rekrunner wrote:
If you don't care about Hungarian tables, favoring your own method, that certainly drives your thinking. Similarly 7:11 and 7:14 come from tables, so it is consistent that you would reject them too. These are theoretical values from a model, so any conclusions must keep that in mind. No one said or insinuated it was plausible (besides Armstronglivs when building a strawman). I said that I wouldn't rule out a world record (sub-7:20.67).
Using your approach of comparing to other fastest performances, it makes sense to dig a little deeper to see what shape the athletes were in when achieving their 3000m times, and other factors, like incentives, pacing, weather, number of opportunities, etc. and compare these results to the conditions of 5000m and 10000m.
I think that a couple of things have happened recently which have really impacted the effectiveness of these tables - especially in distance running, and we all know what they are - pacing lights and shoes. We also know that the impact of both of these innovations ramps up dramatically the longer distance you run and this makes sense right?
The benefit of even pacing is astronomical to running efficiency - and we saw this perfectly demonstrated by Cheptegei in both his WR's as he barely fluctuated in pace throughout almost all of his 37.5 laps. The benefit of spike innovation with respect to muscular fatigue reduction by way of impact cushioning not at the expense of weight and force efficiency is also clearly more pronounced the longer a track event is.
It's fair to draw the conclusion that the length of event matters right? The 800m has been barely effected - wavelight kind of irrelevant when you are basically running at 93% of your max for 400m and then trying to simply hold on for another 400m and the real benefit for 800m runners in the new tech spikes is more likely seen with training and the ability to train faster and recover better than it is actually during a race. The 1500m a little more impact than the 8 but nowhere near as much as the 5000m so the question then becomes at what distance do we really start to see the impact of wavelight and spikes in terms of in race effects.
Maybe the 3000m isn't at that threshold. I mean it is quantifiably closer to the mile than it is to the 5000m. Maybe pacing lights and spikes just aren't going to generate the same jump in performance we have seen obviously in the 5 and 10'000m events - I don't know? Again, I don't think JC was at his best the other night but I have to admit seeing him try the tempo and then get absolutely destroyed by the shadow of Komen didn't give me much confidence he can do this. I think for me it just reinforced the quality and insanity of Komens time because I just don't think even pacing and slightly less fatigue in training or in race thanks to footwear is going to cut it.
Hey either way I'm confused by some of the numbers. Even a 7.15 3000m is "equivalent" to 12.26 and 25.52 - so I don't know how anyone arrived at such numbers. I understand someone probably used a Purdy/Cameron/Riegel/V02max predictor but they are simply mathematical models devoid of any ability to calculate the nuances and plethora of variables involved in actual running so I would never take them seriously. Ever.
As for the history of this event and shape/incentive of athletes going after the WR, when you are talking about guys like El G, Morceli, Geb, Bekele all in their primes who clearly committed to running fast (because when you start running sub 7.27 you aren't simply sitting and kicking for a golden four/league win) - I very much doubt they didn't have serious aspirations with breaking this record. El Guerrojou for sure wanted it. If you have ever seen that race with him running 7.23, it's the first time I ever saw him truly suffer out there in the final 300m and probably the only race I ever saw him absolutely exhausted at the finish. He wanted it. Morceli was of course the previous record holder and was done by the time Komen ramped things up - the point being I doubt Morceli didn't try and run his maximum considering he was setting the WR at the time. Maybe chasing 7.20 he could have run 7.23 high/7.24 low - he wasn't good enough over 5000m to be better than that. Geb - not fast enough over the mile, pure and simple as he was a 3.50 miler at best and the same with Bekele. I think anyone in that 7.25 club got there being in shape and going for it - they just couldn't get close.