NXR Heartland Predictions

Stevens Point has a nice team this year but they only got 4th at state last year and lost some seniors. Putting them at #5 is too bold at this point.
They will win state but Wisconsin is not strong as this year as last year. They also only have 1 senior this year.

1- Lakeville North MN. St Olaf showcase shows that they got an insane top 5.
2- Wayzata MN. They only got 3rd at their invitational but they were missing their best runner who lead the time trial.
3- Williston ND. This is a deep senior-laden team that won state last year and lost only 1 person. They could challenge for an NXN bid
4- Rosemount MN. Won the Irish invite but after having placed only 5th last year at state and losing 2 guys I like this team here at number 4. I would also like them to face against wayzata and lakeville north. Which will happen at Griak and conference.
5- Dowling Catholic IA. Missing Heidesch from last race but we all know how good he is. Also from last race they were missing another guy (Bootman) who scored for them at NXR. One guy from last year’s varsity team transferred out. Putting this team on here because for now I am trying to put a team from as many states as possible in the top 5

Watchlist:
Mounds View. JC was missing and Kalmes wasn’t scoring like he should have. If both score they could challenge for the mn state title and an NXN berth. Lead by Elliott McArthur who was part of the 2018 and 2019 NXN squads. Including the 2019 state championship squad. I’m keeping them out for now because they almost lost to Eden Prairie who also has a new head coach now. They are a deep squad. Losing Skelly was a big hole left, but Lelinga is filling in nicely.

Minneapolis Washburn MN. Beat McCollor-less Wayzata at the first meet but could win state and maybe go to NXN if their number 5 steps up.

Iowa City high. Not a top 5 team right now because they lost to Johnston. Strong top 3 but Smith needs to get healthy and their 5th needs to step up.

Millard West. Solid top 4 returning (with their #3 not raced yet). Needs a 5th to go get top 2 again.

Stevens Point. Will win state but they are very young and it would be nice to see them compete against schools I have in the top 5.

Johnston IA - I’m putting them on this list because they upset Iowa City today. They also seem to have had some guys missing

Jade Rypkema was battling Covid end of season 2021 and was in ER 3 weeks before state. She came back strong for track. She is underestimated as she had no competition up north. She is a wild card.

Quick update on top 5 boys teams:
1. Dowling Catholic. Won Griak
2. Lakeville North. Second at Griak
3. Wayzata. 3rd at Griak
4. Rosemount. 4th at Griak.
5. Williston ND (won state last year and only lost 1 person). Did not run Griak unfortunately.
Stevens point has Bode Erickson out but they could maybe crack the top 5 if he returns. Without him they managed to put 4 guys under 16:30.
Minnetonka has 3 scorers not at a 100% and could crack the top 5 too if everyone is healthy. This also includes Gilles who could go to NXN if healthy.

Way too early 2023 predictions for NXR boys teams
1. Wayzata MN. Loses only 1 person. Returns 4 guys who went under 15:50 at conference, plus another guy who ran a 16:20 there. If he can close the gap and if they find a low stick, they could contend for a national title
2. Stevens point WI. Returns their 1-6. 3 guys under 16, and 3 more under 16:30. Hasn’t won a state title in many many years, but this year they are looking to start a streak of state titles
3. Wichita Trinity KS. Placed 7th at Griak. Only losing 1 person.

4. Dowling Catholic IA. Won Griak this year. Losing their 1/2, but always a strong program and deep team otherwise. this team is also keeping pretty much everyone else on the team
5. Bismarck ND. Losing Korsmo, but very deep team with lots of young talent otherwise. Also, they are coming close to beating Williston this year.

Oh, and btw, if Wayzata and Stevens Point don’t get nationally ranked in the preseason rankings next year, it will mean that something is absurdly wrong with the preseason ranking system

Sophomore Katelyn Rupe from Kansas is a solid top 5 pick.

Iowa City High ran at their super conference meet the following times

14:50

15:35

15:55

15:56

16:18

But I guess Stevens Point with their top guys competing with City High's 5th man is somehow impressive.

City High isnt worried about Stevens Point. They're trying to figure out how to get around Dowling at State. If you're a City fan/runner, you should be too. And I hope they can get the job done but its not likely. Anything can happen though on race day.

City barely beat CRK and Dubuque Hempstead in this race.

Seems like their 4th man wasn’t as close to their 3rd as many of us think he should be.

they were also missing their 5th (marker)

they will at least need their 4th and 5th to be close to Dowling’s 3rd to beat them.

But regardless, it was impressive to see the guys on the back end of the varsity drop so much time from last year.

both on the Dowling and City High teams.

not surprising because both teams were deep last year and they were large in numbers so there were gonna be people stepping up

ia.milesplit.com

MVC Valley Divisional @ Waterloo 2022 - Boys 5k Varsity

MileSplits official Boys 5k Varsity formatted results for the 2022 MVC Valley Divisional @ Waterloo, hosted by Kauder Racing Results Service in Waterloo IA.

Link:ia.milesplit.com/meets/500991-mvc-vall...

I mean City’s 3rd. Well it would help even more if city’s 4th/5th are close to Dowling’s 3rd

They aren't beating Dowling.

Manny Putz from Wisconsin should have a shot at the only Sophomore qualifier. I believe Brekker is a lock, with Gilles, Scott, and Casey all having legit shots. Not sure if Keller can get in shape in time to back up his 6th place finish last year.

I think the top 4 look like this:

1. Simeon Birnbaum

2. Carson Noecker (not sure if he will doing NXR or Eastbay. He has NEVER done a national meet before OR raced against some real competition in XC his senior year. Look at his Woodbridge time though

3. Jackson Heidesch

4. Ford Washburn (good team but his team will end up not making NXN)

The rest of the spots are up for grabs. If dowling makes it there are 2 open spots if Birnbaum / noecker / Washburn do Nike

Manny Putz also has a shot to 3-peat at state

you can’t discount Owen Bosley though. A senior. His brother made it twice. I think he will be focusing on winning state this year than going to NXN .

There are some individuals from Kansas that could make it like Colby King, and Wyatt Haughton (he broke 15 twice), Clay Shivey (another sub 15 guy).

Micah Blomker is a good ks junior too

Noah Breker should be in the top 4 for sure, I'm going to predict 2nd behind Simeon.

be weary the Kansas times at Olathe Twilight, it was a pretty short course.

WYATT HAUGHTON is solid. CLAY SHIVELY hasn't been under 15:30 otherwise. COLBY KING only 15:19.

Colby king made a jump from a 18:51 sophomore year to a 15:32 junior year.
He did run a 9:34 in track in between though.
King was close to Wilde, Haughton, Shively and Wilde in his first race on this season though, running 14:50.
18:51 to 14:50 is still a really good jump in 2 years
He was 13 seconds behind heidesch his second race.
Third race he was 1 second behind Haughton
Shively is a really good junior, almost no seniors on his team. They did really well at Griak. He and his team are gonna be real good next year. Not sure about NXN possibilities.

That course is evidently pancake flat and super fast. Jedidiah Osgood of Marion ran 15:02 there a few weeks ago to Miles Wilson 15:07. I have no knowledge of the difficulty of Stevens Point’s courses, but you can’t cherry pick one team’s specific XC result and accurately compare it with the results of a team the next state over. Case in point, if you took City’s times from Griak it would look like a different story.

Additionally, I looked up some Stevens Point results, and at their most recent (conference) meet they went:

1. 15:36

2. 15:45

3. 15:59

4. 16:20

5. 16:21

6. 16:26

7. 16:30

That’s right, at their 7-school conference meet they swept the top 7 places. Do you seriously think City High’s 5th man would be competing with SP’s top guys?

Here are the results from the race that Iowa City ran today

I’m hoping for a dry, firm surface at Yankton Trails this year. I think a good course could bring some venue records for both the boys and girls.

Finn Gessner ran the boy’s record of 14:39 in 2016. Earlier this year, Simeon Birnbaum ran a 14:47 at the Heartland Preview, in a race in which he seemed content to simply bide his time in the chase back until the last kilometer or so. If he, Breker, Heidesch, and a few others push the pace from the start, I think the record could fall.

Tierney Wolfgram ran the girl’s record of 16:48 in 2017. We’ve already seen Abbey Nechanicky run 16:47 and 16:51 on more difficult courses this season. On that flat, fast course, with some of the same girls she faced at Griak in the mix, I think she could readily lower the course record.