What did sub 4 HS runners run as a freshman?

Grant Fisher 4:26

Hobbs Kessler 4:54 (went from 4:24 to 3:57 in one race btw)

Leo Daschbach 4:44 (4:10 soph)

Drew Hunter 4:33

Leo Young 4:22

Colin Sahlman 4:15

Rheinhardt Harrison 4:12

If history is any indication, your kid will probably run somewhere between 3:53-4:20 their senior year.

You can use this to look at the fastest 9th graders every year and click on each of them to see their progression

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He had run time trials of 4:13 and 4:08 (that could have been a 4:04, he was originally supposed to be pacing a few pros through 1200 and decided not to step off) during 2020

Connor Burns 4:44

Simeon Birnbaum 4:48 in 8th grade, 4:23 in 10th, so mid 4:30s w/ normal progression

Rocky Hansen 4:44

----- some 4:00 guys --------------

Brodey Hasty 4:19

Aaron Sahlman 4:25

Devan Kipyego 4:31

Zane Bergen 4:48a

Update I asked Google's new Bard AI and got this

Sure, here is a list of every US high school sub-4 miler with their best mile times from every season that they ran in high school:
AthleteYearFreshmanSophomoreJuniorSenior

Jim Ryun 1964 N/A 4:12.1 4:01.3 3:59.0

Marty Liquori 1964 N/A 4:14.8 4:03.4 3:59.4

Dave Wottle 1970 N/A 4:20.0 4:08.6 3:54.6

Steve Scott 1973 N/A 4:14.0 4:06.8 3:55.3

Alan Webb 2001 N/A 4:06.94 3:53.43 3:51.83

Grant Fisher 2017 N/A 4:08.00 4:03.98 3:58.35

Cole Hocker 2020 N/A 4:11.00 4:06.59 3:58.43

Nico Young 2021 N/A 4:07.00 4:03.94 3:58.42

Hobbs Kessler 2022 N/A 4:10.00 4:06.00 3:59.35

Rocky Hansen 2023 N/A 4:09.00 4:04.00 3:59.56

I hope this is helpful! Let me know if you have any other questions.

iirc, Webb was around 4:24 as a freshman and 4:06-4:07 as a sophomore. But he had some serious 800m speed.

Bullsh/it AI isn't worth crap.

On a toad interview that I just saw yesterday, Connor Burns was listed at 4:36 as a freshman (3:58 as a junior!). I think it said that he ran 4:10 as a soph.

dont have your frosh compare himself to the abnormally gifted. out of the 1 that broke 4, there are tons of frosh running very fast times for a frosh that never break 4 in high school or college.

Sophomore year seems to have a far better predictive value for who the top seniors will be. Pretty much everyone has their puberty boost by then.

those numbers are way way off On almost every guy if they are supposed to represent Frosh-soph-junior-senior years of HS? Or am I reading that wrong?

If I recall correctly, Ryun was:

Fr: n/a, So: 4:07, Jr: 3:59/3:39(1500), Sr: 3:55.

What did they run their freshman year in college?

So if he ran 4:19 as freshman, what should he run as a soph to be a good senior

stay focused and don't get distracted when the true talents come out it can be discouraging when you are faster than everyone else at a young age. yet they develop and you don't. the goal shouldn't be to try to break a certain time but to maximize your potential (whatever your ceiling might be). focus on training and being the best you can be and be satisfied with bare minimums. this is my best advice for a huge frosh talent talent

I think it all depends on when the kid grows and matures. Personally, I made massive jumps from Freshmen to Soph year but I added about 8 inches in height and 30lbs. Most of the top marks nationally for freshmen are usually from kids that matured early or ran a ton of club track. Rare to see them still succeeding later on

if the kid has already grown keep training and try to get that time down.

I watched two freshman run 4:19 and quicker this year and both looked like freshman running with all the juniors and seniors. wont be rare to see fast freshman succeed but thats just an opion. 2 to 3 percent would be good gain from freshman to soph.

tamagno looked like a freshman when he ran 4:09 and looked like a sophmore when he ran 4:06 mile his sophmore year and never broke 4 in high school or college

Your freshman does have a lot of talent and probably a lot of potential!

You have to take a look at where their physical maturity is at right now, what they did before they ran for you, and what they are currently doing to really gauge just how good they can be. If they look like a freshman, they can get huge gains just by hitting puberty, if they have only been training for a year, likewise, and if they are only doing like 20-25 miles a week there’s also huge room for growth.

This.

Ever heard the story about the kid that ran 4:19 as a frosh but then never progressed? Exactly.

I applaud your athlete's effort, but comparison really isn't going to do him any good. Better to keep the nose on the grindstone and see what happens. Hoping to "be like the greats" sets an unrealistic standard if its simply not in the cards for him. Who knows how many people ran that kind of time at that age but was never able to end up breaking 4...