Tokyo Olympic Predictions Round 127

Please for the love of God do not tell me you actually think that if Jakob doubles he will get 1st and 2nd.

alphas only wrote:

Please for the love of God do not tell me you actually think that if Jakob doubles he will get 1st and 2nd.

No can do muchacho. 12:48 and 3:28 make him a pretty good little athlete.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

alphas only wrote:

Please for the love of God do not tell me you actually think that if Jakob doubles he will get 1st and 2nd.

No can do muchacho. 12:48 and 3:28 make him a pretty good little athlete.

But of course a 12:48 makes a 12:51 Olympic gold somewhat unlikely. The winner will probably barely break 13 if they do. We shall see.

zoomN wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

No can do muchacho. 12:48 and 3:28 make him a pretty good little athlete.

But of course a 12:48 makes a 12:51 Olympic gold somewhat unlikely. The winner will probably barely break 13 if they do. We shall see.

There’s a good chance you’re right, considering championship 5k results historically, but there should be several contenders here who would prefer a fast race—primarily Cheptegei. If the Ugandans can establish ~13:00 pace early on, guys who would prefer a fast last K as opposed to a fast final 100 (Ahmed, likely Jakob, the Ugandans of course) will ensure Bekele’s 12:57 OR is smashed.

JWH wrote:

"Men’s 1500

1. Timothy Cheruiyot 3:29.80

2. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:30.19

3. Josh Kerr 3:30.42

4. Stewart McSweyn 3:30.49

5. Jake Wightman 3:30.81

6. Charles Simotwo 3:30.99

7. Matt Centrowitz 3:31.14

8. Marcin Lewandowski 3:31.35

9. Teddese Lemi 3:32.25

10. Cole Hocker 3:32.48

11. Abel Kipsang 3:33.23

12. Samuel Tefera 3:33.52

400 - Cheruiyot - 54.97

800 - Cheruiyot - 1:52.78 (57.81)

1200 - Cheruiyot - 2:50.19 (57.41)

1500 - Cheruiyot - 3:29.80 (39.61)

Men’s 5,000

1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 12:51.66

2. Jacob Kiplimo 12:51.85

3. Getnet Wale 12:52.27

4. Mohammed Ahmed 12:52.35

5. Mohamed Katir 12:53.14

6. Justyn Knight 12:53.32

7. Joshua Cheptegei 12:54.40

8. Paul Chelimo 12:57.44

9. Grant Fisher 12:57.54

10. Daniel Ebenyo 12:57.88

11. Nicholas Kimeli 12:59.36

12. Nibret Melak 13:03.61

13. Woody Kincaid 13:04.12

14. Jimmy Gressier 13:09.73

15. Birhanu Balew 13:11.96

400 - Chelimo - 63.0

800 - Kiplimo - 2:06.3 (63.6)

1200 - Kiplimo - 3:08.3 (62.0)

1600 - Cheptegei - 4:11.0 (62.7)

2000 - Cheptegei - 5:14.6 (63.6)

2400 - Kiplimo - 6:18.3 (63.7)

2800 - Ingebrigtsen - 7:22.0 (63.7)

3200 - Cheptegei - 8:23.3 (61.3)

3600 - Cheptegei - 9:24.8 (61.5)

4000 - Cheptegei - 10:27.0 (62.2)

4400 - Ahmed - 11:26.8 (59.8)

4800 - Ahmed - 12:24.0 (57.2)

5000 - Ingebrigtsen - 12:51.66 (27.66)"

-----------------------------

I don´t think Jakob will do the double in Tokyo. Especially not after his recent illness.

He must wait until the Worlds next year.

If Jakob can concentrate upon the 1500m and if Timothy goes out fast as you predicts (I tend to agree)

this will be the time Jakob overpowers Timothy. Provided Jakob is back to his very best (as in the 5000m

in DL Florens) he will be able to use Timothy as a pacer and then run away in the final lap. I think Jakob

has been in sub 3:28 shape this year so gold wouldn´t be surprising.

Otherwise: I think you have forgot Olly Hoare?

Centro: He might go to the final or he might not. I think many people here is over overly optimistic about

his chances considering his mediocre performances in INTERNATIONAL races after Rio.

My picks are as follows:

1500m

1. Jakob

2. Timothy

3. Kerr

4. Hoare

5. McSweyn

6. Lewandowski (who has once more showed great shape at the right moment)

7. Wightman

8. Hocker

9. Simotwo

10. Filip

11. Heyward

12. Kipsang

5000m

1. Kiplimo

2. Wale

3. Katir

4. Ahmed

5. Knight

6. Cheptegei

7. Nicolas Kimeli

8. Balew

9. Fisher

10. Paul Chelimo

Really don´t know about the last 5.

Like, Tim is the best 1500 runner in the world no doubt, and could probably do 3:26 with perfect pacing (at 100% fit) where Jakob maybe could go 3:27. But if Tim takes it out hard and Jakob drafts he'll save a lot of energy to the point where he might outkick him. That being said, Tim likes taking the first 400 out in 54-55 which might net him a gap.

I think Wale looks absolutely lethal, and so does Kejelcha. I feel like Kiplimo and Cheptegei have to try and run the kick out of them if they wanna win. In a medium-paced race I favour the ethiopians. Not to mention Barega with his crazy kick from the eth trials. I can't bet against Amos in the 800, but I thought Arop was very impressive considering he let for most of the race. 800 is a tossup, rooting for Dobek in the 800 and Lewandowski in the 1500 (not a pole.)

You may be selling the Kenyan men short in both 5000 and 10000. Their trials were at altitude and will go much quicker. I think one Kenyan with a minor medal in each event.

A lot of people forgotten in the 1500m.

Let them dream and let the track talk.

Florence for Jacob is a story that will probably never repeat.

Passant wrote:

A lot of people forgotten in the 1500m.

Alright pissant, who? Hoare might be one, but he wasn’t forgotten, I’m just slightly concerned that he hasn’t raced in ~7 weeks so I hedged my bets on some kind of injury.

Passant wrote:

Florence for Jacob is a story that will probably never repeat.

There’s no reason to think that except for some bias you clearly must feel.

Very good picks but you seem to discount or miss entirely Rose Mary Almanza who just ran 1:56.28 in Stockholm. Also would sub Jemma Reekie for Raevyn Rogers. I think there is no chance Jakob Ingrebetsen wins gold in the 5000 (doubt he'll even run) -- Kiplimo beats him for sure like he did in the 3000 last Fall.

[quote]John Wesley Harding wrote:

Women’s 800

1. Athing Mu 1:55.24

2. Werkwuha Getachew 1:56.03

3. Raevyn Rogers 1:56.60

4. Jemma Reekie 1:57.00

5. Natoya Goule 1:57.22

6. Keely Hodgkinson 1:57.33

7. Ajee Wilson 1:57.91

8. Halimah Nakaayi 1:58.37

200 - Mu - 27.68

400 - Mu - 57.03 (29.35)

600 - Mu - 1:26.08 (29.05)

800 - Mu - 1:55.24 (29.16)

Good list. I will be looking for online betting platforms and will hit up Vegas I think there's money to be made as we are the experts and not the bookies. It's time they get rinsed. Will be interesting to see if Cheptegai can return to WR form but he has not shown that indication yet. He got the bag and dipped. Could the doped up Mo Katir pull out a shock victory at 5000? We'll see i think he will have favorable odds and he's still a bit under the radar.

Sisson crushed Schweizer in the Trials and will again in Tokyo. There is no way a fresh Sisson loses to Schweizer after she does two 5000 races. I think by the end of her career Schweizer will have the American Record, breaking Sisson's record (after Sisson breaks Huddle's record), but right now is Sisson's time. I can see Sisson matching Huddle's Rio performance by cracking the top-6 in Tokyo.

Why are you assuming Cheruiyot will run? Has there been any announcement?

JWH you have way overrated the Florence performance. It was a good time and he ran a smart race. He was running against the 5th or 6th best Ethiopian 5k runner who was on just 2-3 days rest from an all-out 10,000. The field is somewhat watered down with no Kejelcha or Barega but Wale is better that Gebrhiwet by a lot, the Ethiopian second-placer is good as well, the top 2 Kenyans will be strong, the two Ugandans you know are legit and even the Canadians who he beat in Florence will be raring to go. Katirs confidence is growing and he’s fresh off outkicking Jakob. If Jakob opts for the double I’d expect 4th place at best and very possibly 6th or 7th. I doubt he does though.

Also Simiyu runs 12:55 just losing to Kiplimo after 13:0x at altitude and doesn’t even make the final? Yes he’s somewhat green but 1st and 2nd in the last 2 Kenyan trials, some XC/road success, guy can flat-out run…

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Also Simiyu runs 12:55 just losing to Kiplimo after 13:0x at altitude and doesn’t even make the final? Yes he’s somewhat green but 1st and 2nd in the last 2 Kenyan trials, some XC/road success, guy can flat-out run…

Ebenyo is Simiyu. Tenth