Vanessa Fraser 2.0

I thought Jerry was working with Houlihan on the 5k. If Shelby does the 5k, that might bump Fraser. It might not be her favorite but there is less competition in the 10k in my opinion. She might have more of a shot there.

as someone with haglund's and hoping to get tenex in the next couple of years she has been a real inspiration. Hope she can nab an oly team spot! Your overview and predictions are good!

Vanessa is extremely analytical so her choices of Tenex and the doctor to perform Tenex were not snap decisions. You (shoesssss) might consider DM'ing Vanessa to learn more about what she went through when she had her procedures done last year in Phoenix. Actually, you can learn a lot just by going through Vanessa's IG posts dating back to March 2020 when she made her decision to have the procedures.

As for who's running what at the Trials, Shelby may very well be targeting the 5k. I was under the impression she has been training primarily for a (really) fast 5k this spring after which she would squeeze down the training pace for a run at the 1500 at the Trials, then Olympics, where she would be the 3rd fastest returner from Doha presuming Hassan does the 5k/10k double as she has alluded to in past interviews. However, if Shelby is targeting the 5k then, yes, she becomes the Trials and takes the spot from Vanessa.

Vanessa has been forced to take a lot of down time over the past 12 months --- first for surgery recovery then for her recent stress reaction -- so her main Trials competitors are thousands of miles of training ahead of her. Everything has to go perfect over the next 2 1/2 months for Vanessa to make Tokyo in whatever event she chooses.

But, big fan of anyone who was once a non-scholarship college walk-on who now is a legitimate Olympic hopeful.

Not a walk-on with a 16:59 5k and 5th at nationals.

I watched her run in high school. She always lacked a kick. Nikki Hiltz beat her in every race. There's a local six mile race in Santa Cruz, the Wharf to Wharf, and she always excelled at the longer distances. I think she'll eventually do great in the marathon. She should do the 10K this year. Her kick will betray her in the 5K.

old guy 75 wrote:

I watched her run in high school. She always lacked a kick. Nikki Hiltz beat her in every race. There's a local six mile race in Santa Cruz, the Wharf to Wharf, and she always excelled at the longer distances. I think she'll eventually do great in the marathon. She should do the 10K this year. Her kick will betray her in the 5K.

Agreed with this. Per others on the thread and my own reading/video-watching of BTC in the last year would lend me to be near certain Shelby is going for the 5k. You need a really strong kick now -a-days in the 5k and I'm not sure Vanessa or Gwen have it (I believe Gwen is going for the 5k as well). I do think Vanessa could be stronger than Gwen in the 10k, and could get possibly grab that 3rd spot on the team if everything goes perfectly. Right now I think it's Marielle, Emily, Gwen, and possibly Fraser for the 10k. Emily is hit or miss with injury, Hall is strong but I haven't seen any great improvement in her times, and I think Vanessa should be able to out run Gwen. Granted, Sisson, D'Amato, and others will be contending in the 10k, but it's more possibly there IMO than it is in the 5k.

Schweizer is probably best 10k runner on the team.

No way Jose wrote:

Schweizer is probably best 10k runner on the team.

I would agree except for the fact that she got beat by her teammate, Cranny

I guess that means Schweizer is the best 3k runner on the team because she beat Houlihan and set the American record. But wait, she lost to 2 women this year including Quigley in Feb when she lost to Cranny in the 10k. So is Quigley now better than Houlihan?

Agree that, to date, Vanessa lacks a quality finish necessary to outkick someone for a 2nd or 3rd spot on the team.

However, that was Vanessa 1.0. This thread is titled VF 2.0 for a reason.

Now that she feels confident she is over her Haglunds problems (dating back to early 2017) and has taken the final step to get back training in track spikes, let's see how much Vanessa improves when she (presumably) races again sometime in May.

As for the 10k being less competitive than the 5k, not sure about that.

After seeing Sisson in her recent 5k win, she should be the clear favorite in the 10k.

After that, I believe spots two and three will be taken by the track specialists; i.e. Infeld, (Marielle) Hall, Jorgensen, Schneider, Monson along with 5k gals Fraser, Cranny, Schweizer who would run if they miss out on the 5k team.

Now, add to that group Weini Kelati -- if she gets her US citizenship in time -- and we have a 10k field as good as any distance field at the Trials.

There's even Betsy Saina -- now a US citizen who finished 5th at the Rio Olympics in the 10k for Kenya -- who hasn't run a track race in years but could be the biggest wildcard of all.

I have a slight lean towards Vanessa having a better chance at the 10k but only if she can crank out a a really fast 5k or 10k next month. Even so, I still believe she runs the 5k at the Trials as her primary focus and would only run the 10k if she gets nosed out for Tokyo 5k but still believes she something left for one more race.

Why would Sisson be the clear favorite? Cranny & Schweizer both have better 5000 PRs and 10000 PRs than her.

migrant wrote:

I guess that means Schweizer is the best 3k runner on the team because she beat Houlihan and set the American record. But wait, she lost to 2 women this year including Quigley in Feb when she lost to Cranny in the 10k. So is Quigley now better than Houlihan?

Don't be obtuse. Cranny beat Schweizer just last month in the 10k. It's not unreasonable to assume that Cranny is slightly better than Schweizer at the moment. Now, at the trials? Who knows.

Stated Sisson is the clear favorite given she will only run the 10k and has a sub-31 pr just a few seconds behind Elise & Karissa. If the latter two run the 10k they will be doubling back from the 5k thus not having fresh legs for a finishing kick. At least that's what my tea leaves are reading.

If I'm wrong -- if all three run the 10k fresh -- well, there's your Olympic Team (in which case Vanessa has a much better chance in the 5k) -- unless Kelati and/or Saina show up -- in which case we all will be tearing up our brackets.

Brad, Chet & the Boys wrote:

Bower Man II wrote:

You (shoesssss) might consider DM'ing Vanessa .

I have definitely consider DM'ing Vanessa ;)

LOL

Jorgensen would need to drop a decent amount of time to make the team. Unless I see a vast improvement I don’t have her in the running for the team. She can’t go to altitude camp either so everyone else will have a slight advantage over her.

Sorta gonna bank money Fraser does not make the Olympic team.

Are you forgetting Sara Hall? I think she's a lock for a 10k spot. Also have to consider Kellyn Taylor and Steph Bruce.

Not forgetting the road runners . . . just discounting them as they likely will not have the closing speed over the last kilo to keep pace with the track specialists.

Even D'Amato with her 15:04/5k I doubt would keep up with Sisson, Schneider, Cranny, Schweizer, Fraser, Hall, Infeld, and possibly Monson -- and Keira is my pick for the "best of the rest" roadies.