Official Gate River 15K- March 20th - "I'm a Excitable Runner Predication Contest"

an excitable runner

The elite wave is too good to be true, most likely people will scratch before next week, but right now this is looking like a great preview for the Olympic trails 10k

That entry list is insane. There are a lot of what appear to be 'local elites' in the elite group, so I tried to pick out the types of guys that make up elite fields from races all across the country, here is my elite elite list, which there is still 37 guys. This is going to be a crazy race. In a normal year 10th place is around 45 flat, I think nearly all of these runners could run around 45 flat or better, some waaaaay under 45, will the AR go down? I believe it's a high 42 minutes. I'm not as familiar with the women's fields so I won't attempt that one:

Colin Bennie

Hillary Bor

Reid Buchanan

Sam Chelanga

Will Cross

Kiya Dandena

Chris Derrick

Kirubel Erassa

Scott Fauble

Mason Ferlic

Reed Fischer

Sydney Gidabuday

Wilkersen Given

Jonas Hampton

Nick Hauger

Marty Hehir

Stanley Kebenei

Shadrack Kipchirchir

Frank Lara

Kevin Lewis

Rory Linkletter

Matt Llano

Dylan Marx

Matt McClintock

Matt McDonald

Hassan Mead

Alex Monroe

Nico Montanez

Dhruvil Patel

John Raneri

Joel Reichow

Ryan Root

Parker Stinson

Ben True

Sid Vaughn

Clayton Young

Futsum Zienasellassie

You missed Galen Rupp

Also missed the entire elite female field.

Over Deliver wrote:

Also missed the entire elite female field.

You can't read, I don't know the women's field enough to know which ones are remotely relevant. I narrowed the men's field down from like 100 men down to the 37 which will make up at least the top 20 finishers. And Galen Rupp isn't a confirmed entry, is he? I thought he had just shown interest. His name wasn't on the list.

The Original Poster wrote:

You missed Galen Rupp

He is in the list, I'm surprised I missed him. I'm sure there are a couple other relevant people I missed. Either way, stacked field. Top 10 might require sub 44. With Rupp and Shadrack and True going after it we may see a sub 43.

Alex Monroe >>> Galen Rupp

Mods,

Could you please correct my spelling errors in the thread title. Should read:

Official Gate River 15K- March 20th - "I'm an Excitable Runner Prediction Contest"

I've been operating on limited sleep the last few days worrying about the upcoming anniversary of the two-week bend the curve to the on-going one-year lockdown.

Thanks for your attention in this matter,

Freedom Loving Runner who is trying to be better grammarian

I predict a minimum of 30 athletes that will pick up Covid while in Florida. This race is stupid this year.

It's fear mongers like yourself that make life really enjoyable.

That list is insane wrote:

Over Deliver wrote:

Also missed the entire elite female field.

You can't read, I don't know the women's field enough to know which ones are remotely relevant. I narrowed the men's field down from like 100 men down to the 37 which will make up at least the top 20 finishers. And Galen Rupp isn't a confirmed entry, is he? I thought he had just shown interest. His name wasn't on the list.

I will do the women. Just give me four hours to get it down to 37 that will encompass all the top 20.

Aussiestatman wrote:

That list is insane wrote:

You can't read, I don't know the women's field enough to know which ones are remotely relevant. I narrowed the men's field down from like 100 men down to the 37 which will make up at least the top 20 finishers. And Galen Rupp isn't a confirmed entry, is he? I thought he had just shown interest. His name wasn't on the list.

I will do the women. Just give me four hours to get it down to 37 that will encompass all the top 20.

I have 15 so far. Tomorrow I will add another 22.

Sara hall

Keira D’Amato

Emily Sisson

Rachel Schneider

Jordan Hasay

Lindsay Flanagan

Sally Kipyego

Diane Nukuri

Molly Seidel

Laura Thweatt

Bria Wetsch

Alexis Zeis

Steph Bruce

Jen Bergman

Emma Bates

I am guessing the NR will be under threat if conditions suit.

Hehir places 3rd or 4th

Rupp wins

TMADDDHASFNE wrote:

It's fear mongers like yourself that make life really enjoyable.

My new favorite poster on Letsrun, thanks for the common sense mate!

Florida loves Corona wrote:

I predict a minimum of 30 athletes that will pick up Covid while in Florida. This race is stupid this year.

You nailed it.

Florida numbers are sky rocketing and there are Olympians and potential Olympians in this field. A sickness that last a few weeks down will end their season at this point.

If everyone lived in the delusional state of unreasonable fear like your ilk Columbus would have never set sail on Niña, the Pinta, and the Santa Maria looking for that big White Whale.

Stay in your basement friend and live your miserbale life on your treadmill of dread.

Covid is real wrote:

Florida loves Corona wrote:

I predict a minimum of 30 athletes that will pick up Covid while in Florida. This race is stupid this year.

You nailed it.

Florida numbers are sky rocketing and there are Olympians and potential Olympians in this field. A sickness that last a few weeks down will end their season at this point.

Thank you. It has been tough as I own a condo in Naples. As a snowbird it is where my wife and I normally spend our Winters. This year we were down there for 4 days before we drove home. People in Florida are afraid. I’ve never seen a group of people who are so fearful. They are afraid to wear a mask. Since we left there have been 17 Covid deaths in our complex. I have no idea how many positives. I refuse to be fearful of a mask.

Covid is real wrote:

Florida loves Corona wrote:

I predict a minimum of 30 athletes that will pick up Covid while in Florida. This race is stupid this year.

You nailed it.

Florida numbers are sky rocketing and there are Olympians and potential Olympians in this field. A sickness that last a few weeks down will end their season at this point.

Florida has had 91k cases per 1 million population. The U.S. average is 90k per 1 million population, so Florida is pretty much identical to the national average. This is a little fewer than one case per 10 people over the past 12 months. So 10% chance a random person had it in 12 months. We're talking one weekend here, with these racers showing up to run down the middle of a street and then back into their hotel room. Give me a break, there aren't going to be 30 elite runners getting covid. And Florida isn't spiking right now, they've been decreasing like everyone else. They were at 15,900 cases per day January 12th and are now down under 5,000 per day and continuing to drop. I'd be surprised if more than 1 of the 200 'elite' runners gets covid after race weekend, which is the same odds as any other person in the country.

And even if an elite runner did get it, they're going to be fine. There were runners at The Marathon Project who had covid at some point in the many months before the race and they still ran as fast as normal.