Mo Farah to Joshua Cheptegei: "the Olympics is not just a time trial, is it?”

Dairyland wrote:

if somebody like Gebriwhet tries to push the pace at 8k or so.

I’m nitpicking here, but that’s never been Gebrhiwet’s M.O. In my recollection he always waits until the final lap, except that time in 2019 when he miscounted laps. Also, while his 5k credentials are undeniable, I doubt he’ll factor in he ‘21 10k medals. In 2019 Kipruto dropped him in Stockholm and he was dropped at the WCs as well, finishing 9th, 23 seconds behind Cheptegei. He’s raced twice since then, a 61:46 half (7th) in ‘19 and a 29:49 road 10k (win) in ‘20.

I love how people on this thread talk about Cheptegei going out at 26:30 pace like that isn't really 26:55 pace. The shoes are worth around a second per lap which makes Cheptegei a 26:35 runner in old money. In the new shoes, peak Farah can stick with a 26:30 pace. Will he be peak? No. He's 38, so he's going to need a lot of luck.

On his side, everyone know Cheptegei is the man to beat and prefers a quick, metronomic pace. Kipruto and Kiplimo will want it to come down to a kick where both have a shot of beating Cheptegei. Therefore, they won't help him maintain a brutal pace. This gives Farah a chance, not a big one, but a possibility of a medal.

One more thing: it's amazing that Farah is even in the conversation here. He's competing against the best in the world at 38. That's crazy. He started out racing Haile G and Bekele, and occasionally Kipchoge. Now he's racing Cheptegei and Kiplimo. This guy connects generations of great runners. That's before we get onto his record which is stellar, even if he isn't the GOAT. He deserves a bit more respect than he gets on these boards

runderun wrote: Kipruto and Kiplimo will want it to come down to a kick where both have a shot of beating Cheptegei.

Kiplimo? Perhaps, though Kiplimo’s famous sprint victories were both in very fast races, and one can imagine he and Cheptegei working together toward a Ugandan 1-2. Kipruto won’t want it to come down to a kick as that doesn’t suit his strengths whatsoever.

runderun wrote:

One more thing: it's amazing that Farah is even in the conversation here. He's competing against the best in the world at 38. That's crazy. He started out racing Haile G and Bekele, and occasionally Kipchoge. Now he's racing Cheptegei and Kiplimo. This guy connects generations of great runners. That's before we get onto his record which is stellar, even if he isn't the GOAT. He deserves a bit more respect than he gets on these boards

I think he deserves Makhloufi-like “respect,” personally.

At least Makhloufi is a Chad.

I do not think that Kipruto will want anything to do with Cheptegei in a sprint.

The only guys that have a reasonable shot against Cheptegei in a 27:00+ type race with a fast last 400-800 are Kejelcha, Kiplimo, and Farah. Farah would love for it to come down to a kick, but I don't think they'll play into his hand. Cheptegei outkicked Kejelcha pretty convincingly in Doha and put up an all-time finish. Kiplimo is definitely a wild card, but given his HM success, I think he will be there at the end regardless of whether the pace is fast or slow.

I'm not very knowledgeable about professional running, but why doesn't Cheptegi run it as a time trial close to his world record pace? It's a guaranteed gold medal?

Yes, Mo has his gold medals and earned them, but I think there's a new era of championship racing that won't be sit and kick. There are just too many fast runners that can push the pace hard and see who can hang.

The new elite don't just want to win -- they want to win fast, which is a huge difference from the past two decades. Mo better prepare for fast races and fast times. The final 500 meters won't be enough anymore...

elitehobbyjogger wrote:

I'm not very knowledgeable about professional running, but why doesn't Cheptegi run it as a time trial close to his world record pace? It's a guaranteed gold medal?

It’s extremely hard to do in an unpaced race where weather conditions will presumably be less than ideal. If he runs 26-twenty something from the front (as hard as he can), he sets himself up to be shadowed and out-kicked (or more accurately, overcome by a fresher, more composed man on the day) by Kiplimo (7:26/12:48/57:37), Kipruto (26:24 on the roads) or even Kandie (57:32, for Christ’s sake). That’s the era we’re living in. I think what Cheptegei will want is to share the pacing with his countryman at 26:40-26:50 pace for 5 miles and then may the best man win, and I think Kiplimo might be agreeable to that. If the Kenyans want to set a similarly quick pace from the front, even better for the Ugandans.

That will be within the capability of a lot of the field. It's basically 27:00-27:10 pace in the pre-Dragonfly era. If Cheptegei and Kiplimo want to run the finish out of the kickers, they'll need a much more aggressive pace.

I also wouldn't bet on Kiplimo playing ball. Running is an individual sport, he'll want that gold. We've seen loads of times that the Kenyans and Ethiopians never worked together for long enough in either the 5 or 10

You could also say it's like 27:45-50 pace on cinder tracks in the 60's

Just move on dude

He's been in 3:28.8 shape in the past. If he's even in 3:31 shape, he'd be faster at the 1500m than any of his competitors, so his old tactics would win again unless these guys can work together to go sub 26:40 at the very least. Cheptegei is not just a time trialer anyway. He has a pretty solid kick.

I'm not slating people for using the shoes. Just saying that 26:40 in the new shoes is not the brutal pace it would have seemed four years ago. In the unlikely event that Farah is in the same shape he was in 2016, he could live with a 26:40 pace in the new shoes. I don't think he'll win but I think he could well PR this year and it will be all down to the shoes

I did a spreadsheet on this, but since 2001, Gold in the 10k for oly/wc has required a 27:05 with a 54.80 second last lap on average.

elitehobbyjogger wrote:

I'm not very knowledgeable about professional running, but why doesn't Cheptegi run it as a time trial close to his world record pace? It's a guaranteed gold medal?

Even Kamworor didn't try it. He waited far too long and couldn't hold Farah off over the last 4-5 laps although he did put pressure on him. And there we're talking about someone who crushed Mo on the road even after falling over at the start and no doubt would have crushed him at XC too.

DC Wonk wrote:

Yes, Mo has his gold medals and earned them, but I think there's a new era of championship racing that won't be sit and kick. There are just too many fast runners that can push the pace hard and see who can hang.

The new elite don't just want to win -- they want to win fast, which is a huge difference from the past two decades. Mo better prepare for fast races and fast times. The final 500 meters won't be enough anymore...

What are you basing this on? Have you seen this in any Olympics or World Championships? The Olympics are a big deal and psychology changes when you're on the world stage. People don't want to come in 4th or 5th by pushing the pace. Everybody wants to win and give themselves the best chance

Also I agree that Mo Farah is certainly worthy of consideration for the goat of middle distance running. Or 5K 10K running. People put too much emphasis on world records and not on gold medal finishes. He dominated the sport for a decade on Parallel with anyone else, and maybe better

Also he has great range and has been a fun upbeat exciting charismatic guy for the sport.

MidFootStriker wrote:

DC Wonk wrote:

Yes, Mo has his gold medals and earned them, but I think there's a new era of championship racing that won't be sit and kick. There are just too many fast runners that can push the pace hard and see who can hang.

What are you basing this on? Have you seen this in any Olympics or World Championships? The Olympics are a big deal and psychology changes when you're on the world stage. People don't want to come in 4th or 5th by pushing the pace. Everybody wants to win and give themselves the best chance.

He might be basing it off the most recent world championships, where Cheptegei and Kipruto switched off leads for 24 laps or so and Cheptegei ran 26:48 with a 55 second last lap.

With a bunch of HM stars coming down to the 10,000 for Tokyo rather than going up to the Marathon (Kamworor, Kandie, Kiplimo), it seems even more likely Tokyo will be fast than it was in Doha.

I predict that between Cheptegei, Kejelcha, Kiplimo, Kipruto, and Kandie, the race will go out aggressively around 26:45 pace and be strung out by 1k. Then that whole group will drop the hammer for the last 2-3k, final lap will be under 55, and the finishing time will be around 26:28 (new Olympic record, by a lot)

Also Sir Doped Farah is gonna have to break is 1500 PR in the last few laps to have a single chance in hell at a medal

bugattiaron wrote:

Also Sir Doped Farah is gonna have to break is 1500 PR in the last few laps to have a single chance in hell at a medal

lol i guess i hope they run 3:27 for the final 1500. no idea what point you thought you were making.