Thank you. That was a very nice response, and I appreciate it. I am not a Williams runner, but I just hate BS generalities that add no value to the discussion (although on lets run, thats pretty hard to get away from).
Gotcha. That's fair, and I'm the same way, which is why I tried to add some legitimate discussion besides the minor troll I sent Williams way.
Thank you. That was a very nice response, and I appreciate it. I am not a Williams runner, but I just hate BS generalities that add no value to the discussion (although on lets run, thats pretty hard to get away from). As the name implies, I'm just a lover of D3, and like you, I've been trying to analyze the teams and also looking at who the new recruits are. They don't often make a huge difference in the standings, but since a lot of teams are starting to post the new classes, its interesting. I would also add that I think Mah from MIT may have been a senior. So they might be losing their 2,5,7 runners which would be more interesting. And yes, I too like the underdog, and would love to see someone else give PP a run for its money. But I would like to know what happened to Pomona in outdoor. Did they get sick? I wouldn't say their times were bad, and their depth is insane, but only putting 1 runner in the top 30 in the 5k has to be considered a bit of a disappointment. I know they lost their coach to Boston last year. Is it having an effect?
The PP men’s team was hit hard by Covid mid to late track season. I think this had a major adverse impact on conference and post conference performances. Early season they had something like 14-16 runners break 15 in the 5000 in the same meet. They remain very deep for next year. For example, arguably their best middle distance runner, rising junior Bennett Booth-Genthe (3:45 1500), was not top 7 last year. Next year he will be up front. Colin Kirkpatrick remains very strong up front too (8:46 3000sc). They are every bit as strong as in the prior year, maybe stronger.
I looked through the 5k results from this year's outdoor, and compiled the returners for XC and did a hypothetical race to see where the teams would place. Granted, this is based only on 5k results, and its an 8k for XC, and not everyone ran a 5k this spring (although most did), and it doesn't take into account any new recruits, or moving people up for graduating seniors, but I think its interesting to see where everyone shakes out. Here are the top 10. I will add that UW Whitewater did not have enough people to score a team, so they are not included.
PP- 203
Williams- 300
JCU- 357
WIS La Crosse- 515
CMS- 595
Wartburg- 596
RPI-728
NCC- 766
Wash U- 895
MIT- 939
I was surprised at how low MIT was, but they were not particularly strong in the 5k this spring. I also think Wash U is a little under rated as well. But for now, it looks like PP, Williams, and JCU are pretty far ahead. But JCU is based on Alex Philip returning and there were rumors he was transferring D1, but who knows if thats true.
I have insight from a member of the JCU team (a couple months ago, so a little outdated) that he just entered the portal to get ahead, and plans to stay with the team for the rest of the year and transfer following Spring 2023.
I think Phillip is coming back. I saw an interview where he said he wanted to finish his undergrad at JCU. But then he entered the portal, so it caused confusion. If he returns, that will certainly make John Carroll competitive at nationals this year. But I don’t know if they have the backend to compete with Pomona or Williams without Jamie Daley. Rumor has it that Williams grabbed another super freshman this year.
Williams is getting a stud recruit in nikhil denatale, 9:01 high school steeple and ny state champ... he'll be top 20 at ncaas. That gives an already great team another low stick
Williams is getting a stud recruit in nikhil denatale, 9:01 high school steeple and ny state champ... he'll be top 20 at ncaas. That gives an already great team another low stick
Denatale would be a great addition to Williams. He is an amazing steepler. I wonder how he will translate to the 8k distance. Steeplers don’t typically excel in XC. (Collete won it in an 8:50 this year but was 80th in XC). and the top distance guys like Philip and Lindgren don’t do steeple so they don’t always seem to translate. Either way, the kid is a stud so a great pick up by Williams.
Denatale would be a great addition to Williams. He is an amazing steepler. I wonder how he will translate to the 8k distance. Steeplers don’t typically excel in XC. (Collete won it in an 8:50 this year but was 80th in XC). and the top distance guys like Philip and Lindgren don’t do steeple so they don’t always seem to translate. Either way, the kid is a stud so a great pick up by Williams.
I think Kirkpatrick (PP) was fastest in D3 3000sc this year (8:46) and he was 10th last year at xc nationals.
You may be right. I only looked at nationals top 8 this year and they didn’t have great XC seasons. It’s certainly possible that steeplers can be solid distance runners, so I shouldn’t generalize. It’s also hard to gauge what a frosh will do in their first year. I think tuohy was the top true frosh last year in XC and he was 19th coming in with an 8:58 3200. I believe the next was drew Donahue from middlebury and he was 42nd coming in with a 9:01. so they can certainly impact the results. And with 4 nescac runners earning AA honors in the 10k this year, it’s going to be competitive. I’m super excited for the season.
You may be right. I only looked at nationals top 8 this year and they didn’t have great XC seasons. It’s certainly possible that steeplers can be solid distance runners, so I shouldn’t generalize. It’s also hard to gauge what a frosh will do in their first year. I think tuohy was the top true frosh last year in XC and he was 19th coming in with an 8:58 3200. I believe the next was drew Donahue from middlebury and he was 42nd coming in with a 9:01. so they can certainly impact the results. And with 4 nescac runners earning AA honors in the 10k this year, it’s going to be competitive. I’m super excited for the season.
Far more often than not freshman men don’t move the needle regardless of talent and later impact. I think there was only 1 in the top 20 at xc nationals (19th) and only 4 in the top 50.
Would love to see Middlebury do well at Nats, but their 3 and 4 were academic seniors so they are likely gonna have some holes to fill.
Middleberry had a great year and I think they have a lot of up and coming talent. Donahue has the potential to be a superstar and it looks like they are getting some decent recruits. Plus the coach appears to be doing a good job developing them. I don’t know if they can hang with Williams, but they will be competitive in the Nescac.
You may be right. I only looked at nationals top 8 this year and they didn’t have great XC seasons. It’s certainly possible that steeplers can be solid distance runners, so I shouldn’t generalize. It’s also hard to gauge what a frosh will do in their first year. I think tuohy was the top true frosh last year in XC and he was 19th coming in with an 8:58 3200. I believe the next was drew Donahue from middlebury and he was 42nd coming in with a 9:01. so they can certainly impact the results. And with 4 nescac runners earning AA honors in the 10k this year, it’s going to be competitive. I’m super excited for the season.
Far more often than not freshman men don’t move the needle regardless of talent and later impact. I think there was only 1 in the top 20 at xc nationals (19th) and only 4 in the top 50.
Good question. Odd that nothing is posted. I’ve not asked “my source” for fear of getting the dreaded “eye roll.”
I would generally agree with you, but placing any first years in the top 50 will probably be a big help to most teams. Maybe not Pomona which is pretty stacked, but most other programs would be thrilled to have a freshman step in and get top 50.
As for 2022 XC Nats, Williams most likely will have two in the top five. According to the above post, they have their 4,5,6 and 7 returning this year and they should theoretically perform better than last year. If a frosh can come in and get a top 20 spot, then they would definitely give Pomona a run for their money.
I was curious so I took a look at the top 15 finishers from 2021 Nats, and counted the returning runners (did the best I could, obviously COVID will mess some up). Feel free to correct anything wrong with your team.
1. PP: 5 returners, lose 5+6
2. MIT: 5 returners, lose 2+7
3. Williams: 6 returners, only lose Aidan Ryan
4. John Carroll: 4 returners, lose 2+6+7
5. UW-Whitewater: 4 returners, lose 1+5+7
6. CMS: 3 returners, lose 2+4+5+6+7
7. WashU: 4 returners, lose 2+4+5
8. Geneseo: 5 returners, lose 3+6
9. Fartburg: 1 returner, lose everyone but 4 (barring fifth years, looks like everyone's a senior)
10. UW- La Crosse: 7 returners
11. UChicago: 3 returners, lose 1+2+4+5
12. Carnegie Mellon: 5 returners, lose 1+6
13. Middlebury: 7 returners
14. RPI: 5 returners, lose 2+4
15. North Central: 5 returners, lose 1+7 (DNF)
Based on this I'll give my predictions for the top 10
1. MIT- The perfection that is MIT's pack running and their cake walk through regionals could be a big help.
2. PP- Hard to win coming in as the clear favorites. Threepeat would be sick though. Would love to see them prove me wrong.
3. William- Likely the best 1-2, but a young team and dare I say a history of choking might be hard to overcome.
4. UW La Crosse- Returning 7 from a team already in the top 10 is pretty huge. Could see them sneaking into top 3.
5. WashU- Always find a way to put it together at Nationals. Stiles is a stud and they put together some real impressive performances in track.
6. John Carroll- Losing Jamie Dailey will be huge, but they still have the clear favorite for the individual title. I see them dropping a bit from 4th last year, but nothing significant.
7. Geneseo- Underperformed a bit last year, and seemed to lack depth on the distance side. We'll have to see how much their stellar 1-2 can help out.
8. Carnegie Mellon- Another team that underperformed last year. Always seem to run better at UAAs than Nats, but with the joke that is the Mid-Atlantic Region they might just be fresh enough to figure something out.
9. CMS- While they did have extreme depth in track, they lose a lot from their 2021 squad that finished. I hope this isn't me underestimating the Cali boys like many did last year, but it will be hard to improve on last years placing.
10. Middlebury- Kind of seemed like last year was best case scenario. Returning everyone is big, just couldn't bring myself to put them ahead of any of the top 9. Definitely a team I'll be rooting for next year.
Hm: U Chicago, Whitewater, anyone but Fartburg.
Not seeing U Chicago or Whitewater as anywhere close to the top 10. Chicago graduated their #1, #2, #4, and #5 runners from their nationals team, and their best outdoor times from returners were 15:06 and 32:12 (same guy). Whitewater isn't as bad, but their #4-#5 aren't strong enough without significant improvement for them to be near the top 10.
St. Olaf, Lynchburg, Johns Hopkins, or Haverford (or North Central/Wartburg) would all be better HM picks.
Not surprised by how low MIT is on those 5k rankings -- they lost their number 1, Acquaviva, for track season (he wasn't on the roster). Probably did the classic drop out and try to make a startup move. MIT will probably regret that come xc, which is why I don't have them in my top 3. Still think they're better than those 5k rankings show due to their pack running though.
Denatale will be a huge addition for williams. Could see them winning natties with him.
Not surprised by how low MIT is on those 5k rankings -- they lost their number 1, Acquaviva, for track season (he wasn't on the roster). Probably did the classic drop out and try to make a startup move. MIT will probably regret that come xc, which is why I don't have them in my top 3. Still think they're better than those 5k rankings show due to their pack running though.
Denatale will be a huge addition for williams. Could see them winning natties with him.
You never know who comes back from year to year. He could have been injured or studying abroad for all we know. But yes, without him, MIT would not be as strong, and pack running can only get you so far. As for Williams, it will be interesting. They lost All World Aidan Ryan, which you would think would be pretty serious. But they still have Lindgren (who was second at XC last year) and the rising sophomore Tuohy who came in 2nd in the 5k in outdoor and was 5th in the 10k. Sure Philip and Tyler Morris will be up there with them fighting for the individual title, but saying Williams could have 2 in the top 5 is a pretty safe bet. If Denatale can make the jump to the longer distance (he was a 9:01 3200 his junior year, but appears to have only focused on SC his senior year) then they could probably land another in the top 20. Then it just boils down to their 4 and 5 runners. The good news is that they returned everyone from 4 to 7 and even looks like they got some of people who improved over outdoor. Assuming two of those can break into the top 40 (its a big assumption, but possible) then yes, Williams can potentially beat PP. But I would also guess that PP will put all 5 of their runners in the top 40. They may not be in the 80's again this year, but it will certainly take a sub 100 to win.
I also wonder about holding Nationals in late November in Michigan (whose idea was that?). The weather could be fine, but it could also be 15 degrees with snow on the ground. I'm making a big assumption here, but I have to think that the PP boys (which are used to running in almost perfect temps every day) would be at a slight disadvantage to those from Ohio, NY, or Mass who are probably used to running in a bit more "variable" conditions. I may be completely off base, but does anyone else see the weather being a potential factor this year?