Brian Fay: 10th at Euro XC but 38th at NCAA XC

tfyhvhh wrote:

Top end of Euro XC is obviously very strong (Jakob, Kaya and Gressier). But a very deep year at Euro (like this year) is still surprisingly not very deep compared to NCAA.

Brian Fay (age 23)

He’s a legitimate border on World class runner with very good under distance times with very decent track speed for a distance runner.

Taking as a base his sub four minute mile, I would place his future potential at 3:34/7:45/13:10/27:30. With the proviso that he gets good coaching and that he remains uninjured

But you are right, the NCAA division one cross country championships is extremely deep. In the NCAA division one cross country you have some sub 29 minute 10,000 m runners finishing outside the top 50!

800 Metres 1:50.20 Manchester (GBR) 12 MAY 2018 1020

1500 Metres 3:42.79 Valio Areena, Lapinlahti (FIN) 17 JUL 2021 1069

One Mile 3:58.91 Wimbledon Park Athletics Track, London (GBR) 28 JUL 2021 1088

3000 Metres 8:09.26 Joensuu (FIN) 24 JUL 2019 1002

5000 Metres 13:44.37 Stadion Allmend, Luzern (SUI) 29 JUN 2021 1052

10,000 Metres 28:41.70 Mary Peters Track, Belfast (GBR) 19 DEC 2020 1068

2000 Metres Steeplechase 6:07.68 Tullamore (IRL) 03 JUN 2017 874

3000 Metres Steeplechase 8:29.75 Grosics Gyula Stadion, Tatabánya (HUN) 05 JUN 2021 1123

Indoor

800 Metres 1:50.53 Abbotstown (IRL) 09 FEB 2020 1065

1500 Metres 3:41.73 Stade couvert Jesse Owens, Val-de-Reuil (FRA) 14 FEB 2021 1133

One Mile 4:00.77 AIT International Arena, Athlone (IRL) 12 FEB 2020 1120

3000 Metres 7:53.62 Stade couvert Jesse Owens, Val-de-Reuil (FRA) 07 FEB 2021 111

Brian Fay.

Follow this guy on Instagram.

https://instagram.com/brian.fay?utm_medium=copy_link

tfyhvhh wrote:

Top end of Euro XC is obviously very strong (Jakob, Kaya and Gressier). But a very deep year at Euro (like this year) is still surprisingly not very deep compared to NCAA.

things like that happen, you can't just take 2 races and extrapolate the level of the race from the results of 1 guy. Some people do better in the mud, some people don't, you can have an off day, a really good day, etc...

Just look at that :

Mike foppen, 7:39/13:13 runner, 20th

Jake Eliam Smith 1:00:30 HM, 32nd

Adel Mechaal 5th in the Olympic final, 3:30/7:35, 16th

Narve Giljes Nordas, 13:16, 26th

Mehdi Frère, 2:08 marathon runner, 35th

Carlos Mayo, 27:25 and 1:00:06 HM, 11th

Isaac Kimeli, 27:22, 9th

Abdessamad Oukhelfen, 13:17, 12th

Tom Erling Karbo, 8:26 steeplechase, 52nd

Raess Jonas, 13:15, 17th

Andrew Butchart 7:35/13:06, 23rd

MEZNGI Zerei Kbrom 27:39/1:00:07, 26th

Samuel Fitwi, 1:01 HM, 19th

Yes, XC is still somewhat unpredictable, especially on courses that are not mainly dry grass tracks. One could also argue that the stakes are not as high in the EURO XC and some runners participate without special preparation. Only for a few it is a really important competition and that's rather different to NCAA XC.

For the Irish it was also obviously home turf and they did better than in many years before

Also have to factor in periodization. Most NCAA runners spent all summer building up to peak at XC nationals. Most top end track runners at Euro XC spent all summer racing and are using Euro XC as a fitness tester. Most top end European track runners are at the point in their training in December that collegiate runners would be at in September if that makes sense

NCAA XC is the deepest cross country race in the world, outside of the world championships. If you finish 33rd at NCAA XC, you are probably contending for top 10 at USA cross country. Honestly, the US club xc championships are a deeper race than USA nationals.

yes, good point. Although I think that some Europeans do factor in the XC as a minor peak. Some athletes, like Can or Grovdal seem so consistently better in that Euro XC champs than in the preceding track season over years that I doubt they are just running the XC off base training.

As I wrote elsewhere, there have been several cases like that Irishman or Emma Heckel (u 20 bronze) this year of US college athletes doing well in the Euro XC.

Brian mentioned in a podcast that he was injured and didn't run for the whole of September. It's not surprising that he ran better at Euro xc than NCAA's. Fully fit he would have been top 10 at NCAA's aswell.

Europe doesn't have a good system for people to continue running unless they're the top in their country. As a result you get what you just saw, the top end is still pretty good since it's the best people in those countries, but then a big drop off. The NCAA allows for a bunch of people who aren't even top 10 in their state to have a shot at an NCAA team and keep training for 4 years. As a result you get massive depth.

He ran a great Euro.

Do you guys really think Mantz would beat Jacob?

NCAA vs Europe wrote:

Europe doesn't have a good system for people to continue running unless they're the top in their country. As a result you get what you just saw, the top end is still pretty good since it's the best people in those countries, but then a big drop off. The NCAA allows for a bunch of people who aren't even top 10 in their state to have a shot at an NCAA team and keep training for 4 years. As a result you get massive depth.

In France, National class distance runners, 14:00/29:00 type guys, can often have long careers because they get good backing from their club and sometimes access to part time jobs etc.. I’ve seen this happen time and again in France. Many of those guys, at least when I was running many years ago, had part time jobs with the post office or as sports ground maintenance workers etc.. Others worked in sports shops.

Dominique Chauvelier, who finished third in the European championships marathon over 20 years ago, and who ran 2:11 in the marathon, represented a bank, but I don’t think he ever did any time in the bank.

Others were in the army, police etc. but they spent most of their time training and resting. Italy also had this kind of system, and still has it to some extent as I notice that almost all the top Italian runners represent the police.

NCAA vs Europe wrote:

Europe doesn't have a good system for people to continue running unless they're the top in their country. As a result you get what you just saw, the top end is still pretty good since it's the best people in those countries, but then a big drop off. The NCAA allows for a bunch of people who aren't even top 10 in their state to have a shot at an NCAA team and keep training for 4 years. As a result you get massive depth.

People who are not even top 20 at Euro cross have better pr than Conner mantz

Ghost1 wrote:

Brian Fay.

Follow this guy on Instagram.

https://instagram.com/brian.fay?utm_medium=copy_link

Why should I follow this guy on Instagram?

These are his PBs??? This isn't even close to world class. And 23 isn't 16. He's got two years to cut 10 seconds off his 1500, 45 seconds off his 5000, or 1:30 off his 10k, then you can mention his name in the same breath as world class.

Brian ran a 4 minute mile age 19, made good improvements last year under Feidhlim Kelly and has continued his progress this season at Washington. An autumn injury prevented him from a potential Top 10 at NCAA XC. Well capable of 7.46/47 over 3k indoors, low 13.20 in the summer and challenging for NCAA 3k steeple if he picks this event.

davekkireland wrote:

Brian ran a 4 minute mile age 19, made good improvements last year under Feidhlim Kelly and has continued his progress this season at Washington. An autumn injury prevented him from a potential Top 10 at NCAA XC. Well capable of 7.46/47 over 3k indoors, low 13.20 in the summer and challenging for NCAA 3k steeple if he picks this event.

He certainly was in good company in the last 100m of the Euro.

Hassaous: 7:45 (3000m) - 7th - 3s ahead

Bour: 27:51 (10000m) - 8th - 1s ahead

Kimeli: 27:22 (10000m) - 9th - same time

And beating out Mayo - 11th (27:25 for 10000m) by 6s

Somehow I think that he will improve on his 13:44 PB in the next few weeks

…will he be running 27:20 this summer? I doubt it, but great performance for him.

I don't know Brian Fay at all and this is just an out loud thought. But that course in Tallahassee was basically a track race. A guy who is more a strength runner than a speed one would not do well there compared to guys with more speed. I also don't know the course in Dublin but I'd bet it was nowhere near as fast as Tallahassee so maybe a guy who's more a strength/endurance type would do better comparatively.

HRE wrote:

I don't know Brian Fay at all and this is just an out loud thought. But that course in Tallahassee was basically a track race. A guy who is more a strength runner than a speed one would not do well there compared to guys with more speed. I also don't know the course in Dublin but I'd bet it was nowhere near as fast as Tallahassee so maybe a guy who's more a strength/endurance type would do better comparatively.

according to the videos and comments from runners the Dublin course was rather soft, including a few very muddy spots and had a few steep inclines. It was not an extreme mudfest like some UK courses in former times but also very far from the typical dry "grass tracks" in most US races. So it is only to be expected that not all good track runners would do so well. And Fay also had a very loud supportive home crowd with him.

Great to see Brian Fay continue his late season cross country form into the indoor season with a 13.24 last night in Washington following on from a 3.55 mile a few weeks ago. Well capable of getting close to the World outdoor standard in the 5k this summer and getting his 1500 down to 3.35/3.36 not to mention strong showings in both NCAA Indoor & Outdoor championships.