Trackers are about the size of 2 match boxes stuck together and weigh very little - I can see no reason for not having it on the runner other than to prevent people locating him!
This thread was originally titled, "Incredible development in the $612,000 Transcon Goodge run, currently ongoing" but the new title is more descriptive. The description of the run is here.
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willvlc wrote:
Thank you for your candour bedsbucks. In the words of General Melchett you have "pumped me thoroughly in the debriefing room", and have remained very neutral, and I believe used to know him back in the day. Glad to have your support.
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On another note, this to all, could someone please let me know of their experience with Trackers? Balenger's excuse is that they're bulky and unwearable, but is that really the case? WG would often run dressed like a fisherman for one...
The two WR holders at Jogle wore them - about 90% of Joglers wear them. How bad can they really be? What is the gizmo that the great website Opentracker provides people with? Do they send a heavy brick through the post and say: "wear this!"
What precisely are we talking about here, that has so put Balenger off?
Thank you.
We're talking about a box less than 100g in weight (typically 35g or so). Easy to attach to your belt. Less than 50 bucks on average. Most are designed for cats or small dogs to comfortably wear them on their collar.
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rojo wrote:
Another giver of +1 wrote:
1) About 90% of posters believe something strange is happening. 90% of Goodge's Instagram followers believe it is legit.
2) Because the only smoking guns are heart rate data that looks impossible during the second half of running days and Goodge doesn't look like an ultra runner or have ultra pedigree.
3) That has been done by boots Will for a few days and there was nothing to note during that time besides accurate HR data and a slow pace.
4) For me the main red flag is satellite tracker stays in one of three vehicles, not on the runner as is customary.
It seems to be too late now to follow the team as Goodge could easily walk to NYC from here, only four or five days to go.
3) How much slower was he on the days he was tracked? That's the obvious tell.
Hi Rojo, he was quite a bit slower, despite clearly putting on a bit of a show [especially after he threw a rock at my car, there was a good 10-15k spell there]. But the two huge reasons for my mission were: would he show a clean HR for my visit and was he capable of these absolutely blinding afternoons that are his party trick?
For four of the days his HR was completely clean, and one day had a weird spell when accompanied for the only time on my trip by Balenger, but otherwise clean too. It then collapsed and fell off a cliff the moment I left.
For two of my days he simply walked - refused to run at all. There was a rain in the air and he wrote on Strava that "I'm a fair weather runner."
These were the positive splits when I was there were: 1:12, 50, 14 [walking], 40 & 40 [walking again.]
Compare these to days 41-46:-23, 21, 18, -29, 14, 2, 12.
So with me watching he lost 45 mins per day, but in the 7 day spell above, he is losing 2 mins a day.
He could only run a small amount in the afternoons when I was there, no chance of him negative or even-splitting whatsoever.
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Alright dorks, if you wanna put together something more interesting I have an idea. I'm past my prime scripting and statistics days, but surely someone here could bang this out in Python pretty quickly. A few ideas:
* You can get all the data you'd ever need from Strava's API. Not sure if this is what Will C did earlier or not. Here's an example from Will G's most recent day:* From there you have CSVs for all of his metrics
* I would obviously be interested in the correlation between HR and pace, there's a million different ways you could do that. Maybe you could try looking at bands of HR and their associated pace and variability. For example, just making this up:
** HR: 140–150BPM, Avg Pace: 14:00, Med Pace: 13:58, Variance: 1:00
** HR: 130–140BPM, ...
** ...
** ...
** HR: 100– 110BPM, Avg Pace: 14:00, Med Pace: 14:02, Variance: 3:00* I would at first do the above with the standard pace that Strava provides. I would then repeat with the GAP, because I suspect it's even more damning when you take into the account that it looks like he didn't slow his cheating on big uphills.
Just some thoughts, I'm nowhere near as good at these things as I used to be.
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rojo wrote:
Another giver of +1 wrote:
1) About 90% of posters believe something strange is happening. 90% of Goodge's Instagram followers believe it is legit.
2) Because the only smoking guns are heart rate data that looks impossible during the second half of running days and Goodge doesn't look like an ultra runner or have ultra pedigree.
3) That has been done by boots Will for a few days and there was nothing to note during that time besides accurate HR data and a slow pace.
4) For me the main red flag is satellite tracker stays in one of three vehicles, not on the runner as is customary.
It seems to be too late now to follow the team as Goodge could easily walk to NYC from here, only four or five days to go.
3) How much slower was he on the days he was tracked? That's the obvious tell.
Hi Rojo:
There are essentially 2 days left in his Trascon (he is in PA). They are now dropping world record daily numbers (70 miles per day). HERE IS WHAT YOU NEED TO DO, RIGHT NOW. Send someone out TODAY to track him with a video camera (24/7 recording) for the remainder of the run. That will give you footage and data (ie: do the paces drop when he is monitored).
A bunch of us will send money to a GoFund me to pay for the person you send.
AGAIN, HIS TRANSCON IS OVER IN 2 DAYS FROM NOW. YOU MUST SEND SOMEONE TODAY TO TRACK HIM FOR THE REMAINDER THE RUN. The tracker (on the support van, miles away from him) is on this website below, far down the page. You send your person to that tracker location and then start looking for Goodge somewhere nearby. You can knock on the van and ask his support crew where he is, but they may become hostile as we’ve seen thus far.I gave you everything you need above. Now makes us proud and protect our sport. If he isn’t cheating, he will keep the pace and your bountyhounter’s video will exonerate him.
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Omg, my eyes are burning. Like something from a Stanley Kubrik film, please don't do that to me.
And the 7 hours I took from him earlier are suddenly only 4! I forgot to fact in the time change. Back up to a 1 or 2% chance...
200 miles needed off 40 hours at 5mph. What a climax!!This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.100 -
willvlc wrote:
Just a small point - the historians have dug deep to get the precise Lees time, which is 53:12:15, so NOT 53.8 days as the USA crossers site relates, but 53.5.
So, around 7.25 hours less to play with. He'd basically need to bomb it straight through from right about now.
Can't believe we're even having to talk like this!
erm, he is on day 54?
Holy smee, day 50 - 127 miles!!!!!!!
Rojo - add this to my number of reasons.
127 miles in a day? that is just taking the pee pee. why has noone commented on this yet?
edit; ah, there is no day 49. But his tracker is a dead straight line. ie he took those days off. is there strava for those days?
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.41 -
I would contribute to the GoFundMe to pay for someone to monitor him. Let’s do this!!
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Yep, to be clear today is 53. He has until 2346EST tomorrow, Thursday, to take down the British record that has stood since 1972. I guess he'll miss it by circa a day, but could still go sub 55, for a 30/24 journey.
Tidy.
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rojo, in case you haven’t had enough summaries here are my thoughts. I’m not totally decided either way, but in unceasing order here’s what’s making me question the legitimacy.
1) When the thread started I was very much in the camp that the HR irregularity was just tech fail. Will C.’s (the OP) posts do sometimes come off as repetitive rambling, but he’s not wrong. There is a pattern where when most people would be tiring, his pace is picking up and his HR is dropping. This mostly disappeared when Will C. went out to observe, then resumed after he left. As nobody has come up with a definitive explanation, I can only say this is odd.
2) It’s suspect that someone who is very much a middle of the pack runner in organized races and doing a fraction of the training of most serious ultra runners (and openly brags about it) would be among the best ever at a transcon. His supporters tried making an illogical argument about Obiri winning Boston in her debut, despite her world class pedigree at shorter distance. If someone with a PR over 3:00 in all their previous marathons and claiming to only run 40 miles per week won Boston a la Rosie Ruiz, we would rightfully be skeptical.
3) But the biggest problem for me is refusing to follow established norms and put a tracker on the runner, even after being called out on it. Instead we get to watch the support vehicle making trips to WalMart a la Rob Young.
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BoogerJohnson wrote:
There are essentially 2 days left in his Trascon (he is in PA). They are now dropping world record daily numbers (70 miles per day). HERE IS WHAT YOU NEED TO DO, RIGHT NOW. Send someone out TODAY to track him with a video camera (24/7 recording) for the remainder of the run. That will give you footage and data (ie: do the paces drop when he is monitored).
Rojo. If you look at nothing else, read the above. Send someone out ASAP. I will chip in (I emailed you previously about changing the thread title). I'm sure others will as well. It might be too little too late, but if nothing else it will expose that the 70 mile day was a complete farce.
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FartKing69 wrote:
Alright dorks, if you wanna put together something more interesting I have an idea. I'm past my prime scripting and statistics days, but surely someone here could bang this out in Python pretty quickly. A few ideas:
* You can get all the data you'd ever need from Strava's API. Not sure if this is what Will C did earlier or not. Here's an example from Will G's most recent day:* From there you have CSVs for all of his metrics
* I would obviously be interested in the correlation between HR and pace, there's a million different ways you could do that. Maybe you could try looking at bands of HR and their associated pace and variability. For example, just making this up:
** HR: 140–150BPM, Avg Pace: 14:00, Med Pace: 13:58, Variance: 1:00
** HR: 130–140BPM, ...
** ...
** ...
** HR: 100– 110BPM, Avg Pace: 14:00, Med Pace: 14:02, Variance: 3:00* I would at first do the above with the standard pace that Strava provides. I would then repeat with the GAP, because I suspect it's even more damning when you take into the account that it looks like he didn't slow his cheating on big uphills.
Just some thoughts, I'm nowhere near as good at these things as I used to be.
Adding on more thoughts...
If someone does track him for the final 2 days, it totally plausible that he slogs it in on his own. However, that doesn't mean they didn't generate more evidence.
You could expand upon my previously outlined data analysis by comparing the days where he was observed by Will C and potentially this new observer to the days he was unobserved. There's another strong data point.
Anyone fresh out of college, looking for a data science portfolio builder project? I'd love to hear you tell me about this during an interview instead of some made up case study!
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Salesman wrote:
rojo, in case you haven’t had enough summaries here are my thoughts. I’m not totally decided either way, but in unceasing order here’s what’s making me question the legitimacy.
1) When the thread started I was very much in the camp that the HR irregularity was just tech fail. Will C.’s (the OP) posts do sometimes come off as repetitive rambling, but he’s not wrong. There is a pattern where when most people would be tiring, his pace is picking up and his HR is dropping. This mostly disappeared when Will C. went out to observe, then resumed after he left. As nobody has come up with a definitive explanation, I can only say this is odd.
2) It’s suspect that someone who is very much a middle of the pack runner in organized races and doing a fraction of the training of most serious ultra runners (and openly brags about it) would be among the best ever at a transcon. His supporters tried making an illogical argument about Obiri winning Boston in her debut, despite her world class pedigree at shorter distance. If someone with a PR over 3:00 in all their previous marathons and claiming to only run 40 miles per week won Boston a la Rosie Ruiz, we would rightfully be skeptical.
3) But the biggest problem for me is refusing to follow established norms and put a tracker on the runner, even after being called out on it. Instead we get to watch the support vehicle making trips to WalMart a la Rob Young.
My thanks for this, and yes sometimes one needs repetition to drum a point home that this can't possibly be all one big tech fail. The opposition I had 4-6 weeks ago was overwhelming at points but is now down to less than a handful.
For comparison with PK, three days out he did a 66k run at 168bpm, and a 52 at 173.
Simply savage stuff. Yes, he has outgunned WG by 6k [down to 2k the next day], but my goodness did he pay the blood price for it. That's what real running, and real suffering looks like.
We never get anything remotely like these numbers for WG [who has a notoriously high HR outside of this].120 -
pupil3142 wrote:
erm, he is on day 54?
Holy smee, day 50 - 127 miles!!!!!!!
Rojo - add this to my number of reasons.
127 miles in a day? that is just taking the pee pee. why has noone commented on this yet?
edit; ah, there is no day 49. But his tracker is a dead straight line. ie he took those days off. is there strava for those days?
Goodge is not wearing the tracker, so the daily mileages listed on the nucalm site are just the mileage from one of the vehicles that day.
Day 52 - Strava miles (70.02); Tracker miles (54.9)
Day 51 - Strava miles (60.18); Tracker miles (47.9)
Day 50 - Strava miles (50.01); Tracker miles (127.1)(Apparently days 49 and 50)
Day 49 - Strava miles (60.14); Tracker miles (No data)
Day 48 - Strava miles (54.02); Tracker miles (43.1 miles)
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the excuse that the tracker is too cumbersome for a Long run is garbage. Don't UTMB runners have trackers? The last I checked that is a pretty serious hardcore running event by the best in the world. They don't seem to have any problems.
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Kennedy wrote:
pupil3142 wrote:
erm, he is on day 54?
Holy smee, day 50 - 127 miles!!!!!!!
Rojo - add this to my number of reasons.
127 miles in a day? that is just taking the pee pee. why has noone commented on this yet?
edit; ah, there is no day 49. But his tracker is a dead straight line. ie he took those days off. is there strava for those days?
Goodge is not wearing the tracker, so the daily mileages listed on the nucalm site are just the mileage from one of the vehicles that day.
Day 52 - Strava miles (70.02); Tracker miles (54.9)
Day 51 - Strava miles (60.18); Tracker miles (47.9)
Day 50 - Strava miles (50.01); Tracker miles (127.1)(Apparently days 49 and 50)
Day 49 - Strava miles (60.14); Tracker miles (No data)
Day 48 - Strava miles (54.02); Tracker miles (43.1 miles)
bent as a five bob note.
so simple to say; we have heard doubts, so now will will be wearing the tracker......crickets.
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Kennedy wrote:
Goodge is not wearing the tracker, so the daily mileages listed on the nucalm site are just the mileage from one of the vehicles that day.
Day 52 - Strava miles (70.02); Tracker miles (54.9)
Day 51 - Strava miles (60.18); Tracker miles (47.9)
Day 50 - Strava miles (50.01); Tracker miles (127.1)(Apparently days 49 and 50)
Day 49 - Strava miles (60.14); Tracker miles (No data)
Day 48 - Strava miles (54.02); Tracker miles (43.1 miles)
It's also confusing that the tracker miles during these last 5 days have been less than the Strava miles. Tracker miles - 273.0, Strava miles - 294.37. It seems the van would travel at least the same distance as the runner, simply to end up together at the end of each day.
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Kennedy wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
Goodge is not wearing the tracker, so the daily mileages listed on the nucalm site are just the mileage from one of the vehicles that day.
Day 52 - Strava miles (70.02); Tracker miles (54.9)
Day 51 - Strava miles (60.18); Tracker miles (47.9)
Day 50 - Strava miles (50.01); Tracker miles (127.1)(Apparently days 49 and 50)
Day 49 - Strava miles (60.14); Tracker miles (No data)
Day 48 - Strava miles (54.02); Tracker miles (43.1 miles)
It's also confusing that the tracker miles during these last 5 days have been less than the Strava miles. Tracker miles - 273.0, Strava miles - 294.37. It seems the van would travel at least the same distance as the runner, simply to end up together at the end of each day.
Looks like the tracker was off from approximately Columbus to outside Pittsburgh. You can see the straight line. Could have just been they forgot to turn it on, but knowing what we know, it's hard to not entertain the idea that this is just another party trick for the crew.
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No, he's clearly outrunning the support vehicles now. He's THAT good!
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Mechanicsburg PA!
we need boots on the ground pronto! let’s get some eyes on this traveling clown show of GQ transcon runners!
check the tracker then look for the black truck with NUCALM all over it.
look for anything nefarious and take pics. This is how we caught Rob Young. The pressure caused him to give up the scam.
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