Sub-3 marathon within 10 months on limited training realistic?

Agudeza wrote:

Hi friends,

I'm looking to run my first marathon (Hong Kong) in Oct 2021, and was wondering if it'd be realistic to aim for a sub-3:00:00? Unfortunately I've started work which is a little demanding.

22/M, 178cm, 67kg if that helps

Expected non-working/training time:

~30min/weekday (assume work from home + skipping dinner, can go for short runs)

~5hrs/weekend

Before moving to HK, I've consistently run 5km daily for 3 years, and longest endurance would be 20-25km day hikes with 500-1000m total elevation. 5km PB of 18:22 (around 1 year ago)

From what I've read, seems high mileage per week plays a big factor in achieving a faster marathon, so I'm not too sure time-wise if it'd work. Would be amazing to hear any rough training plans, strategies for a sub-3 or if I should target a slower time. Thanks a lot!

The short answer is no.

I am a big believer in 10k and HM PRs for targeting your next Marathon.

If you haven't done HMs yet, do one first and go from there.

Marathon training is straight up endurance training. 30 minute runs will not do much for that.

And hiking as great as it is, does nothing for your ability to run Marathons.

I would recommend that you train within the time frame you have available, train for a 10k and Half Marathon and with these times you can look forward for a realistic goal for your first Marathon. Unless you are super talented, I can't imagine it will be a sub 3 hour goal.

Good luck and enjoy the process

The previous poster ("frank shorter") offers solid advice. I disagree only with his statement that one would need to be "super talented" to run sub-3 with your limited available training time.

Your schedule allows a long run every weekend, and 4-mile maintenance runs five or six days a week. At your age, sub-3 was very doable for me with similar training, and I had very mediocre talent. Never broke 34 for 10K or 16 for 5K, even when training more seriously.

It's the weekly long run that's key. In my late 50s, I ran a sub-3 "age-grade equivalent" by running three times a week, including a long run of 18-23 miles. That was after deciding to run the marathon less than three months before the race. Prior to that, training was just a few miles, twice a week.

Your 18:22 best for 5K perhaps doesn't bode well if that was with "serious" training. But if you were running low mileage,at the time, with no workouts, then that may well indicate sufficient "talent."

Good luck. Run some shorter races, see how it goes.

As much as I love Hong Kong, I would hate to have to train for a marathon there. Limited places to train outside, awful hot+humid weather, dubious air quality. When I lived in HK a lot of runners I knew did a very high % of their runs on the treadmill. In your situation I'd probably focus on rocking the half-marathon instead.

You can definitely do it

Crack on with training and as long as you stay focussed, do long runs and don't get injured sub3 is doable

I went from a similar position of mid18s on 5km and ran a 2:53 8 months later

funrunner20 wrote:Crack on with training and as long as you stay focussed, do long runs and don't get injured sub3 is doable.

Agreed. I learned long ago that single long runs are key to running marathons off overall low mileage. Don't buy into the "long run not just not exceed 25% of total volume" malarkey.

My first marathon was at age 22. I had six weeks to train, after being hobbled by an injury for five months. I ran 3:15 (1:45, 1:30 splits). Five weeks later ran 2:52, and am convinced that the single "26-miler" was the key component. I took a full week off as recovery after the 3:15, then eased back, running only a couple more 18 milers.

Long runs + rest/recovery = low-mileage marathon success.

Frank Shorter here wrote:

The short answer is no.

I am a big believer in 10k and HM PRs for targeting your next Marathon.

If you haven't done HMs yet, do one first and go from there.

Marathon training is straight up endurance training. 30 minute runs will not do much for that.

And hiking as great as it is, does nothing for your ability to run Marathons.

I would recommend that you train within the time frame you have available, train for a 10k and Half Marathon and with these times you can look forward for a realistic goal for your first Marathon. Unless you are super talented, I can't imagine it will be a sub 3 hour goal.

Good luck and enjoy the process

Wow, honestly appreciate everyone's thoughtful advice, it's all very new to me as I've previously jogged for fun and never trained before. But would really like to target a more ambitious goal for my running hobby in the new year, so this is great to know - thank you!

Oh yes thank you Frank Shorter, that makes great sense, I think the common thread I'm getting is to target longer runs with proper pace (which yes I definitely previously was holding back from as I was too used to what I could already do - 5km).

Good to know @ClaytonHammer as well, thanks for the heads up on HK - I was wondering how to survive the HK summer haha, seems might have to resort to treadmills if I'm serious.

I will have a go at some of the workout/training plans and target 10km & HM PBs first in that case, hopefully within the next 2 months, and update you all by then. Cheers!

It depends on your level of talent. If you're really talented, 10 months is more than enough time to break 3:00. Honestly even with modest talent you could do that.

If you're an average talent, good luck. It won't happen.

So it depends on what genes your parents gave you.

I don't know. We need more information like more about your training leading up to your PR.

What makes me say no is you are already saying how busy you are with work. If you put an effort in you can probably do it, but again, I don't know enough about you.

I don't know. We need more information like more about your training leading up to your PR.

What makes me say no is you are already saying how busy you are with work. If you put an effort in you can probably do it, but again, I don't know enough about you.

Understand - I really wish I had the motivation in my final college year with all the time in the world, oh well. Unfortunately very little to go by since I've never trained. As I previously only ran for leisure, have only done three timed 5k runs across 2 weeks last year (21:10, 18:44, 18:22)

In that case think realistically I'll aim for getting as fast a time as possible given my circumstances, instead of fixating on a number (since completing my first marathon would already be satisfying for me, just not at a laughable pace).

Will have a go at extending my runs in the new year and get back first once I get some runs down and a better picture of how it's going.

Thanks for the update and quick reply. I'll be sure to keep an eye on this thread. Looking for the same issue. Bumped into your thread. Thanks for creating it. Looking forward for solution.

Thanks Wayne, appreciate your interest. Have set calendar to update on progress at end of each month in the new year.

Have a great new years' eve everyone!

Hi All, as a quick update:

Training:

Prior to starting would estimate ~6 miles/wk

Month 1 - Jan:

Week 0 (Jan 3): 10k @ 8:00/mile

Week 1 (Jan 4-10): 24 miles (8 mile LR) @ 8:00/mile

Week 2 (Jan 11-17): 25 miles (12 mile LR) @ 8:00/mile

Week 3 (Jan 18-24): 31 miles (HM - 99min) @ 7:30/mile

Week 4 (Jan 25-31): 26 miles (17 mile LR incl. HM - 100min) @ 7:30-8:00/mile

I've been mainly trying to build my long run distance, and had plenty of blisters/chafing/black toes after my first HM (forefoot striking the entire way really kills my toes) hence long recovery and decreased mileage in last week. I do speed intervals once mid-week, but otherwise am running more to build mileage and endurance atm. Given my work schedule, seems 75-90% of the mileage will come from the weekends.

Question-wise:

a) I'm curious how much liquids is appropriate on longer runs (assuming properly hydration prior, cool temp & low humidity) - I bring 240mls of sports drinks in a clip-on bottle which works at 7:40-8:00 pace but not any faster (plus I always drink at least 1.5-2L of liquids immediately after, not sure if that's a sign of dehydration). In the next weeks I'm looking to settle at 20-22 miles (so around 2.5 hours), would you suggest bringing gels or food on these runs? Seems I can get by 17 miles fine without

b) How fast would you suggest running the long runs, targeting 3:00 or say 3:15 for a marathon? I find my breathing gets heavy but can still sustain 7:30 pace, yet at 8:00 it feels very comfortable until my legs start giving in at the end. Not too sure if there's a real benefit to going faster since there's quite some suggestions to the opposite online

c) Training-wise, are there any goals you'd suggest going from here? Realistically I think I'll be able to sustain 40 miles/wk (10 weekdays + 10/20 on Sat-Sun) by the end of next month and aim to run a 3:30 marathon (on a 400m track probably) in 2 months' time. Not sure if it'd be more beneficial to aim for PBs on say a 10k/HM first if targeting a faster marathon in 9 months (ideally sub-3 or close to 3)

Appreciate your thoughts, thanks a lot guys!

Depending on what the quarantine policy is by year's end, I would suggest skipping the HK marathon and waiting until Nov/Dec for a race in Zhejiang province.

HK in Oct is way too hot and humid. I live in Shenzhen and rarely race anywhere in southern Guangdong due to weather - even in Dec/Jan.

If the Covid situation doesn't improve by fall at least consider the Macao marathon in Dec - though still far from ideal weather-wise.

Of course, assuming you luck out and gain entry in the ballot for the HK marathon, you should be in 2:50/2:55 shape in order to break 3 in that weather.