Big Titles:
24 majors, a record 40 Masters, and a record seven ATP Finals. Djokovic is the only man in tennis history to be the reigning champion of all four majors at once across three different surfaces. In singles, he is the only man to achieve a triple Career Grand Slam, and the only player to complete a career Golden Masters, a feat he has achieved twice.”

All time greats from the past

KEN ROSEWALL
Started to play at age 3. The family had 3 tennis courts. First tournament win at age 9.
Won a U14 tournament at age 11. Reached his first senior final at age 15 and won his first Grand Slam at age 18. Retired at age 47.
From wikipedia:
Rosewall won 147 singles titles, including a record 15 Pro Majors and 8 Grand Slam titles for a total 23 titles at pro and amateur majors. He also won 15 Pro Majors in doubles and 9 Grand Slam doubles titles. Rosewall achieved a Pro Slam in singles in 1963 by winning the
three Pro Majors in one year and he completed the Career Grand Slam in doubles.[3]
Rosewall was first ranked in the top 20 in 1952[14] and last ranked in the top 20 in 1977.
(Age 17 to age 42).

ROD LAVER
Laver also trained and played from an early age starting his senior career at age 15. At
age 20 he reached both the singles, the double and the mix double finals in Wimbledon. He retired at age 40.
From wikipedia:
“Laver was ranked the world number 1 professional playerindisputably for five years from 1965 to 1969 and by some sources also in 1964 and 1970. He was also ranked as the number 1 amateur in 1961 and 1962. Laver won 198 singles titles which is the most won by a player in history.[3]
Laver won 11 Grand Slam singles titles and 8 Pro Majors titles. He completed the Grand
Slam (winning all four slams in a calendar year) in singles twice in 1962 and 1969; the latter remains the only time a man has done so in the Open Era. He also completed the Pro
Slam (winning all three pro majors in one year) in 1967.[5][6] Laver won titles on all court surfaces of his time: grass, clay, hard, carpet, wood and he contributed to five Davis Cup titles for Australia during an age when the Davis Cup was deemed as significant as the four majors.[7] The Rod Laver Arena and the Laver Cup tournament are named
after him.”.

FROM SWIMMING:
I will only mention one, the best male swimmer ever:
MICHAEL PHELPS:
Phelps started swimming at 7 because his mother wanted that he and his sister learned
to swim. They, however, loved to swim and Phelps did so well that he got an age group NR at 10. From age 11 he trained under BOB BOWMAN who has been his trainer during his whole career. Phelps has simply followed Bowman whenever he moved to a new job and is currently voluntarily assistant trainer under Bowman in Arizona.
Phelps qualified for the US swimming team for the 2000 OG at age 15. He didn´t win any
medals but qualified for finals, was no 5 in the 200m butterfly.
Phelps had an unmatched training discipline, never missing a training pass. He trained 13 km each day in the pool, at least 90km a week. In addition he was doing weight training at least three times a week.
His results show that the hard training from an early age failed to “take it´s toll”:

From Wikipedia.:
Phelps “is the most successful and most decorated Olympian of all time[7] with a total of 28 medals.[8] Phelps also holds the all-time records for Olympic gold medals (23),[9] Olympic gold medals in individual events (13), and Olympic medals in individual events (16).[10] At the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Phelps tied the record of eight medals of any color at a single Games, held by gymnast Alexander Dityatin, by winning six gold and two bronze medals. Four years later, when he won eight gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Games, he broke fellow American swimmer Mark Spitz's 1972 record of seven first-place finishes at any single Olympic Games. At the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, Phelps won four gold and two silver medals, and at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, he won five gold medals and one silver. This made him the most successful athlete of the Games for the fourth Olympics in a row.[11][12]
Phelps is a former long course world record holder in the 200-meter freestyle, 100-meter butterfly, 200-meter butterfly, 200-meter individual medley, and 400-meter individual medley. He has won 82 medals in major international long course competitions, of which 65 were gold, 14 silver, and three bronze, spanning the Olympics, the World Championships, and the Pan Pacific Championships. Phelps's international titles and record-breaking performances have earned him the World Swimmer of the Year Award eight times and American Swimmer of the Year Award eleven times, as well as the FINA Swimmer of the Year Award in 2012 and 2016. Phelps earned Sports Illustrated magazine's Sportsman of the Year award due to his unprecedented Olympic success in the 2008 Games. Phelps has set 39 world records (29 individual, 10 relay), which is more records than any other swimmer
that is recognized by FINA; this achievement surpassed Mark Spitz's previous record of 33 world records (26 individual, 7 relay).”
-------------------
The careers of these all time greats from various endurance sports seem to confirm that rather being a disadvantage to train seriously from a young age it is a prerequisite for having a long and successful career.