d3 xc nationals predictions

Williams had some solid 10k guys this track season … I’ve got them edging out Pomona. Fartburg is gonna fall even farther with an even worse team this year, not even top 10 for them

Choke artist williams? PP gonna be so far ahead of them at nationals its not even funny. No way they can scrape together a good 3-5

Don’t count out NCC either …

Who cares what they run in a paced time trial with cheaterflys? Williams will choke under pressure. PP takes the team title and Tyler Morris wins the individual title

Agree with the top four, would put LaCrosse over Geneseo at #5.

How many outdoor qualifiers did NCC have in the 800-10,000 m this year?

Top 10 Men
1. Pomona-Pitzer
2. Williams
3. John Carroll
4. MIT
5. Wis.-La Crosse
6. SUNY Geneseo
7. Washington U.
8. RPI
9. North Central (Ill.)
10. Wartburg

Top 10 Women
1. Wartburg
2. SUNY Geneseo
3. Johns Hopkins
4. Williams
5. U. of Chicago
6. Washington U.
7. Amherst
8. MIT
9. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
10. Pomona-Pitzer

who is the coach at ncc

I love all the haters who constantly say Williams will Choke. Based on what? A single season in 2019 where they were predicted to dominate and ended up 3rd. Two podiums in the last 2 XC seasons is nothing to cry about. Throw in a 3rd place indoor last year, and Williams has had a great 2 or 3 years.

As for next season, I agree that PP is the team to beat, but I also would like to honestly know what happened to them in outdoor. They REALLY underperformed. Wether it was illness, overtraining, or maybe a delayed reaction to Carpenter leaving, but if PP runs like they did in track, there is no way they can win XC.

As for the individual title, I'd say its Alex Phillip's to lose (if he doesn't transfer), but I would add Grahm Tuohy-Gaydos, Elias Lindgren, Henry Pick, and Tyler Morris into the mix as well. I don't think the winner is a given this year. I honestly like Tuohy, he will be a sophomore, and he just keeps getting better every race. And I'd never bet against anyone with that last name.

Reasoning for top 3 woman? I think CMS to win it all based on track performance.

From last year's 2nd place team, CMS loses three of their top five to graduation, so among returners only Bloss (13th) and Bitetti (16th) finished in the top 100. Outside of those two, the best track times from non-seniors were 17:56, 38:54, and 11:49 (steeple).

In track, Geneseo had non-seniors run 16:53 (and 34:26), 17:17, 17:27 (and 10:36 steeple), 17:30, 17:41, and 17:47. Wartburg had non-seniors run 16:48 (and 10:20 steeple), 17:16 (and 35:53), 17:24, 17:36 (and 10:38 steeple), 17:50, 17:52, and 11:10 (steeple).

agree with the womens picks but think Hopkins will pull it together for top 2 at least.

who is going to carry Hopkins to a top 2 finish? Then again, probably could have asked that question last year too before the season

They always seem to have people step up

Decent take but I think some other teams that have been under the radar will take the 9 and 10 spots. North Central is done with their heyday and Wartburg is loosing key runners and always seem to choke when it matters.

I was curious so I took a look at the top 15 finishers from 2021 Nats, and counted the returning runners (did the best I could, obviously COVID will mess some up). Feel free to correct anything wrong with your team.

1. PP: 5 returners, lose 5+6

2. MIT: 5 returners, lose 2+7

3. Williams: 6 returners, only lose Aidan Ryan

4. John Carroll: 4 returners, lose 2+6+7

5. UW-Whitewater: 4 returners, lose 1+5+7

6. CMS: 3 returners, lose 2+4+5+6+7

7. WashU: 4 returners, lose 2+4+5

8. Geneseo: 5 returners, lose 3+6

9. Fartburg: 1 returner, lose everyone but 4 (barring fifth years, looks like everyone's a senior)

10. UW- La Crosse: 7 returners

11. UChicago: 3 returners, lose 1+2+4+5

12. Carnegie Mellon: 5 returners, lose 1+6

13. Middlebury: 7 returners

14. RPI: 5 returners, lose 2+4

15. North Central: 5 returners, lose 1+7 (DNF)

Based on this I'll give my predictions for the top 10

1. MIT- The perfection that is MIT's pack running and their cake walk through regionals could be a big help.

2. PP- Hard to win coming in as the clear favorites. Threepeat would be sick though. Would love to see them prove me wrong.

3. William- Likely the best 1-2, but a young team and dare I say a history of choking might be hard to overcome.

4. UW La Crosse- Returning 7 from a team already in the top 10 is pretty huge. Could see them sneaking into top 3.

5. WashU- Always find a way to put it together at Nationals. Stiles is a stud and they put together some real impressive performances in track.

6. John Carroll- Losing Jamie Dailey will be huge, but they still have the clear favorite for the individual title. I see them dropping a bit from 4th last year, but nothing significant.

7. Geneseo- Underperformed a bit last year, and seemed to lack depth on the distance side. We'll have to see how much their stellar 1-2 can help out.

8. Carnegie Mellon- Another team that underperformed last year. Always seem to run better at UAAs than Nats, but with the joke that is the Mid-Atlantic Region they might just be fresh enough to figure something out.

9. CMS- While they did have extreme depth in track, they lose a lot from their 2021 squad that finished. I hope this isn't me underestimating the Cali boys like many did last year, but it will be hard to improve on last years placing.

10. Middlebury- Kind of seemed like last year was best case scenario. Returning everyone is big, just couldn't bring myself to put them ahead of any of the top 9. Definitely a team I'll be rooting for next year.

Hm: U Chicago, Whitewater, anyone but Fartburg.

Craig's Mullet, appreciate the analysis, and it is very useful to look at returners, but one of the key benefits of pack running is the assumption that the other teams 3,4,5 runners don't have good days. In the case of PP, they have enough decent runners to still have 5 guys in the top 40. Thats a tough total to beat. MIT might not even put 1 guy in the top 20, and they may only have 1 guy in the top 30. Its tough to win when they don't have any low sticks. Let's not forget, Williams beat MIT twice before nationals in head to head racing. Williams will most likely have 2 guys in the top 5 (which is amazing when you consider Ryan leaving) But will their 3,4,5's be up to the task, that is the question for them? But this stupidity about choking makes absolutely no sense. No one on the current roster has a history of choking. And the team has been very successful the last 3 years. As I recall, PP was talking big about having 5 guys break 14:10 in outdoor. News flash (they had 0, and only 1 guy even broke 14:20!). Did they "choke"? Or how about Alex Philip coming in 8th in the 5k at nats and barely winning the 10k? Did he "choke", or was it the rail's fault? Explain to me how this choking thing works, because I sure haven't seen Williams, JCU, PP, or anyone else "choke" over the last year. Except for maybe Wartburg who I will say has underperformed in all 3 nats performances in the last year.

Slipped in one negative comment about Williams and you seemed to get quite upset. The whole Williams choking thing is a classic on letsrun (see the other multiple people who mentioned it), I was just having fun. I literally said they have the best 1-2 and predicted them to be 3. And yes, their 3-4-5 being up to the task is the question for them. Don’t forget 5 athletes score.
And no, Alex Phillip, 4 time national champ, is not a choker. PP, coming off of back to back national championships, also not a choker. I acknowledged that PP is the clear favorite, and for good reason, but I would rather root for the underdog. They also had a 1-2-3 running 24:16 last year, so it’s not like they don’t have top talent.
Not sure if you’re a Williams jv runner, or maybe someone who just loves to pick apart every post on letsrun, but I was just putting out some data with reasoning to back up my opinions, as I feel like that’s more productive and useful than people just listing 10 schools. I am truly sorry if my post offended you, I will do better.

Thank you. That was a very nice response, and I appreciate it. I am not a Williams runner, but I just hate BS generalities that add no value to the discussion (although on lets run, thats pretty hard to get away from). As the name implies, I'm just a lover of D3, and like you, I've been trying to analyze the teams and also looking at who the new recruits are. They don't often make a huge difference in the standings, but since a lot of teams are starting to post the new classes, its interesting. I would also add that I think Mah from MIT may have been a senior. So they might be losing their 2,5,7 runners which would be more interesting. And yes, I too like the underdog, and would love to see someone else give PP a run for its money. But I would like to know what happened to Pomona in outdoor. Did they get sick? I wouldn't say their times were bad, and their depth is insane, but only putting 1 runner in the top 30 in the 5k has to be considered a bit of a disappointment. I know they lost their coach to Boston last year. Is it having an effect?