NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

I think American Fork will win. They barely lost to Crater, and Crater loses Gorze. American Fork loses only their #4

Wayzata is definitely a good candidate for the podium

Southlake Carroll and CBA had some guys sick at NXN and they each return 4 guys. They also return a lot of depth from JV. I would consider them good candidates to make the podium.

Union Catholic is another team to watch. They didn’t do well at NXR but they return 5 guys and add Wischusen.

They got 4th at RunningLane in 2021. This year was a rebuilding year for them

They have also brought in many transfers for the last few years. If they keep doing that they will contend for a spot on the podium

I feel like Herriman won’t disappear. Doug Soles always seems to reload his teams. They return their #3,6,7 from NXN and also 2 more guys that ran a 16:07 5K, both of which spent some time scoring for the team and ran at this year’s state meet. American Fork will still be better though

I wonder if Jesuit LA had anyone sick at RunningLane

Belen Jesuit, McCallie and Stevens Point look interesting too

Niwot and Riverton are other Southwest teams to watch

Ventura’s returning squad trumps all the others in California

I think the 2 teams that make it out of NY will finish dead last

Your counting out Herriman. How do you go from 4th in state to 3rd in nationals in less than one month time? Craziness and coach soles is coming back

I wonder what teams will actually make it out of the Southwest region

American Fork will win that region.

They did this year and lose no one but their #4.

Rest of the qualifying spots look to be up for grabs.

Herriman is losing 4 of their top 5 including 2 all-Americans. but they do return 3 guys from NXN and 2 more that ran at state and have 5K pr’s of 16:07

Niwot returns 3 of their top 5 from NXR, and many other very good sophomores including a soph who ran a 16:11. They also have freshmen other than Rocco who can step up and contribute. Many think they will win NXN in 2024.

Riverton won RunningLane and returns 3 of their top 5 from that race. Also another 16:11 guy from NXR. They just need to find a 5th. The problem is they go out too hard. This might give them problems in such a competitive region.

Orem and Lone Peak look interesting as well. Mountain Vista always seems to reload, progress well throughout the season, and race smart

Same take every year and yet it never happens. NY has a top 10 team pretty much every year and that’s not gonna change any time soon. Keep saying it though, maybe you’ll be right next time!

Nah it was not a take in 2019. Heartland teams were predicted to finish last.

They didn’t because Kamiakin and Eastwood had an off day

Someone will need to pull a Kamiakin or an Eastwood for a NY team to do better than 21st.

Heartland region is getting very good actually. Like how did this happen! Seriously!

I have no words for the individuals at Heartland. In 2019 the top guy was 31st. This year the top 3 went 5-6-7. They still all would have placed top 10 if the Youngs went 1-2.

The last 2 individuals at Heartland went 22-23. Better than the top finisher in 2019.

What about individuals?

I think Daniel Simmons should run away with the title.

Bryan Grevious really showed that he can compete with the big guys. He should be able to podium.

Nathan Neil is a junior not a senior. This is also his first year of XC. Used to play soccer. I think he will podium too.

Don’t count out guys like Jimmy Wischusen and Luke Athay who haven’t raced much this season.

Watch out for Sage Wilde too. I was surprised he didn’t qualify for NXN. So many other Midwest guys like Connell Alford, Cameron Todd, and Seth Norder are very good. Many others too.

Heartland was very strong on the individuals side this year. Some to watch next year are Sam Scott, Manny Putz, Aloysius Franzen, Bode Erickson, Clay Shively, Micah Blomker, Robert Mechura, Jack Witte, and Natnael Kifle. Franzen and Erickson are part of a team that will make it. So are Will Weber and Daniel McCollor.

Kids improve fast but unpredictably in HS. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if at this time next year, the class of ‘24 looks as good as the class of ‘23 and produces 5-10 guys speed rated over 200 at NXN. Aside from Simmons and Grevious, it is hard to know who they will be. Reilly could be up there if he’s healthy and makes XC a priority. Athay beat out Simmons last year for Idaho Gatorade XC runner of the year and was also a national preseason top 25. Koon, Wischusen, and Heemeyer have all looked the part too.

I thought Marcus Reilly signed up for ChampSports NE. But he didn’t participate. Anyone know what happened here? He did run a 187 speed rating at state though. But he didn’t go head to head against Aidan Ross though

Some TX guys to watch out for:

Adam Burlinson, Angel Sanchez and the Parras

Liebert will be another one to watch but I doubt he will be doing Nike

Nice list here
Another thing to note is that Crater is very much looking to be a 5-man team and will likely need a 6 and 7 step to up in case something goes wrong with the scorers.
We can say the same about American Fork, but I think they will find a 6 and 7. They always seem to have guys come out of nowhere.
Herriman should not be counted out for podium contention because they made the podium already, and although they lose 4 seniors, they return Doug Soles and this group:
Beckstrom (SR) - #3 on the team. also dropped just over 3.5 minutes from last year (on the NXN course!)
Hofheins (SR) - #6 on the team. Dropped approximately 2 minutes from last year. Very close to their 5th.
Wood (SR) - #7 on the team. Also dropped about 2 minutes from last year.
Steadman (SR) - ran for them at state and closed the 4-5 gap for them at the first race. Also beat teammate Wood at the JV state meet and ran faster than him at NXR. Steadman ran has 16:07 5K PR and dropped almost 1.5 minute from last year.
Ogomo (JR) - first off, he ran at the state meet both this year and last year. So he has lots of experience racing on the varsity. Has a 16:07 5K PR. Even though he didn’t make the NXN squad, like Steadman, he should be able to contribute if all goes well.
Wardle (SR) - ran at the state meet in 2021. Was knocked out of varsity because Herriman graduated no one and other people were hungry to get varsity spots. But being a junior and seeing Herriman lose 4 guys, next year he should be able to regain a varsity spot. He was only 3 seconds behind Wood in times at NXR
So that is 6 guys with plenty of varsity experience already
The last spot is looking to be up for grabs.
Some likely candidates-
Jonah and Micah Tang both class of 2025 - dropped 2.5-4 minutes from last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if they are both on varsity their senior year after seeing how many good class of 2024 guys there are on the team
So Herriman is looking to be 8-deep next year at least

I am in fact planning to do Nike next year. Thank you for mentioning me

Soles’ number 1 priority should be to be careful with those kids

I agree- American Fork has to be the leading team to return. NP is cooked. From the midwest, I see only Downers North coming back; Plainfield and Hinsdale lose too many runners, though Hinsdale has state champion Aden Bandekwala back, and he was 8th in team scoring this year. Plus Hinsdale has good coaching.

The boys team side for who will make it from the Midwest will be interesting

DGN keeps most of their squad

Other spot(s) look to be up for grabs.

Carmel faded at nxr (everyone thought they would win it easy) but they do keep 5 guys from it so it’s not the end of the world for them

Noblesville looked strong this year and keeps 5 guys. They might even challenge Carmel for the state title too. Both look similar

The other Plainfield team (North) is another one to watch

Newbury Park will struggle to return to nxn.

In California, Ventura is looking to be dominant. They keep pretty much everyone including the Fast Horse.

Trabuco Hills will be second especially if they close the 4-5 gap

San Clemente did very well and keeps most of their guys. There are others in CA that can challenge for a spot too

Ur an f’n idiot. Oh, and yes Herriman will win NXN next year.

Downers also returns their 1-2-5-7 from a team that we all clearly overlooked completely all season. They have now gone 13th in ‘16, 4th in ‘17, 3rd at Midwest in ‘21 (no NXN held) and 10th this year