Forty-six second plus 400 meter guys have maxed out, 800m under current format. Reminder, 800m w.r. 1939 on cinder with heavy leather shoes, 1:46.xx.
Do you want to see faster 800m races from current 800m athletes? Four turn stagger is needed. All out effort is more important than pacers. With four turn stagger, 800m, we would see guys racing 1:41 regularly in Olympic & World Championship semifinal as we see world records or near world in swimming at Olympics and W.C.
F.a.t. sub-21.00 200m men or men with f.a.t. sub-21 200m potential often make millions of dollars playing other sports. There are a limited amount of f.a.t sub-45.00 men every year anyway and how many f.a.t. sub-45 400m men are interested in 800m? In comparison, there are so many skinning guys who do not possess the sprinting speed and coordination to be an elite ball player. Many of these guys gravitate to T&F 1500m. Sub-1:40 800m would be a sight to see under current format.
Hopefully the 800 format never changes. It's the most exciting race exactly because it's the fastest race not run in lanes. To put it in lanes would completely neuter the excitement that it has now.
T&F is still about racing, not a continuous stream of perpetual WRs. Some events have monumental level standing WRs...and when/if they go down, it's epic excitement. The continuous stream of WRs in distance events (5/10/HM/Marathon) is not nearly as exciting as it's almost expected to happen pretty regularly. The 800 (and 1500) are not such events and that is a good thing.
Absolutely!
The 800 format must never change! It's a gladiator event and must remain so! The 400 is meant to be the long sprint, run in lanes without contact. The 800 is the one event where long spriters and distance runners get to face off against each other.
It's pretty wild that Seb Coe ran 1:41.7 back in 1981, and 43 years later with all the improvements in shoe tech, training, and track surfaces, we still haven't found a way to run 1.8 seconds faster...
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
Sumner can go 1:41.xx once he gets a real coach, Arop probably will soon. Otherwise, nobody else looks like they'll get close.
And which time barrier do you see the most impressive one:
1. 1:39.99 @800m
2. 3:24.99 @1500m
In the nicest way possible the 800m has been in such a sorry sorry state post Brazier.
We are getting to a place that we are lowering expectations as far as times go. It went from multiple people in a final running 1:43.0 or faster and 1-2 1:41.x performances consistently, to medaling with 1:44s and potentially winning gold with a 1:43.x. The track world is gonna be excited the next time someone breaks 1:43 and that tells me Rudishas record is untouchable by this generation of track and field.
Some people think Arop has the capability. His body type is very close to Rudisha though Arop looks stockier in recent photos (compared to Rudisha in his prime.) Arop is listed at 6'4" 172 lbs, Rudisha 6'3" 168 lbs. The word is Arop trains consistently and is level headed, two traits which IMO are crucial. At 25 years old Arop is IMO still not quite at his prime physically. My thoughts are most athletes can stay at their physical peaks into their 30s but don't because of burnout.
Some people think Arop has the capability. His body type is very close to Rudisha though Arop looks stockier in recent photos (compared to Rudisha in his prime.) Arop is listed at 6'4" 172 lbs, Rudisha 6'3" 168 lbs. The word is Arop trains consistently and is level headed, two traits which IMO are crucial. At 25 years old Arop is IMO still not quite at his prime physically. My thoughts are most athletes can stay at their physical peaks into their 30s but don't because of burnout.
Arop is no where near sub-1:40 800m, 25 years old, 46.xx 400m & 1:42.8x 800m do not indicate sub-1:40 800m is in his future. Let's see Arop actually get close to 1:40.00 and/or let's see Arop race both sub-74, 600m & sub-2:14 1000m.
Some people think Arop has the capability. His body type is very close to Rudisha though Arop looks stockier in recent photos (compared to Rudisha in his prime.) Arop is listed at 6'4" 172 lbs, Rudisha 6'3" 168 lbs. The word is Arop trains consistently and is level headed, two traits which IMO are crucial. At 25 years old Arop is IMO still not quite at his prime physically. My thoughts are most athletes can stay at their physical peaks into their 30s but don't because of burnout.
Arop is no where near sub-1:40 800m, 25 years old, 46.xx 400m & 1:42.8x 800m do not indicate sub-1:40 800m is in his future. Let's see Arop actually get close to 1:40.00 and/or let's see Arop race both sub-74, 600m & sub-2:14 1000m.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
Arop is no where near sub-1:40 800m, 25 years old, 46.xx 400m & 1:42.8x 800m do not indicate sub-1:40 800m is in his future. Let's see Arop actually get close to 1:40.00 and/or let's see Arop race both sub-74, 600m & sub-2:14 1000m.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
Arop is a 46.10 guy. 3.90 seconds is a decent enough cushion.
Arop is no where near sub-1:40 800m, 25 years old, 46.xx 400m & 1:42.8x 800m do not indicate sub-1:40 800m is in his future. Let's see Arop actually get close to 1:40.00 and/or let's see Arop race both sub-74, 600m & sub-2:14 1000m.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
We have watched 75 summers of 46-something 400m guys race 800m. Not one of the 46-something 400m guys have broken 1:41.7. I did not say sub-74 600m & sub-2:14 1000m indicates a man will break 1:40. I am saying Arop has to show us something! Either a low 1:40.xx 800m or fast 600m & 1000m.
I would bet heavily against anyone breaking 1:42 this year, let alone 1:40.
The 800's such a uniquely demanding aerobic/anerobic event that it'll take a true supertalent to break the WR, and we'll all know who that guy is by 21 or 22 at the latest. Wanyonyi's the only 1:42 guy young enough to have a chance, so unless he takes a giant leap this year to become a 1:41 high guy no current pro has a shot at 1:40.
Arop is no where near sub-1:40 800m, 25 years old, 46.xx 400m & 1:42.8x 800m do not indicate sub-1:40 800m is in his future. Let's see Arop actually get close to 1:40.00 and/or let's see Arop race both sub-74, 600m & sub-2:14 1000m.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
Virtually no chance Arop ever breaks the WR, let alone sub-1:40.
You’re thinking a) 2-3 seconds isn’t a lot, and b) an 800 runner doesn’t hit their physical prime until age 27–neither of these are true.
2 seconds is a chasm at the super elite level in the 800. At 1:42.85, Arop is tied for 30th all time performer, and 83rd all time performance. His progression in recent years has been:
2019 - 1:44.25
2020 - 1:44.14
2021 - 1:43.26
2022 - 1:43.38
2023 - 1:42.85
In 4 years he’s progressed 1.40 seconds and now he’s hit the 1:42s, which is almost a catch-all, with 41 men breaking 1:43 and only 5 breaking 1:42.
And the 800 is basically the young man’s event in track and field. There have been guys who have consistent careers through their early thirties, but a majority run their best times in their early/mid twenties. Marco Arop is 25 years & six months. The ages of the 5 sub-1:42 men when they ran their PRs:
Rudisha - 23 years & 8 months
Kipketer - 24 years & 8 months
Coe - 24 years & 8 months
Amos - 18 years & 5 months
Cruz - 21 years & 5 months
Furthermore, nobody has ever broken 1:42 at older than 25 years & 4 months—nobody has done it at Arop’s age. Sub-1:40? Honestly it’s just a ridiculous proposition.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
We have watched 75 summers of 46-something 400m guys race 800m. Not one of the 46-something 400m guys have broken 1:41.7. I did not say sub-74 600m & sub-2:14 1000m indicates a man will break 1:40. I am saying Arop has to show us something! Either a low 1:40.xx 800m or fast 600m & 1000m.
And we now know vastly more about optimal training and nutrition than we did over those years with more progress occurring constantly. IMO 25-32 is not too old. I am saying Arop may end up showing us something, not that he will. IMO he is a legitimate contender who appears to not suffer from big head syndrome. What I am saying is Arop has all the attributes you would want. Regarding 400 PBs, one could argue that any runner venturing into 45.50 or under is now training muscle fibers for the 400/200 and will no longer be capable of running a fast 800, so perhaps 1:40.0 is impossible unless some super rocket fuel is developed in which case the performance won't be clean. Regardless, it will take an extremely rare individual to have the required combination of physical and metabolic traits.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
Virtually no chance Arop ever breaks the WR, let alone sub-1:40.
You’re thinking a) 2-3 seconds isn’t a lot, and b) an 800 runner doesn’t hit their physical prime until age 27–neither of these are true.
2 seconds is a chasm at the super elite level in the 800. At 1:42.85, Arop is tied for 30th all time performer, and 83rd all time performance. His progression in recent years has been:
2019 - 1:44.25
2020 - 1:44.14
2021 - 1:43.26
2022 - 1:43.38
2023 - 1:42.85
In 4 years he’s progressed 1.40 seconds and now he’s hit the 1:42s, which is almost a catch-all, with 41 men breaking 1:43 and only 5 breaking 1:42.
And the 800 is basically the young man’s event in track and field. There have been guys who have consistent careers through their early thirties, but a majority run their best times in their early/mid twenties. Marco Arop is 25 years & six months. The ages of the 5 sub-1:42 men when they ran their PRs:
Rudisha - 23 years & 8 months
Kipketer - 24 years & 8 months
Coe - 24 years & 8 months
Amos - 18 years & 5 months
Cruz - 21 years & 5 months
Furthermore, nobody has ever broken 1:42 at older than 25 years & 4 months—nobody has done it at Arop’s age. Sub-1:40? Honestly it’s just a ridiculous proposition.
At one time many people thought the world was flat. You are placing yourself into the typical LRC "pseudo analytical number cruncher" mindset. The "Natural Linear Progression" bantered on these boards is also part of that.
Time will tell, but I think your cookie-cutter prediction algorithm is incorrect. IMO a 46.xx guy with great stamina has enough speed reserve to crack 1:40.0, the guy with the right training/nutrition/mentality just hasn't appeared. Everything has to go smoothy with no major injuries nor setbacks.
Virtually no chance Arop ever breaks the WR, let alone sub-1:40.
You’re thinking a) 2-3 seconds isn’t a lot, and b) an 800 runner doesn’t hit their physical prime until age 27–neither of these are true.
2 seconds is a chasm at the super elite level in the 800. At 1:42.85, Arop is tied for 30th all time performer, and 83rd all time performance. His progression in recent years has been:
2019 - 1:44.25
2020 - 1:44.14
2021 - 1:43.26
2022 - 1:43.38
2023 - 1:42.85
In 4 years he’s progressed 1.40 seconds and now he’s hit the 1:42s, which is almost a catch-all, with 41 men breaking 1:43 and only 5 breaking 1:42.
And the 800 is basically the young man’s event in track and field. There have been guys who have consistent careers through their early thirties, but a majority run their best times in their early/mid twenties. Marco Arop is 25 years & six months. The ages of the 5 sub-1:42 men when they ran their PRs:
Rudisha - 23 years & 8 months
Kipketer - 24 years & 8 months
Coe - 24 years & 8 months
Amos - 18 years & 5 months
Cruz - 21 years & 5 months
Furthermore, nobody has ever broken 1:42 at older than 25 years & 4 months—nobody has done it at Arop’s age. Sub-1:40? Honestly it’s just a ridiculous proposition.
I bet Roger Bannister heard a lot of that kind of talk back in his day.
I think 1:39.99 is even better than 3:24.99. More people are closer percentage-wise both now and historically to 3:24.99. In fact Jakob was closer in absolute terms than any 800 runner last year (2.15 vs. 2.81).
If OP thinks 1:39.99 might be run this year I want some of what he’s smoking.
Virtually no chance Arop ever breaks the WR, let alone sub-1:40.
You’re thinking a) 2-3 seconds isn’t a lot, and b) an 800 runner doesn’t hit their physical prime until age 27–neither of these are true.
2 seconds is a chasm at the super elite level in the 800. At 1:42.85, Arop is tied for 30th all time performer, and 83rd all time performance. His progression in recent years has been:
2019 - 1:44.25
2020 - 1:44.14
2021 - 1:43.26
2022 - 1:43.38
2023 - 1:42.85
In 4 years he’s progressed 1.40 seconds and now he’s hit the 1:42s, which is almost a catch-all, with 41 men breaking 1:43 and only 5 breaking 1:42.
And the 800 is basically the young man’s event in track and field. There have been guys who have consistent careers through their early thirties, but a majority run their best times in their early/mid twenties. Marco Arop is 25 years & six months. The ages of the 5 sub-1:42 men when they ran their PRs:
Rudisha - 23 years & 8 months
Kipketer - 24 years & 8 months
Coe - 24 years & 8 months
Amos - 18 years & 5 months
Cruz - 21 years & 5 months
Furthermore, nobody has ever broken 1:42 at older than 25 years & 4 months—nobody has done it at Arop’s age. Sub-1:40? Honestly it’s just a ridiculous proposition.
At one time many people thought the world was flat. You are placing yourself into the typical LRC "pseudo analytical number cruncher" mindset. The "Natural Linear Progression" bantered on these boards is also part of that.
You can choose to ignore the statistical evidence which suggests Arop will not approach the WR if you like, you have the right, and it is by nature circumstantial. And I likewise will choose to believe that monkeys will fly out of my ass tomorrow. After all, it could happen.