I'm still beating the drum that the Youngs and Sahlmans aren't as talented as most people think they are. Every school of a similar size has a Young and a Sahlman come through at least once a decade. AF had guys run 4:02/4:03/4:06 all in 2017 without super shoes, and 7 years later, they have guys running 8:34/8:38/8:46/8:58. That's not far off 2022 NP. It's already better than 2020 NP, which had Nico/Jace at 8:32/8:44.
Remember, these guys aren't close to German Fernandez level talents. German was injured for large portions of HS and didn't break out till his senior year. He still ran a CA state XC record, which none of the NP athletes broke, even though they went for it a few times per season, and basically had pacers for a lot of it.
"4:20 isn't fast for a HS boy" is the thing that caused all the controversy, but along with mile times for HS boys, Brosnan also said that we should have more HS girls under 10 for the 2 mile, and more pro guys running sub-13. I don't think it's a coincidence that one of his athletes was the first college kid to break 13/27. I don't think it's a coincidence that he coached Sam McDonnell to a 4:37. I don't think it's a coincidence that he had 7 guys run 8:52 or faster from 4 different families in 4 years.
And I think we're seeing now with AF and Herriman that if the kids think they need to run sub-9, or even sub-8:50, to be fast, they will rise to the occasion. Obviously not all of them, but WAY more than anyone thought before NP came along. I think there's a good chance we see a squad rivaling NP 2021/22 before the end of the decade.