As a side note, why is Eagle's team so small? Isn't it 2000+ kids? Having 19 boys and 22 girls isn't great for a school that size. That makes it pretty hard to have any sort of depth.
I’m guessing more guys will join the team if they continue being successful?
It's pretty hard to reverse course on a team's numbers trending down unless there are drastic changes.
anotha one wrote: CDA looks to be one of the favorites to win NXN next year, unreal starting 5 they will have.
I think it's a quite extreme to say that they will be a favorite to win NXN.
It's very likely that they will make NXN, but considering that Rocky didn't even get into NXN last year, despite being a very very good team, I think that CDA would have to get an auto qualifying spot, which even that isn't a given with how good Crater is going to be, and the fact that other teams (Jesuit, Rocky, Kamiakin, Seattle Prep, Franklin, Boise) will all be trying to gun for that spot.
If CDA's 5th man can continue to improve, and the rest of them continue to be solid (and improve a bit), CDA is looking at an NXN berth. (as has been mentioned on here before)
CDA also has a freshman coming in (Wyatt Carr) who ran a 9:15 3k during indoor season.
This is the thing that really pushes CDA over Rocky in my mind. 4:18/9:13, 4:22/9:37, 4:34/9:40, ~9:50 8th grader, 4:46/10:19 and 4:49/10:15. They have a top 3 guy, one that was 4th, a top 7 or 8 guy, an incoming 8th grader that slots in in the top 15 and guys that will likely be around 25th. Rocky has the probable state champ, a top 5 runner, a freshman that could be around 15th, and then some guys that should be in the 20-25 range.
Regardless, top 5 next year will be a dog fight. Heemeyer, Ringert (9:13), Cervi-Skinner (9:13), Lachlan May, Bryson Blaser, Cody Lucas, Noe Kemper, Kaden Helder... There's 7 guys with legit shots to be somewhere between 2nd and 5th, and that's not counting guys like Will Ihmels (9:39), the other Cervi-Skinner (9:40), or Stadtlander (1:54/4:19/9:50- but almost certainly capable of more).
And I still missed a 2:02/4:31 guy for CDA that was 13th at the state meet and has a 9:39 PR. CDA really could put all 5 guys in the top 15. Unless Rocky's boys make huge jumps, hard to see how they can compete. CDA's top 5 3200 PRs- 9:13-9:37-9:39-9:40-~9:50. Rocky's- 9:03-9:32-9:56-10:04-10:10.
Yeah I think Crater and CDA will be the clear favorites at NXR. Crater returns Tostensen, Hellman, Kitchen, Garnica, and Doddington from NXN. But they do lose Gorze and right now, and they don’t have a 6th or a 7th at the same level as their 5th. It’s gonna be some pressure for them next year if they don’t develop a 6th or a 7th over the summer to back up their top 5.
Right now, based on track/xc results, it seems like there’s gonna be a lot of 5-deep teams next fall that are nationally ranked.
Yeah I think Crater and CDA will be the clear favorites at NXR. Crater returns Tostensen, Hellman, Kitchen, Garnica, and Doddington from NXN. But they do lose Gorze and right now, and they don’t have a 6th or a 7th at the same level as their 5th. It’s gonna be some pressure for them next year if they don’t develop a 6th or a 7th over the summer to back up their top 5.
Right now, based on track/xc results, it seems like there’s gonna be a lot of 5-deep teams next fall that are nationally ranked.
For all the talk about CDA not having a 5th-7th, they certainly appear to be at least as deep as anyone else in the region. Their 6 and 7 are about as good as Rocky's over 3200m (but they've raced a lot less, so a good chance they will end up faster) and they are much better at 3, 4, and 5. Crater is better 1-3, but CDA is a lot better at 4-7.
anotha one wrote: CDA looks to be one of the favorites to win NXN next year, unreal starting 5 they will have.
I think it's a quite extreme to say that they will be a favorite to win NXN.
It's very likely that they will make NXN, but considering that Rocky didn't even get into NXN last year, despite being a very very good team, I think that CDA would have to get an auto qualifying spot, which even that isn't a given with how good Crater is going to be, and the fact that other teams (Jesuit, Rocky, Kamiakin, Seattle Prep, Franklin, Boise) will all be trying to gun for that spot.
Going from 7th at NXR to NXN champs in one year seems like an awfully big jump. But making the podium doesn’t seem unrealistic for CDA. Herriman went from 9th at state in 2021 to 3rd at NXN in 2022.
CDA also has a freshman coming in (Wyatt Carr) who ran a 9:15 3k during indoor season.
This is the thing that really pushes CDA over Rocky in my mind. 4:18/9:13, 4:22/9:37, 4:34/9:40, ~9:50 8th grader, 4:46/10:19 and 4:49/10:15. They have a top 3 guy, one that was 4th, a top 7 or 8 guy, an incoming 8th grader that slots in in the top 15 and guys that will likely be around 25th. Rocky has the probable state champ, a top 5 runner, a freshman that could be around 15th, and then some guys that should be in the 20-25 range.
Regardless, top 5 next year will be a dog fight. Heemeyer, Ringert (9:13), Cervi-Skinner (9:13), Lachlan May, Bryson Blaser, Cody Lucas, Noe Kemper, Kaden Helder... There's 7 guys with legit shots to be somewhere between 2nd and 5th, and that's not counting guys like Will Ihmels (9:39), the other Cervi-Skinner (9:40), or Stadtlander (1:54/4:19/9:50- but almost certainly capable of more).
If you are talking individual top 5 at NXR, look for performances like a sub 9 3200, sub 15:10 at Eagle Island, or a speed rating over 190. There just aren’t many guys who have already shown that talent or will get there.
Tostenson, Recupero, Heemeyer, Athay, Neil.
Are there others who might get there? Sure, but I’d guess 3-4 of the NXR qualifiers are among those 5. 50/50 it’s those 5 if they are all healthy.
Tennessee will be a very solid state. Lots of great teams there. McCallie returns: 4:13/9:20 (10), 4:17/9:51 (11), 4:24 (11), 4:34/10:00 (11), 4:37/10:08 (9), 1:57/15:53 (10), 2:01/15:49 (11) I think this team will be the favorite in the state and I’m sure they have motivation after not making NXN.
Farragut returns 4:20, 4:25, and 4:28 juniors (all of them were 2-4 at NXN) and a 4:31 sophomore, who sometimes spent time on their varsity. They will need to find a 5th. They have a 4:44 current junior, but not sure if he does CC. They also have another sophomore and 2 freshmen who went under 4:50. Losing 4 guys will be tough but they should not be counted out since they still bring their 2-4 back, and some young guys that can step up.
Brentwood returns: 9:31i 2-mile (10), 9:25 2-mile (11), 9:34 2-mile (9), 4:40 mile /10:12i 2-mile (10), 4:29 mile / 10:18i 3200 (10), 10:13 3200 (11), 4:49 1600 / 10:25 3200 (10) This team is looking to be very young, and has a good set-up for 2024.
Brentwood Academy returns: 4:15 indoor mile / 8:56 (11) 4:14 (2022) / 9:21 2-mile indoor (11) 9:56 (10) 10:18 (9) 10:18 (10) 5:02 (10) 5:03 (11) They have a very elite top 2, and they can do something special if they put a great top 5 together.
Knoxville Catholic will have c/o 2025 Keegan Smith (9:12), c/o 2026 Molchan (9:34i), c/o 2025 Ortega (9:54i), and c/o 2025 Vela (10:23) back. They will need to close the 4-5 gap. c/o 2026 Woldemichael (10:53/4:58) could possibly do it. The good news is they are looking to have no seniors on the team next year, so expect them to improve in 2024.
Beech returns: 9:41 (11) 9:44 (10) 9:59 (10) 10:13 (11) 16:05 (in 2020 xc) / 9:55 (in 2021 track) (11) 10:39 (11) Their top 5 is looking to be very solid.
This is the thing that really pushes CDA over Rocky in my mind. 4:18/9:13, 4:22/9:37, 4:34/9:40, ~9:50 8th grader, 4:46/10:19 and 4:49/10:15. They have a top 3 guy, one that was 4th, a top 7 or 8 guy, an incoming 8th grader that slots in in the top 15 and guys that will likely be around 25th. Rocky has the probable state champ, a top 5 runner, a freshman that could be around 15th, and then some guys that should be in the 20-25 range.
Regardless, top 5 next year will be a dog fight. Heemeyer, Ringert (9:13), Cervi-Skinner (9:13), Lachlan May, Bryson Blaser, Cody Lucas, Noe Kemper, Kaden Helder... There's 7 guys with legit shots to be somewhere between 2nd and 5th, and that's not counting guys like Will Ihmels (9:39), the other Cervi-Skinner (9:40), or Stadtlander (1:54/4:19/9:50- but almost certainly capable of more).
If you are talking individual top 5 at NXR, look for performances like a sub 9 3200, sub 15:10 at Eagle Island, or a speed rating over 190. There just aren’t many guys who have already shown that talent or will get there.
Tostenson, Recupero, Heemeyer, Athay, Neil.
Are there others who might get there? Sure, but I’d guess 3-4 of the NXR qualifiers are among those 5. 50/50 it’s those 5 if they are all healthy.
Yeah I think Crater and CDA will be the clear favorites at NXR. Crater returns Tostensen, Hellman, Kitchen, Garnica, and Doddington from NXN. But they do lose Gorze and right now, and they don’t have a 6th or a 7th at the same level as their 5th. It’s gonna be some pressure for them next year if they don’t develop a 6th or a 7th over the summer to back up their top 5.
Right now, based on track/xc results, it seems like there’s gonna be a lot of 5-deep teams next fall that are nationally ranked.
For all the talk about CDA not having a 5th-7th, they certainly appear to be at least as deep as anyone else in the region. Their 6 and 7 are about as good as Rocky's over 3200m (but they've raced a lot less, so a good chance they will end up faster) and they are much better at 3, 4, and 5. Crater is better 1-3, but CDA is a lot better at 4-7.
anotha one wrote: CDA looks to be one of the favorites to win NXN next year, unreal starting 5 they will have.
I think it's a quite extreme to say that they will be a favorite to win NXN.
It's very likely that they will make NXN, but considering that Rocky didn't even get into NXN last year, despite being a very very good team, I think that CDA would have to get an auto qualifying spot, which even that isn't a given with how good Crater is going to be, and the fact that other teams (Jesuit, Rocky, Kamiakin, Seattle Prep, Franklin, Boise) will all be trying to gun for that spot.
At first I was a little surprised you put Franklin in there since they are losing 5 varsity seniors and returns 2 scorers, but wow. They really had some people step up during track.
So they return these 3000 times: Nelson - 11 - 8:54 Courcelle - 10 - 8:55 McQuillen - 10 - 8:55 McEwen - 10 - 8:59 Horner - 11 - 9:01 Irvine - 9 - 9:58 They also return Haywood-O'Ne (junior) who ran a 16:27 at XC districts. Out of the guys in this group, Nelson and McEwen were the only ones who were in the top 7 last XC season
I think it's a quite extreme to say that they will be a favorite to win NXN.
It's very likely that they will make NXN, but considering that Rocky didn't even get into NXN last year, despite being a very very good team, I think that CDA would have to get an auto qualifying spot, which even that isn't a given with how good Crater is going to be, and the fact that other teams (Jesuit, Rocky, Kamiakin, Seattle Prep, Franklin, Boise) will all be trying to gun for that spot.
At first I was a little surprised you put Franklin in there since they are losing 5 varsity seniors and returns 2 scorers, but wow. They really had some people step up during track.
So they return these 3000 times: Nelson - 11 - 8:54 Courcelle - 10 - 8:55 McQuillen - 10 - 8:55 McEwen - 10 - 8:59 Horner - 11 - 9:01 Irvine - 9 - 9:58 They also return Haywood-O'Ne (junior) who ran a 16:27 at XC districts. Out of the guys in this group, Nelson and McEwen were the only ones who were in the top 7 last XC season
Hopefully they develop a low stick. It looks like a bunch of 9:35-9:40 guys at the moment. But significantly deeper than RM. For reference, a 3200 quad using lifetime bests (or converted 3k) between CDA-Rocky-Boise and Franklin next year would go:
Franklin scores 45, CDA scores 47, Rocky scores 54 and Boise scores 57. CDA probably holds up the best in a bigger meet. Rocky and Boise have the same problem that their number 3 guy runs 9:55ish.
You’ve got to understand the slight difference between 3200 times run in Idaho versus Oregon and Washington, you can’t compare those straight up due to differences in altitude and weather throughout the spring. Those top Idaho teams will be there to bang around in XC despite track time comparisons.
You’ve got to understand the slight difference between 3200 times run in Idaho versus Oregon and Washington, you can’t compare those straight up due to differences in altitude and weather throughout the spring. Those top Idaho teams will be there to bang around in XC despite track time comparisons.
Well, we'll get a good look at it on Friday when Rocky travels to Portland. Over/under 9 sec average improvement for the Rocky boys over 3000/3200m? Heemeyer would need to run 8:54, Hunter Hill will need to run 9:39, Hyrum Tuft will need to run 9:06 at 3000. I'm going to spam the under and say it's less than 4 seconds.
You’ve got to understand the slight difference between 3200 times run in Idaho versus Oregon and Washington, you can’t compare those straight up due to differences in altitude and weather throughout the spring. Those top Idaho teams will be there to bang around in XC despite track time comparisons.
My calculator put the altitude adjustment from Boise for a 3200 9:20 runner at 5 seconds. Plus a lot of the PRs for Idaho runners have been set at much lower elevations. I just don’t see a huge adjustment needed to compare west and north Idaho to Oregon and Washington.
What you are saying is generally true about East Idaho, however, which is at higher elevation and has much worse weather than Boise. Those schools look at going to Boise as their big shot to get fast fast times.
You’ve got to understand the slight difference between 3200 times run in Idaho versus Oregon and Washington, you can’t compare those straight up due to differences in altitude and weather throughout the spring. Those top Idaho teams will be there to bang around in XC despite track time comparisons.
My calculator put the altitude adjustment from Boise for a 3200 9:20 runner at 5 seconds. Plus a lot of the PRs for Idaho runners have been set at much lower elevations. I just don’t see a huge adjustment needed to compare west and north Idaho to Oregon and Washington.
What you are saying is generally true about East Idaho, however, which is at higher elevation and has much worse weather than Boise. Those schools look at going to Boise as their big shot to get fast fast times.
No, it's 100% going to be the case that the guy that ran 9:03 with his teammate taking him through 6 laps at 4:30 pace is going to run a ton faster. Never mind that his splits are going to be uneven and that unless he's doing all of the work, he's not going to have a chance to just go run really even and smooth for the entire race.
That's the thing that all of these Rocky fan boys ignore. Rocky's coach is really, really good. He's also really, really good at setting up opportunities in Boise for his top boys to run fast.