An Estimation of Jakob's Current Fitness at Various Distances

400 49.2

800 1:44.4

1500 3:26.8

3000 7:23

5000 12:41

10000 26:44

13.1 59:05

Mara 2:12

Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:

400 50

800 1:45

1,500 3:27.5

3,000 7:26

5,000 12:46

10,000 26:50

13.1 59:20

26.2 DNF

Not far off mine:

400: 49.5

800: 1:45.0

1,500: 3:27.5

3,000: 7:23.5

5,000: 12:44.0

10,000: 26:45

13.1: 59:00

26.2: 2:11

I will only comment on the 5000. I think this is a distance he doesn't specifically train for, so there is great potential for improvement if he ever made this his main priority. Even keeping with the same training, but running a few of them within a couple months, I think he goes under or around 12:40 with good conditions. His body does not yet understand what he can tolerate at this distance, which was clear when he was dropped a bit in his 12:48 victory, before coming back for the impressive victory.

El Guerrouj was in 47.75s / 1’43.00 shape at his best, which implies : 2’11.77, 3’25.88, 3’42.42, 7’19.88, 12’47.68, 27’09.11

Obviously he could not hold his range of potential. Take your pick for Ingebrigtsen from 49.8s onward.

I think my 3k estimate was a few seconds too slow. According to Daniels 3:27 fitness is equivalent to 7:23 fitness. There's no doubt in my mind he would've broken 3:28 without running the first turn of the Olympic 1,500 in lane three. And given his distribution of capabilities and training program, his 3k should be right in line with his 1,500.

Interesting we seem to agree he's well under 27 for 10k and 60 for the half. You wouldn't expect most milers to have that capability, especially at such a young age. I chalk that up to his unique training.

And also (related) that he was probably one of the slowest 400 runners in that 1,500m final, yet won convincingly.

I think the 3k and 5k world records aren't out of the question in the next few years, with the 1,500 of course being his most likely target for 2022. If he runs 3:25 on meagre 50-flat speed, you would have to think his aerobic strength would be off the charts, allowing him to cruise 58s for 7.5 laps and 60s for 12.5. I expect him to end up at 3:26.x, but that would still theoretically give him the capability for the 3k/5k WRs.

Would be interesting to get an update on whether his threshold pace has improved in 2021. How much room does he have to keep getting better, considering how hard he has been training for so long?

I read somewhere that Gjert thinks his endurance is maximized. further gains will need to be had through speed. this sentiment is probably specific to the 1500, as I'm sure his specific endurance can be greatly improved for 10k and up, compared with today's level

1500 3:27

1-mile 3:44

3000 7:24

5000 12:44

10000 26:59

half 60:00

marathon 2:08:00

He would break the world record in the steeple.

high school xc coach wrote:

I read somewhere that Gjert thinks his endurance is maximized. further gains will need to be had through speed. this sentiment is probably specific to the 1500, as I'm sure his specific endurance can be greatly improved for 10k and up, compared with today's level

I scoffed at your first sentence, but then the second clarifies it completely. Yes I think he is about as strong as any 1500m runner need be.

Seppo, Jakob IMO is best suited to run the 3,000 of all events. I think he is the one to break the WR there if he wants to. There have been a bunch of great 3,000 performances of late (Wale 7:24i, Katir/Kejlecha 7:26 with massive last Ks of 2:23). If they run one with even pacing, the times will follow.

I have doubts whether Jakob will ever get to the speed to break 3:26.00. Certainly can see him and Tim both running high 3:26/low3:27 in Monaco next year.

where's ventolin when you need him

Jundo Mack wrote:

El Guerrouj was in 47.75s / 1’43.00 shape at his best, which implies : 2’11.77, 3’25.88, 3’42.42, 7’19.88, 12’47.68, 27’09.11

Obviously he could not hold his range of potential. Take your pick for Ingebrigtsen from 49.8s onward.

How do you know EL G was in 47.75 and 1:43.0 at his best!? Based on his 1500m WR? Does this conversion work the same downwards from 1500m whether or not the athlete is clean or using EPO?

I seem to recall a thread on here some years ago where EL G and his coach were asked about his abilities over these shorter distances. Iirc, EL G said '49 and 1:45' while his coach stated that he'd 'run 48 and bits and 1:44 in training'.

I would suggest the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

There is a good reason why Lagat never broke 1:46 in elite competition and why EL G never raced 2 laps on the international circuit.

I'd suggest EL G pretty much ran his absolute best times at 1500 and 1 mile; he certainly had enough attempts and the most sophisticated pacing ( a whole team of Moroccan training partners) for his favoured distance.

Based on his best 1500m shape, I'd suggest he was more like a 49 flat/1:44 mid runner.

id say he could run a 400 in 47.9,as well as a 1.45 800.also about a 22.2 200,and 11.1 100.

Deanouk and eldrick sparing again

jeff tallon wrote:

id say he could run a 400 in 47.9,as well as a 1.45 800.also about a 22.2 200,and 11.1 100.

if jakob could run 11.1/22.2/47.9 he should be running 1:42 at minimum

I won’t comment on the 4 or 8 because his lack of wheels don’t matter much in the distance races.

1500 3:27

5k 12:38

10k 26:40

(If Rupp can run a 26:44 then Jakob can certainly run faster)

Half 58:50

(If all the threshold running he does is true then this would feel like a walk in the park)

Thon 2:06 if paced correctly on fast course

( is based on what his current training is. I think if he trains specifically for a thon he could go 2:03 at a Berlin)

This is all pretty relative and needs more context I think.

Firstly, are we talking about what he is he optimally capable of running on the track of Tokyo, or on a more conventional synthetic track used throughought the international circuit?

Do you recognise that the designer and manufacturer of the Tokyo track stated that the latest Mondo design offered a '1 to 2 % improvement on time compared to previous tracks'?

Even erring on the side of caution, that 3:28.3 (helped by one of the most economical efforts in pace distribution - by Cheruiyot - ever :- 42.0, 55.8, 55.7) is more like a 3:30.3 with the 1% taken into consideration.

It was also quite telling that another poster on here, when responding to the Op's question, mentioned what Ingebrigtsen could do on the Monaco track next year. This is another track which clearly, as the home of WA, has always offered faster times (on average about 2 secs over 1500m compared to bests set on other tracks) for the middle distance events. We now know, as it came straight from the horse's mouth, that tracks can be fine tuned and adjusted

by the manufacturers, to support ever faster times.

So, the question is, what sort of 3:27 do you think he's capable of? I certainly don't believe that a 3:28 run on that Tokyo track with the current super spikes is equivalent to the 3:28's run by El G , Lagat, etc in the late 90's; albeit, they were aided in a different way.

It is ironic that one way of running faster is banned and rightly criticised, while another is supported by World Athletics and hardly mentioned as a factor by die hard fans on message boards like these.

I don't doubt that Ingebrigtsen is a phenomenal athlete and blessed with incredible range, but comparing to the likes of EL G is not doing Jakob any favours and is blatently pointless unless you are talking about an equal playing field.

I would say a 3:28.3 on that track with those spikes (which, don't forget, have been around in one form or another for 3 seasons now) is probably worth nearer to 3:31 on say an average 90's track and spikes. With this in mind, I think Jakob is probably a 3:29 / 3:46 runner in old money terms, but could possibly run 3:27/3:44 based on the technological advances made in recent seasons. I personally think this is being allowed by the governing body to encourage more interest in the sport and as a way of removing many suspect times that remain on the books from the late 90's/early 00's period.

jeff tallon wrote:

id say he could run a 400 in 47.9,as well as a 1.45 800.also about a 22.2 200,and 11.1 100.

I think his 400 is being underestimated (his dearth of speed exaggerated) by many. I think he’d go 48-low on a relay, and maybe crack 49” in the open. That’s not speedy for a 3:27.x-type Olympic 1500 champion, but sets him up to not be embarrassed in a world class 1,000m race.

200 - 23.0

400 - 48.8

800 - 1:44.8 (I had him a smidge faster at these shorter distances on the J.I. vs. K.W. thread like 2 days ago, but if it’s any excuse... “I was sick.”)

1000 - 2:13.9

1500 - 3:27.5

2000 - 4:45.0

3000 - 7:22.5

5000 - 12:43

10000 - 26:44 (Hengelo, cool night, race he’s in contention to win)

HM - 59:20

Marathon - 2:12

Steeplechase - 8:01

Very El G-esque. His best chance at a “World Record” is probably at 2,000 at this point. If he got amazing pacing and competition it might be in play, and it’s no joke of a mark despite seldom being run.

I’d put his chances of ever breaking the WRs at 1500/3k/5k all at 10-15% apiece.

I would suggest El G's 2000m WR is probably the hardest one to beat! Basically a 3:48 mile with another 400m in 55 secs. I don't see Jakob being capable of this, ever.

Deanouk wrote:

I would suggest El G's 2000m WR is probably the hardest one to beat! Basically a 3:48 mile with another 400m in 55 secs. I don't see Jakob being capable of this, ever.

More like a 3:50.0 mile with another 54.79” 391m (56.05 pace). So 3:50 + 56”. 3:33.59 1500 pace. With how relaxed and controlled Jakob can run 3:33.59 at this point, is it really inconceivable he could maintain that for another 500m on a great day?