And which time barrier do you see the most impressive one:
1. 1:39.99 @800m
2. 3:24.99 @1500m
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
And which time barrier do you see the most impressive one:
1. 1:39.99 @800m
2. 3:24.99 @1500m
So 0.92 seconds off a 800m race or 1.01s off a 1500m race? Definitely the 800
I think Rudisha could have run 1:40.3 had he been paced through 500, without 2 rounds in his legs, but I think El Guerrouj could have run 3:25.5 as well
I think 1:39.99 is even better than 3:24.99. More people are closer percentage-wise both now and historically to 3:24.99. In fact Jakob was closer in absolute terms than any 800 runner last year (2.15 vs. 2.81).
If OP thinks 1:39.99 might be run this year I want some of what he’s smoking.
it is most likely the first under 1:40 hasn't been born yet.
sub 3:24.99 might exist. I doubt anybody current can do it, but I'd rate Laros the top prospect if one does exist. He might never break 3:28, but there is enough unknown about his ceiling, that you can you say world record is possible, when you look at his early age endurance + speed combination. Everybody else who is good is enough of a known quantity that I can confidently say sub 3:25 is not possible for them.
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
I agree that the 1.40 @800m will take a while to break(don´t see anyone who is capable for that yet).
At the 1500m however I do think we will se it happen in a pretty narrow future. Who will it be? Ingebrigtsen, Kerr, Nuguse, Hoare, Kessler, Wightman?
3:24.99 is, in my opinion, a harder time to break compare to 1:39.99, but there are (today) more runners closer breaking sub 3.25.
So 0.92 seconds off a 800m race or 1.01s off a 1500m race? Definitely the 800
I think Rudisha could have run 1:40.3 had he been paced through 500, without 2 rounds in his legs, but I think El Guerrouj could have run 3:25.5 as well
As great as Rudisha was 1:40.3 is still a fantasy time. He ran:
1:40.91
1:41.01
1:41.09
1:41.33
1:41.51
1:41.54
1:41.74
Finding six-tenths to take off his record just wasn’t gonna happen.
such a brutal crowd here with all the vote downs for op. I go with the no question is stupid theory, even if it's a troll. If it leads to thoughtful responses, it's worth a thread. voted up.
This year? No. But in a couple of years? Not impossible for neither Hoare or Wightman. Why would it if you ask me? I do however see it more likely it will be Ingebrigtsen or Kerr.
Seeing that Rudisha and Kipketer own a combined 17 of the top 25 performances in the 800 and the only others to break 1:42 ever also include Coe, Cruz and Amos all of whom are long retired (or banned in the case of Amos) I don't see how any current 800 runners are getting sub 1:40 anytime soon.
...And it's an event that doesn't gain benefit of super shoes. Emanuel Korir was on track to go sub 1:42 but like Brazier, is now plagued by injury and is 28 y.o now. Arop is not fast enough (46.1 400) nor strong enough and he is the current best at the event but you need to realize Rudisha could regularly drop a sub 1:42 performance each season and still couldn't go sub 1:40.
Unless a completely unknown super stud suddenly shows up I doubt if Rudisha's record falls soon let alone a sub 1:40! ...A sub sub 3:25 1500 might be more likely since the event is in the midst of some incredibly deep and very fast runners currently. And unlike the 8, the 15 does see the benefit of super shoes.
I think 1:39.99 is even better than 3:24.99. More people are closer percentage-wise both now and historically to 3:24.99. In fact Jakob was closer in absolute terms than any 800 runner last year (2.15 vs. 2.81).
If OP thinks 1:39.99 might be run this year I want some of what he’s smoking.
I did not say 1:39.00 might be run this year (it was an open question IF someone could do this 2024), but who will be the first person breaking the barrier? Geez, how negative some people are these days...
This year? No. But in a couple of years? Not impossible for neither Hoare or Wightman. Why would it if you ask me? I do however see it more likely it will be Ingebrigtsen or Kerr.
Define “impossible.” For all practical purposes, yeah, it will be impossible for them to run 3:25.
You think Jake Wightman is going to run 3:25 in his early 30s? It’s honestly laughable. There’s a pretty high chance he will never improve his 3:29.23 PR.
I think 1:39.99 is even better than 3:24.99. More people are closer percentage-wise both now and historically to 3:24.99. In fact Jakob was closer in absolute terms than any 800 runner last year (2.15 vs. 2.81).
If OP thinks 1:39.99 might be run this year I want some of what he’s smoking.
I did not say 1:39.00 might be run this year (it was an open question IF someone could do this 2024), but who will be the first person breaking the barrier? Geez, how negative some people are these days...
Oh, okay. If you want to know who will be the first, it will be Hazmat Deng, the son of Sudanese refugees representing Germany, in 2048. His combination of 44-low 400 speed and 3:28 endurance will enable him to dominate the 800.
This year? No. But in a couple of years? Not impossible for neither Hoare or Wightman. Why would it if you ask me? I do however see it more likely it will be Ingebrigtsen or Kerr.
Define “impossible.” For all practical purposes, yeah, it will be impossible for them to run 3:25.
You think Jake Wightman is going to run 3:25 in his early 30s? It’s honestly laughable. There’s a pretty high chance he will never improve his 3:29.23 PR.
Short answer: Today? Most likely impossible. In the future? Possible, but yes! The odds are vey low.
Seeing that Rudisha and Kipketer own a combined 17 of the top 25 performances in the 800 and the only others to break 1:42 ever also include Coe, Cruz and Amos all of whom are long retired (or banned in the case of Amos) I don't see how any current 800 runners are getting sub 1:40 anytime soon.
...And it's an event that doesn't gain benefit of super shoes. Emanuel Korir was on track to go sub 1:42 but like Brazier, is now plagued by injury and is 28 y.o now. Arop is not fast enough (46.1 400) nor strong enough and he is the current best at the event but you need to realize Rudisha could regularly drop a sub 1:42 performance each season and still couldn't go sub 1:40.
Unless a completely unknown super stud suddenly shows up I doubt if Rudisha's record falls soon let alone a sub 1:40! ...A sub sub 3:25 1500 might be more likely since the event is in the midst of some incredibly deep and very fast runners currently. And unlike the 8, the 15 does see the benefit of super shoes.
it is yet to be seen if super shoes benefit 1500 runners at the top of the food chain. it definitely creates more sub 4s and 3:35 type runners, but we really aren't seeing historically fast times at the top, compared to the previous 25 years.
Forty-six second plus 400 meter guys have maxed out, 800m under current format. Reminder, 800m w.r. 1939 on cinder with heavy leather shoes, 1:46.xx.
Do you want to see faster 800m races from current 800m athletes? Four turn stagger is needed. All out effort is more important than pacers. With four turn stagger, 800m, we would see guys racing 1:41 regularly in Olympic & World Championship semifinal as we see world records or near world in swimming at Olympics and W.C.
F.a.t. sub-21.00 200m men or men with f.a.t. sub-21 200m potential often make millions of dollars playing other sports. There are a limited amount of f.a.t sub-45.00 men every year anyway and how many f.a.t. sub-45 400m men are interested in 800m? In comparison, there are so many skinning guys who do not possess the sprinting speed and coordination to be an elite ball player. Many of these guys gravitate to T&F 1500m. Sub-1:40 800m would be a sight to see under current format.
Forty-six second plus 400 meter guys have maxed out, 800m under current format. Reminder, 800m w.r. 1939 on cinder with heavy leather shoes, 1:46.xx.
Do you want to see faster 800m races from current 800m athletes? Four turn stagger is needed. All out effort is more important than pacers. With four turn stagger, 800m, we would see guys racing 1:41 regularly in Olympic & World Championship semifinal as we see world records or near world in swimming at Olympics and W.C.
F.a.t. sub-21.00 200m men or men with f.a.t. sub-21 200m potential often make millions of dollars playing other sports. There are a limited amount of f.a.t sub-45.00 men every year anyway and how many f.a.t. sub-45 400m men are interested in 800m? In comparison, there are so many skinning guys who do not possess the sprinting speed and coordination to be an elite ball player. Many of these guys gravitate to T&F 1500m. Sub-1:40 800m would be a sight to see under current format.
Hopefully the 800 format never changes. It's the most exciting race exactly because it's the fastest race not run in lanes. To put it in lanes would completely neuter the excitement that it has now.
T&F is still about racing, not a continuous stream of perpetual WRs. Some events have monumental level standing WRs...and when/if they go down, it's epic excitement. The continuous stream of WRs in distance events (5/10/HM/Marathon) is not nearly as exciting as it's almost expected to happen pretty regularly. The 800 (and 1500) are not such events and that is a good thing.
I think 1:39.99 is even better than 3:24.99. More people are closer percentage-wise both now and historically to 3:24.99. In fact Jakob was closer in absolute terms than any 800 runner last year (2.15 vs. 2.81).
If OP thinks 1:39.99 might be run this year I want some of what he’s smoking.
Forty-six second plus 400 meter guys have maxed out, 800m under current format. Reminder, 800m w.r. 1939 on cinder with heavy leather shoes, 1:46.xx.
Do you want to see faster 800m races from current 800m athletes? Four turn stagger is needed. All out effort is more important than pacers. With four turn stagger, 800m, we would see guys racing 1:41 regularly in Olympic & World Championship semifinal as we see world records or near world in swimming at Olympics and W.C.
F.a.t. sub-21.00 200m men or men with f.a.t. sub-21 200m potential often make millions of dollars playing other sports. There are a limited amount of f.a.t sub-45.00 men every year anyway and how many f.a.t. sub-45 400m men are interested in 800m? In comparison, there are so many skinning guys who do not possess the sprinting speed and coordination to be an elite ball player. Many of these guys gravitate to T&F 1500m. Sub-1:40 800m would be a sight to see under current format.
Hopefully the 800 format never changes. It's the most exciting race exactly because it's the fastest race not run in lanes. To put it in lanes would completely neuter the excitement that it has now.
T&F is still about racing, not a continuous stream of perpetual WRs. Some events have monumental level standing WRs...and when/if they go down, it's epic excitement. The continuous stream of WRs in distance events (5/10/HM/Marathon) is not nearly as exciting as it's almost expected to happen pretty regularly. The 800 (and 1500) are not such events and that is a good thing.
You didn't specifically address my points in previous post.
Fifteen-hundred meters is the fastest race not raced in lanes. Eight-hundred meter athletes do race in lanes for 1/8 of race and they all are racing a tangent for lane 1 or 2 from 100m to 200m.
You may choose to advocate for status quo. By advocating for current system, 800m, T&F, f.a.t. sub-45 400m men and teenagers with f.a.t. sub-45 400m potential are not choosing to participate, 800m. By stating you want no format change, 800m, you are, by default stating you do not want to see sub-1:40 800m. If a teenage male looks in the mirror and sees a potential f.a.t. sub-45 400m athlete, under current format, why would a potential sub-45 400m athlete move up to 800m?