Thank you for the very thoughtful response and for running those simulations.
I certainly don’t think it should be based solely on picking the winners, but I do think it should be weighted differently.
I think there should be more of a points discrepancy between, for example, picking 1. Sha’carri Richardson 2. Shericka Jackson and picking 1. Shericka Jackson 2. Sha’carri Richardson - as it stands, it’s a difference of 29 points versus 28 points, and you have to go all the way down to 17th in the standings to find the first person who picked Richardson to win (Laurence, who placed 2nd in one of your simulations).
Likewise 25 points out of a 29 point maximum seems too generous for someone who picked 1. Aregawi 2. Barega 3. El Bakkali, not even picking the winner in their top 3. In fact you have to go down to 7th place in the contest to find the first person who picked Girma as one of their 3, which is remarkable to me considering he just ran 7:23.8i…
It’s easy for me to say since I don’t have to do the coding for this, but I’d suggest something like this:
Captain:
20
12
8
6
5
4
2nd pick:
10
8
6
4
3
2
3rd pick “backup”:
6
5
4
3
2
1
Where your top-2 point earners score (giving more importance to the otherwise usually meaningless 3rd pick). So a perfect score is 28. If your captain places 3rd (8 points) and your 2nd pick places 1st (10 points) that’s 18. If your captain places 3rd (8), your 2nd pick bombs or suffers Emma Coburn’s fate but your 3rd pick wins (6), that’s 14.
In this scoring,
1. Richardson 2. Jackson = 28 points
1. Jackson 2. Richardson = 22 points
1. Jackson 2. Asher-Smith 3. Richardson = 18 points
1. Jackson 2. Jefferson 3. Richardson = 18 points
1. Jackson 2. Steiner 3. Jefferson = 12 points
In the case of someone picking 1. Aregawi 2. Barega 3. El Bakkali, they would now score 16 out of a possible 28, instead of 25 out of 29.
I think if you ran a simulation using that system, any discerning judge would say that the contest’s winners had better predictions than the top 3 from today’s contest (nothing against them - fair play to them).