Sub 3 hour marathon on 30 mpw plausability

The one and only requirement of being a runner is that you have time to run, which you've already stated you don't have. Rather than aiming for an unrealistically good tie off just 30MPW, why not focus on freeing up time to run more?

Agreed that it's possible, though perhaps not super likely. I would note that the question asked about 30 mpw, which means we could go higher in some weeks, and lower in others. I think that point of nuance is the key:

Imagine a 14-day calendar:

M - 4 miles easy, 5 x 200 @ 5k pace w/ 100 m jog rest

T - Off

W - 7 mile tempo; 6:30 pace-ish

R - Off

F - 4 miles easy, including 8 x 15-second max hills

S - Long run every other week, building to 22 miles @ 95% of goal pace (7:15-ish per mile)

U - Off

M - 4 miles easy, plus 5 x 200 @ 5k pace w/ 100 m jog rest

T - off

W -7 mile Fartlek (including 15 x 1 minute on/off, with the on segments at 10k pace)

R - off

F- 4 miles easy, including 8 x 15-second max hills

S - 9 miles at goal pace

U - off

Since your mileage is so low, I think you'd need some quality in every single run to have a shot at it.

That schedule peaks at 37 miles in its biggest week and then stays consistently at 25 mpw on the down weeks. If you build over twelve weeks, peaking at three weeks before your race with your 22-mile run, then you could do two 25-mile weeks in your taper, and that should get you right around your 30 mpw goal.

I wouldn't guarantee a sub-3 on that program, but I think you'd be close.

If 6:45 pace for 7 miles feels hard, no way will it feel sustainable for 19 more miles.

You obviously have running talent, but this seems like a recipe for injury and or a miserable experience.

jackiemoon wrote:

I do like to train, I'm a 2nd year in a phd program so I only have so much time. And before getting to this program I was still recovering from injury.

I think you should peak for the 10 mile or half distance right now and move up to the marathon after completing your phd. Either that, or you're going to need to find a way to get the mileage, even if it means running when you should be sleeping.

Sub 3hr is super easy for someone of your talent level. Should not be that hard to achieve.

I should clarify, I admire your desire to balance your program with running a marathon, but OP, think of it this way: you could half-ass your PhD probably, if you are intelligent enough, same as how a 15:5X 5k runner probably has enough latent ability to run 2:59 for a marathon off 20-30 miles per week.

If you are doing this just to say you ran sub 3, when you are capable of so much better, what's the point, I guess? Especially when in all likelihood, worst case scenario you are injured, best case you finish, possibly break 3, then you can't walk down the stairs for like a week or two without grimacing.

Not trying to rain on your parade. I did a trail 50k off 45mpw for like 10 weeks. I finished, I also ended up with an IT band injury that I dealt with for 4 months. Do I regret doing it? Not really. Do I regret not putting in the work? Absolutely.

Breaking 3 is a great milestone regardless of age or gender. But it's not like a 5k. It requires time to do it right, and without injury.

It sounds like you've got some speed, but without regular longer runs of 15 miles and over, including tempo runs and/or marathon paced runs at that distance, you may struggle with endurance over 42km! I'd also worry about the risk of injury, both from doing isolated long runs in training and also from the race itself. If you look up marathon injuries, they're highly correlated to miles run per week.

This is my story exactly--4:25 mile and 9:30 2-mile in high school, but injured almost all of college. I put in 20-35 miles a week starting almost as soon as I graduated in June and ran 3:07 in December at Cal International, which is a very fast course. It took me two years of harder training (e.g. 40 miles a week) to get under 3:00 for the marathon, though, with a PB of 2:47 another year after that.

A lot will depend on the course and the day (definitely a factor for me). But if I had to bet, I would bet on a time between 3:00 and 3:10 (e.g. around 3:05).

I agree with one prior post: a 20 mile run at marathon pace will totally wreck you and you should not do it. You might consider looking at the Hansons marathon plan to see how to stack workouts so that you get lots of marathon pace work, but with enough time for recovery.

It can be done if you have a VO2max of 65+ (which you probably do as a former 15 minute 5k person) and you haven't turned into a big fatso.

I ran 2:34 last year off running 4 X per week. I just focused on a good quality long run once a week and one other decent workout. I have a history of injuries so big mileage doesn't work for me and I'm also short of time with two young kids. I didn't race for 10 years prior to last year but ran 2-3 times per week for fitness during that period. I did about a year of more serious training 4x per week and two other races before the marathon. My PR for the half was 66:24 13 years ago so I was decent standard when running properly. Three hours is definitely possible but you need to do some long runs I would say.

Not trying to troll, but dude, if you're getting a PhD and cant find more than 3-4 hours a week to train, you suck at time management. But I find most PhD students suck at time management.

I think if you could get your mileage in the 30-40 range, you will have a more pleasant race. I ran my first marathon in 3:15 off 30-40 miles per week, and I'm a woman and had less than 1 year of running experience at that point.

It's just hard to fathom you doing 16-20 mile long runs and then running only 10-14 miles on all the other days combined.

Honestly, I think if I REALLY had to do it on 30 miles a week, I'd run 2-3 times a week. Here would be my suggested training plan:

- Sat/Sun long run working towards 16-20 miles on sunday, every other week easy pace and every other week throwing in some marathon pace stuff (Working towards 18 miles with 12-14 at marathon pace).

- second medium long run on Wednesdays with some threshold work

- third shorter regular run maybe with some strides if you can.

OP here was my thread chronicling my similar sub-3 attempt to yours:

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9298896

You might find yourself catch the running bug and slowly, but surely, wanting to add to what you're doing (without getting hurt/overcommitting time-wise). I did. I ran 2:56:52 the following fall after upping to 40-45mpw. I was up to 50-55mpw the winter/spring of 2019-20, but unfortunately never got to chase after the 1:19:xx, 2:50:xx times I wanted to.

If you had 6 months, I’d say it’d be very likely to do it. Do you have any significant race times since high school ? E.g. you trained for 2 months a broke 18 for a 5k on the roads... if you done something like this in the last 1-3 years I’d say you’ve got a good chance to break 3 (as long as you haven’t gained a bunch of weight).

I ran 2:53 off of ~35 miles a week. My background: In high school, I ran mid 18s for 5k for XC but was always injured and never put together a good stretch of training/never improved. During a PhD program, I got back into running for a couple years. After ~6-7 months I ran a 36:xx road 10k off of 30 miles a week. Started doing 40-50 per week & did a miler training block, peaking with a 4:47 1600m time trial in November... took a week off, signed up for a February marathon, did a few weeks of base/doubles (~60/wk), ran a 21:00 6k XC , got busy and cut my training way back during December-January, and went out way too fast (I was ~1:18:xx at the half, slowing at mile 15, and walk-jogging by mile 18) on a pancake flat course on a warm & muggy day. The only big workout I remember doing is a 2h30min run that included something like 4-5 sets of 15min@mp w/5min steady for recovery.

My advice (in addition to what you’ve already gotten:

1. Do single leg squats (just body weight, do 1 or 2 sets until failure) 3 days a week. If you’re not doing proper marathon mileage, your quads will be shot by mile twenty and you’ll have a painful & exhausting hobble to the finish.

2. Take hydration seriously. Practice drinking on a few training runs. During the race, don’t hesitate to walk for a 5 seconds so you can drink to the whole cup... do it at each station.

The only so much time will only get you so far with an excuse. As there are plenty, plenty other people in the same boat and or busier with life, jobs, multiple kids, single mom/dad, etc.

Do I think you can do it with only 30mpw, I do yes. Seems you have the natural ability already there. It is the medium to long runs that will need to be done. Back to backs to build up a good base to take the pain.

It's been done but that doesn't mean you can...or that you can't. There was a guy in New England in the '40s and '50s who had two full time jobs. Sunday was the only day he had time to run so he did a 20 mile run. That was his training and he got to around 2:40. I have a friend who ran 2:29 at altitude off of one 20 mile run a week with an occasional second run of 10 miles. But with 120 mile weeks he did 2:15.

I'm just here to add some more anecdotal evidence. At age 38, ~190 pounds, I ran 3:04 off of about 35 mpw. My half going into it was 1:26.

I didn't specifically train to run that marathon, and didn't run to break 3 hours. I was sort of coerced into it by some friends and figured since I was in as good as shape as I had ever been in, why not?

My training was basically 4 runs per week, with a weekly long run of 25k at first, then 30k twice. In those runs, the only goal was to gradually speed up every 5k. For the final 30k run, I think my first 5k was like 24 flat, with the final being around 21:30.

My recollection of the race was hitting half in about 1:31, which at the time felt pretty easy, and I believe I ran same pace up to 20 miles or so, at which point I started losing time as my hamstrings were on the verge of cramping. Never had an energy issue.

Oh, my lifetime 5k PR is only 18:50. I guess I skew very drastically to slow-twitch composition.

Totally agree with the sentiments of this post. I have seen several athletes (myself included) thrive with just two days of quality running per week and cross training on the days in between.

The key is to progressively build up your two quality days. I like to actually have the volume and intensity build simultaneously, dictated by your own fitness. I think we all underestimate just how much work that we can put in for a given session if you are to truly recover on the days in between. Many of us are fearful to push the envelope too much on quality days because we have over-estimated the importance to consistency in day in, day out training.

I believe that the current practices of elite athletes and the science of exercise physiology is starting to point out that optimal performance is best achieved with large modulations in the quality and quantity of training, (i.e. look into the work of Stephen Seiler or the practices of Canova athletes).

If you had 7 weeks, you should progress an interval session say on Tuesday or Wednesday and each week aim to increase the total volume and/or pace of the intervals and then aim to build up you long runs duration and pace on the weekends. Do not be afraid to really push past your efforts and let your own limits dictate what you can handle. Thus, I recommend using time based intervals and long runs and just see what you are capable of on each given session.

Most importantly, on the days in between, be sure to get out and move on an elliptical or bike or aqua jog and keep the intensity super easy so you are motivated and ready to get after it once more.

You should be able to.

In highschool I ran 4:40/10:30/16:55

Ages 18-25 I took off from running to drink and chase ass.

At age 26 I began running again. I averaged 30 mpw for about 14 months. At age 27 I ran a hilly marathon in 2:56:4x .

You could do it on 30mpw, but not 13 weeks from now. That is too soon.

Aim for a fall marathon instead. Get a few months of consistent 30MPW under your belt before a true 16-18 week training cycle (I recommend Hanson's style plan, google it).