What is the average improvement for a 9:45 runner in college?

I ran 9:39 in HS in 1990. I walked on to a bad Big Ten team and ended up running 15:12, 31:30 in track and around 25:30 in XC. My 3K time indoor was 8:48, but I didn’t run much indoor.

The average will not be good because some stinkers will skew it upwards. But I would say 8:45/15:10.

hi school senior wrote:

If you were to follow the results of a thousand 9:45 high school runners, what would be their average personal bests when they graduate college?

Does he break 15 for 5k? 8:45 for 3k?

Those are solid goals for a 9:45 HS guy. Not necessarily achievable, and my guess is that most would NOT reach those goals, but for a guy who wants to get the most out of their talent and takes college training seriously (this is most likely NOT a D1 guy).

My own experience is this:

I ran 9:48 in HS.

I never ran a 3k in college, but I did an indoor 2 mile in 9:21 which the calculator says is an 8:41 equivalent.

I ran the 5,000 in 14:58.

This was the height of my limited ability, and the only reason I did get under the times you mention even though I said most will not is because I ran in HS when "less is more" was the philosophy, and we ran 9-15 MPW...that's it. Seeing what HS runners today run, I ASSUME that a 9:45 HS guy is running more than I did in high school.

Are you just curious what we all think? Are you a 9:45 guy who wants to reach those goals in college? My OPINIION is that a 9:45 guy likely has the talent to get to those milestones...most will not simply because they won't do enough of the work to do so.

If you ran 70+ MPW in high school to get to the 9:45, then you MIGHT have a harder time reaching those goals, but that's not for sure. Lots of college guys do 100, 110, 120, and even more MPW during their base phase.

If by "average" you mean the median...fewer than half of those thousand guys will run in college, so the "average" will not improve at all.

This is all great information. I'm looking at college programs and the development of their athletes from their high school times. I want to pick a school with a good track record of development of athletes with my high school times.

Some schools have 9:45 athletes that are running 9 minutes and other schools have those runners hitting under 8:30 for 3k.

I graduated 9:37 for 3200m.

College ended up 2 x DI All-Region XC

Consistent 8:20, 9:00sc, 14:20, 30:30.

hi school senior wrote:

Some schools have 9:45 athletes that are running 9 minutes and other schools have those runners hitting under 8:30 for 3k.

Don’t forget, it’s not all because of the college program. Not all 9:45 high schoolers are created equally. Some may come into college with considerably more training under their belts and, possibly, less potential for growth.

I see no reason why a moderately trained 9:45 guy isn’t running 15:00 and 8:40 in 3-4 years. Some will probably do that in the first year.

i ran 9:55 in my last high school race, which was a 9 second PR. freshman year of college i ran 9:10 for the 3K indoors so i was on a pretty good trajectory. then i hit a huge plateau and became a head case/burnout for pretty much the rest of my college career. i did manage a 9:01 my junior indoor season in one of my brief non-sucking periods which is my lifetime PR 11 years later (not that i tried in the interim). guys that i was faster than my freshman year ended up running 15:30.

don't be like me - if you have bad races or sometimes run slower than high school even, just keep the faith and keep putting in the miles. college running can be tough mentally, so be kind to yourself.

In general, the "average" improvement for a runner who stays relatively healthy and competes for four years would be to take a minute off your high school 3200, and run that in a 3k. So a 9:45 guy should be looking to run 8:45 or so in college (and by extrapolation, 15:10 or so for 5k). If you can take more than that off, you've had a good career for your talent level.

my two pennies wrote:

In general, the "average" improvement for a runner who stays relatively healthy and competes for four years would be to take a minute off your high school 3200, and run that in a 3k. So a 9:45 guy should be looking to run 8:45 or so in college (and by extrapolation, 15:10 or so for 5k). If you can take more than that off, you've had a good career for your talent level.

3000 is kind of an odd distance but running 5000 at HS 2-mile PR pace is typical improvement in college which would be 15:08 for 9:45.

I ran 9:36 in HS off moderate training (50-55mpw). I went to a well coached D1 school where I ran 8:26 3k, 14:38 5k and 30:32 10k off ~80-90mpw by my senior year. We had guys with slower HS times who went sub 30 for the 10k. I think coaching is a huge variable and I was very fortunate. I’d pay close attention to the level of talent the coach is recruiting and how well those guys develop.

I went 9:42, 4:37 in high school training 70 mpw and went to a small D3 school, progressed to 4:25, 8:42, 14:40s 30:20, and then 24:40s for the 8k running around 90-100 mpw. Had teammates with similar jumps, 2 roommates who were high 4:20-mid 4:30s guys who ran 3:50 in the 1500. Good coaching and making sure you’re gonna be a major piece at the right program is key.

My fastest 3200 in high school was a 10:05 and my 1600 was 4:32. Those were run my senior year off 70 mpw. I've since been running anywhere from 80 - 120 mpw consistently and as a Junior in college, I just opened my season with an 8:33 3k and plan to run much faster. Just figure out what works for you, a coach can only help so much, it's all about recovery and what you do on your easy days that determines how good you will be. Anyone can workout hard, but not everyone can live the lifestyle that leads to improvement. (My average easy pace is about 8:30/mi and I almost never go over 70 minutes on an easy day, but I double everyday except long run days).

Good luck!

Tribe wrote:

I ran 9:36 in HS off moderate training (50-55mpw). I went to a well coached D1 school where I ran 8:26 3k, 14:38 5k and 30:32 10k off ~80-90mpw by my senior year. We had guys with slower HS times who went sub 30 for the 10k. I think coaching is a huge variable and I was very fortunate. I’d pay close attention to the level of talent the coach is recruiting and how well those guys develop.

based on your username, did you go to William and Mary?

lease wrote:

If by "average" you mean the median...fewer than half of those thousand guys will run in college, so the "average" will not improve at all.

Of those kids who do run in college, I would bet the majority end up quitting the team at some point before graduating.

hi school senior wrote:

Tribe wrote:

I ran 9:36 in HS off moderate training (50-55mpw). I went to a well coached D1 school where I ran 8:26 3k, 14:38 5k and 30:32 10k off ~80-90mpw by my senior year. We had guys with slower HS times who went sub 30 for the 10k. I think coaching is a huge variable and I was very fortunate. I’d pay close attention to the level of talent the coach is recruiting and how well those guys develop.

based on your username, did you go to William and Mary?

Yes - but a long time ago

Don’t give up. Run for the joy. You never know what can happen.

Pat Porter:

9:40 2 mile to multi time national xc champ and Olympian.

dont give up wrote:

Don’t give up. Run for the joy. You never know what can happen.

Pat Porter:

9:40 2 mile to multi time national xc champ and Olympian.

Did Pat Porter look like a 9:40 2-miler to you? Unless the OP is also built like a Kenyan, Porter is not a good comp.

my two pennies wrote:

In general, the "average" improvement for a runner who stays relatively healthy and competes for four years would be to take a minute off your high school 3200, and run that in a 3k. So a 9:45 guy should be looking to run 8:45 or so in college (and by extrapolation, 15:10 or so for 5k). If you can take more than that off, you've had a good career for your talent level.

This seems like a pretty accurate estimate. I know there are a lot of stories of individuals who run insane times after only 9:45 in high school but there are equally as many who don't.

So far in my research it looks like smaller schools develop 9:45 runners much better than bigger schools. Why is that?