Can Simmons be defeated?

Simmons ran 8:34 last track season and is the top returner from NX. by a lot. I don’t think we have had this heavy a favorite since Nico Young, and maybe even back to Cheserek.

NICO and CHES raced from the front. I think it’s open only because Daniel will only take the lead with 1-1.5k remaining in the race which some kids might be able to cover.

If I read the NE entries correctly, Drew Griffith isn’t running NXR/NXN.

I feel like even in the Nico Young year their were still rumblings that like Strangio, Methner, or Sprout were going to give him problems. They would stick right to him and not let him get away.

That is because Methner ran 13:49 and broke Detweiler Park course record. The entire midwest regions was convinced that it was the same level as Nico's 13:39 at Woodbridge. Nico won over Methner at Nationals 14:52-15:06.

Sure, but there are still some rumblings about Fast Horse, etc. But I agree that Schoppe, Methner, Sprout had all broken historic records that year and had their fans as well. Pretty comparable. A bit heavier a favorite than Young, probably. Maybe Casey Clinger? If not him, back to Verzbicas and Ches.

back when FL and NXN were on more even footing individually it is harder to know. But now that NXN is almost always the superior individual race it’s a bit clearer.

Ben Jaster finished 13th at NXN (#2 on the team)

Nico Young was an absolute horse at NXN that year!!!!! Simmons is a stud but total different XC racing style. Simmons won’t lead until after 2k. Nico was all gas from the start.

I expect Simmons to break the course record at nxn if weather plays nice. Conditions at his regional were similar to a typical Glendoveer. He ran a perfect simulation race at NXR easing into the pace and blasting the last 600m with a hill and still ran 14:41?

The kid runs smart and knows his limits. In a race like NXN, there is no reason to be leading at 800m. I do expect others to try and go with him whenever he makes his move, but no one will be with him when he hits the base of the finishing hill.

Interesting to think about who has a shot to run with or beat Simmons this year.

TOP THREATS -- THE PA DUO: If I had to pick one guy to beat Simmons, it would be won of these two -- probably Griffiths if you made me choose.

Drew Griffiths (PA). Won his state meet by 21 seconds, is undefeated on the year. 14:21 at Milesplit, crushing some pretty solid national-level competitors including Nance (who himself was 13:58 @ Woodbridge, 2nd @ NXRSE). Ran 8:52 last year for 2 miles. Certainly seems better the longer he goes.

Ryan Pajak (PA). Undefeated on the year and has spent the fall crushing folks, but it's hard to know exactly how good he is as he hasn't faced a ton of national-level competition and he and Griffiths haven't raced. A second or two faster on the same PA state course as Griffiths. Ran 8:48 last year and was right on DiCola, who is now a very good NCAA runner.

THE CALIFORNIA TRIO: The postseason schedule can sometimes be rough on CA runners, but these three are all capable of winning on the right day, with Fast Horse just a touch off the PA guys for me.

Anthony Fast Horse (CA). Says he is going after Fernandez's record at state and already ran 14:32.5 at Clovis, crushing Noonan and Perez. He's probably CA's best shot. 4:08/8:51.

Evan Noonan (CA). Dominant at Woodbridge in 13:41, beating Fast Horse by 7 seconds. Lost convincingly at Clovis, however. 4:09/8:49.

Emmanuel Perez (CA). Crushed everyone at Mt. Sac, crushed CIF-SS, 3rd at Woodbridge but to two other guys on this list. His later-season performances have been better than the Woodbridge -- if he is dialing it up, great. If he peaked too early, womp. 8:53 last year.

Other True Contenders:

Byron Grevious (NH). Undefeated but with very little comp. Stanford commit. 12th at NXN last year makes him the 2nd highest returner. A bit under the radar -- ran 8:51i and 14:04 on the track last year.

Noah Valyo (NC). Has only lost once this year (3rd at adidas) and it was early. Probably underrated going into NXRSE, where he won in 14:40.

Cameron Todd (IN). He's won basically every big meet he's run in, including NXR MW, which makes me think he wasn't going all out in his loss at regionals. 8:55.

Nathan Neil (MT). Undefeated, won NXR Northwest in dominant fashion, and ran 8:50 last year.

Fringe Contenders:

Joe Barrett (NJ). Undefeated on the year, won @ Manhattan. Don't know much else about him.

Ty Steorts. Lost in August, but has been pretty dominant since then.

Robert Mechura(MN). Won NXR Heartland in 14:32 -- since getting 3rd at Griak, he has been great. Smart racer. 4:16/8:59.

Clay Shively (KS). Not sure what to make of his season. He got the CR at Roy Griak and has a 4:01 mile from last season, but he's lost a bunch. He could be a factor with his speed but it's hard to know if he's saving some juice or if he's really just not as good as some of these guys. 4:01/8:50.

Manny Putz (WI). Hadn't lost since Griak before getting nipped by .1 at NXR by Mechura and has improved the whole season through. Only ran 4:19/9:17 last year.

Dylon Nalley (IL). Hasn't lost all season and ran 14:00 at Detweiler, so he's in the mix.

Based on speed ratings, Fast Horse's run at Clovis is the best this year. I daresay Simmons hasn't really be challenged in a way that would push him to the top of this list, though.

1 Anthony Fast Horse 12 Ventura (SS) Clovis Invitational CA 10/7/2023 1 14:32.5 198.17
2 Drew Griffith 12 Butler Marty Uher Vulcans PA 9/2/2023 1 15:25.6 197.47
3 Nathan Neil 12 Bozeman NXR Northwest MT 11/11/2023 1 14:49.6 197.47
4 Robert Mechura 11 Roseville Area NXR Heartland MN 11/12/2023 1 14:32.0 196.33
5 Manny Putz 11 Onalaska NXR Heartland WI 11/12/2023 2 14:32.1 196.30
7 Ethan Edgeworth 12 Cold Springs Alabama States AL 11/11/2023 1 14:34.3 195.57
8 Daniel Simmons 12 American Fork NXR Southwest UT 11/18/2023 1 14:41.1 195.29
9 Joe Barrett 11 Christian Brothers Academy New Jersey Groups NJ 11/4/2023 1 15:21.0 195.00
10 Sam Scott 12 Minneapolis Southwest NXR Heartland MN 11/12/2023 4 14:36.4 194.87

You can't hype up the pennsylvania guys like that. That avoided the more competitive field and Simmons so that they can win a nation championship at footlocker. If anything, they are automatically second tier for that move

What!?! Grevious has had at least TWO Letrsun threads about him. Not under the radar at all.

Otherwise, that was a really good write-up. Thanks!

I like Simmons as the favorite my point was that it wasn’t an open and shut case for him to win like Nico Young. Midwest region is my sleeper because they always finish well at NXN due to the course being challenging in nature like NXN. So if you do well at the Midwest most likely it carrie’s over to NXN. A significant mistake kids made last year was running the first 2k like it was the finish line. So many kids blew up that race. Simmons ran smart with a 4:40 first mile. It will be fun to watch.

Fair enough.

If Perez crushed CIF SS, then so too did Noonan. He tempo’d prelims in his bondis running 15:38 with his teammates and then ran the fastest time of the day at finals at 13:56. He probably could have ran 13:54/5ish if he didn’t run the long tangent around the last curve heading down to the finish line.

Perez ran 14:39 at prelims I believe? That might add extra wear and tear that neither Fasthorse nor Noonan have under their legs.

I agree that Fast Horse and Noonan are a step above Perez.

Looks like Drew Griffith opted for Footlocker instead.

Did both Pajak and Griffiths duck NXN?

I wouldn’t call it ducking. Choosing FL is reasonable. For most runners NXR and FL aren’t on the same weekend so they don’t have a choice to make. NXR for most comes first and you take the bird in the hand, but anyone with NXR this weekend has to choose.