Many ran under the effects of recent Covid. Likely the infection impacted the training and then performance levels of several of the better athletes during key moments in the season.
I will add that Covid really impacted the season on the east coast as well. I can't speak for all D1 schools, but the ones I follow lifted their Covid testing and restrictions very early in the process. The D3 Schools like Pomona, Williams, Amherst, and Wash U were much tougher and are still testing 1-2 times per week. Right up until nationals. Which means that even if an athlete is asymptomatic, if they test positive, they are out. Out of in person classes, meets, training, eating with team mates, basically isolation for up to 10 days. Not only is that adding a lot of stress to the process, but it also severely impacts your training if you have to sit for 10 days. That's not even considering any of the effects of getting Covid. This is just the ramifications of testing positive. I know several key members of the Nescac have been out most of the season due to this, so I can assume Pomona is very similar. There is no doubt in my mind that the Covid precautions have impacted the Liberal Arts schools of D3 far greater than the bigger D1 programs.
Yes, the PP testing protocol took out a lot of runners with no symptoms, and of course others became mildly to moderately ill with the disease too. The T&F teams were particularly hard it. My child looked to be on track to score in the conference meet when Covid was diagnosed on asymptomatic screening 10-11 days before the meet. After a day of a scratchy throat and sniffles and low grade fever, it was like another week plus of being locked in a room and barely allowed outside for a short walk each day, and not every day. Release day was the afternoon before the conference meet, so no way now to meaningfully compete and the season was over. No time to make up for the lost fitness for any of the post conference meets either.
The only Ivy League team they would beat is Brown.
I'm not a huge fan of Pomona, but I can use TFRRS, and in a hypothetical HEPS meet + Pomona in the 5k, the score would be:
Princeton-39
Harvard-51
Penn-109
Yale-115
Pomona- 144
Columbia- 153
Dartmouth- 163
Cornell- 216
Brown- 222
So even with their "terrible" season, they would still place solidly in the middle of the Ivies and beat 4 of them.
Your math is bad. Cornell (and the teams you put ahead of Cornell) would beat Pomona with ease.
Cornell puts 2 WAY IN FRONT OF Pomona's #1. (13:51 runner and 29:13 runner). Cornell's #3 (8:11/3:41) is likely ahead of Pomona's #1 as well, at least ahead of Pomona's #2. If other people are using COVID as an excuse for Pomona, you can also consider Cornell's top runner is hurt (23:56 8k PR).
At a meet like Ivy Leagues, the front runners are much more important than small differences between #4/5. Look at Dartmouth and Columbia in 2021, for example.
Columbia - 128 - 11, 20, 27, 33, 37
Dartmouth - 132 - 22, 25, 26, 29, 30
Dartmouth had a better 3, 4, & 5 but it wasn't enough to catch up because of Columbia's #1 and #2.
I don't know how you learned math when you were in College, but woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn't really matter. I simply went to TFRRS and pulled the performance list for the entire 2022 OUTDOOR season for the Ivies, and then inserted Pomona's times into it. This is not a championship meet race, and of course isn't head to head. Its simply best season times in a hypothetical race. I also didn't try to factor in any 10k or 1500M times as they don't matter. If they chose not to run the 5k race, then they can't be counted. And for those that are hurt, the same can be argued for Pomona. While I never felt they would get 5 under 14:10, I would say they severely under performed. It could be covid, injuries, finals, burn out, too much partying, who knows. And I don't care. Again, times are times, and these are the results. If you want to download the TFRRS info yourself and check me, go ahead, but I'm pretty confident in my results.
what are your stats for this? are you including indoor times? I can't really figure out what you mean
No indoor times. Simply took the outdoor performance list for the ivies, inserted Pomona into it, and then ran a top 5 analysis as if it was a race. Schools like Princeton and Harvard had a lot more runners than most, but I capped it at top 5 to make it so everyone could "field" a team.
I don't know how you learned math when you were in College, but woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn't really matter. I simply went to TFRRS and pulled the performance list for the entire 2022 OUTDOOR season for the Ivies, and then inserted Pomona's times into it. This is not a championship meet race, and of course isn't head to head. Its simply best season times in a hypothetical race. I also didn't try to factor in any 10k or 1500M times as they don't matter. If they chose not to run the 5k race, then they can't be counted. And for those that are hurt, the same can be argued for Pomona. While I never felt they would get 5 under 14:10, I would say they severely under performed. It could be covid, injuries, finals, burn out, too much partying, who knows. And I don't care. Again, times are times, and these are the results. If you want to download the TFRRS info yourself and check me, go ahead, but I'm pretty confident in my results.
Princeton- 2,3,10,11,13 for 39
Harvard- 1,5,7,10,15,23 for 51
Penn- 9,18,19,22,41 for 109
Yale- 8,14,26,33,34 for 115
Pomona- 21,27,30,31,35 for 144
Columbia- 4,25,36,43,45 for 153
Dartmouth- 12,28,32,37,54 for 163
Cornell- 6,39,51,57,63 for 216
Brown- 29,44,46,59,60
Ok it's apparent you have no interest in being fair, you just want to hype up the D3 schools.
Why doesn't a 10k time matter if we are talking about cross country 8k? Cornell has a 29:11 10k runner that didn't run a 5k, he's 44 seconds ahead of Pomona's top 10k (who is also their top 5k runner). They have another that is 4 seconds faster in the 1500 than Pomona's top, and that same guy has run 8:11 for the indoor 3k which is 10 seconds faster than the top Pomona athlete.
I don't know about not being fair, but I don't hide my desire to pump up D3 schools. I'm proud of the athletes who choose to go the D3 route even if they obviously could have gone D1. I think the running/academic balance is admirable. Granted, the Ivies do a good job of that as well, so I certainly don't want to make this more than it should be. I was simply arguing that in a hypothetical match up of current 5k runners between the Ivies and Pomona, this is where Pomona would come out. Obviously I set this up a more of an XC format because track is only top 8 which means it would only be about the best runner on each team, and in that case, the Ivies would easily win. Also, 5 of the 9 teams wouldn't even score a point so it would be kind of useless. Instead I was trying to illustrate that Pomona's depth and consistency is actually capable of beating many D1 schools in a head to head 5k match up counting their top 5. I agree, if everyone was healthy, and everyone ran the 5k, the Ivies would drop in more times. I also would argue that Harvard would probably beat Princeton in that scenario. Let's not forget Graham Blanks is like 8th in this scenario at a 13:51 and we all know he is a lot faster. In the end, a lot of people didn't run great this spring, and a lot of folks had stellar seasons. Any given year, and any given day. But, based on the data we have, as limited as it may be, Pomona would do just fine against the Ivies.
I don't know about not being fair, but I don't hide my desire to pump up D3 schools. I'm proud of the athletes who choose to go the D3 route even if they obviously could have gone D1. I think the running/academic balance is admirable. Granted, the Ivies do a good job of that as well, so I certainly don't want to make this more than it should be. I was simply arguing that in a hypothetical match up of current 5k runners between the Ivies and Pomona, this is where Pomona would come out. Obviously I set this up a more of an XC format because track is only top 8 which means it would only be about the best runner on each team, and in that case, the Ivies would easily win. Also, 5 of the 9 teams wouldn't even score a point so it would be kind of useless. Instead I was trying to illustrate that Pomona's depth and consistency is actually capable of beating many D1 schools in a head to head 5k match up counting their top 5. I agree, if everyone was healthy, and everyone ran the 5k, the Ivies would drop in more times. I also would argue that Harvard would probably beat Princeton in that scenario. Let's not forget Graham Blanks is like 8th in this scenario at a 13:51 and we all know he is a lot faster. In the end, a lot of people didn't run great this spring, and a lot of folks had stellar seasons. Any given year, and any given day. But, based on the data we have, as limited as it may be, Pomona would do just fine against the Ivies.
So you are bragging that a D3 team might get 2nd to last or 3rd to last in a D1 conference that has no scholarships... meaning in a completely level playing field, Pomona is nearly last.
And in fairness, Pomona has many advantages. Much better location and weather than Ithaca NY or New Haven CT. Pomona has lower admission standards. Pomona is actually 2 schools combined. Not having to race indoor track is a big advantage because they can get in more training. Not only does the weather help in recruiting but it is perfect for racing while Ivy teams race in bad weather most of the year. That skews times that you are discussing.
Just as an aside, looking at the data for this season, only 22 D1 programs had 5 runners post times under 14:10. I'm not saying that more couldn't have done it, but they didn't for whatever reason. Mines was the only D2 school, and no D3 or NAIA program pulled it off. So only 23 schools out of over 1000 total broke that mark. So Pomona achieving it would have been pretty monumental.
So you are bragging that a D3 team might get 2nd to last or 3rd to last in a D1 conference that has no scholarships... meaning in a completely level playing field, Pomona is nearly last.
And in fairness, Pomona has many advantages. Much better location and weather than Ithaca NY or New Haven CT. Pomona has lower admission standards. Pomona is actually 2 schools combined. Not having to race indoor track is a big advantage because they can get in more training. Not only does the weather help in recruiting but it is perfect for racing while Ivy teams race in bad weather most of the year. That skews times that you are discussing.
I'm not arguing anything. I'm saying that Pomona's 5k times would place it directly in the middle of the Ivy league. With 4 teams beating it, and 4 teams below it. And we all know that the Ivies have their own way of "recruiting" regardless of scholarships. And as someone whose child was recently recruited by the Ivies, Pomona, and the Nescac's, the Ivies were significantly easier to get into than Pomona or Williams. I went into that in another thread. All that is pretty irrelevant as this is simply comparing times. Not comparing Pomona to the Ivies, or D1 in general.
Pomona has a great Men's team but they are having a rough nationals. Maybe Covid related, I don't know. Nobody qualified in the 10K, 1 in the 5K, had the 3rd and 4th fastest 1500 runners in the country but one finished 19th, the other did not finish in qualifying position but advanced on a protest.
Nescac had 4 All Americans in the 10K, none of them named Aiden Ryan, so they are having a pretty good meet so far
But really we should be talking about John Carroll. 1-2 in the 10K, even after Alex Phillip rolled his ankle and took a fall in the middle of the race. They look like favorites to win the team title if Phillip's ankle is good enough to run the 5K.
JCU was impressive in the 10k, but they were also seeded 1,2 and by a wide margin. They basically did what they were supposed to. The 5k is a little tighter with Philip and Ryan pretty far ahead, but the rest of the field all bunched up. Plus 12 of them are coming in with fresh legs, Ryan seems to be recovering from illness, and we don't know how Philip's ankle is. If the top 2 aren't 100%, the rest of the field theoretically all has a shot and I think one of the dark horses will go hard. This could end up being a very fun 5k.
14:10 is the new 14:30. Sorry, carbon fiber springs have really rearranged the “sport”. 14:10 and 29:30 might have been something 5 years ago but not today.