He doesn't seem to going for a record, based on his early pace.
The timing...predicted distance is also not very precise
He doesn't seem to going for a record, based on his early pace.
The timing...predicted distance is also not very precise
I am Sam wrote:
He doesn't seem to going for a record, based on his early pace.
The timing...predicted distance is also not very precise
The race hasn't started yet. Funny there are "results" on the tracking page... looks like timing test data.
Race starts at 8 am MST on Saturday, 12/12.
When I was briefly teammates with Brian Sell at Hansons he said that during his sub 2:11 marathon years he would do 160-170 miles a week and his easy day pace was usually 5:40-6:00/mile. Workout pace (and marathon race pace) was 4:50-4:40 per mile or faster. Count in cool downs and warm-ups ( just a few likely at 6:30 pace or so) and you're talking about a guy that ran 160-170 miles a week and averaged faster than sub 6:00 per mile for nearly 100% of his miles. The guy was tough as nails. Obviously 26.2 mile training is a lot different from 24 hours, but I'd still argue that there is a high correlation with "marathon speed" and success in much longer ultras (esp on a flat road or track). Zach is still a sub 2:30 marathon type, and he can definitely beat a lot of 2:18 guys....however not that many fast marathon runners (ie. sub 2:15) have even tried these types of events. I don't think Zach will even get close to Kouros's 24 hour record. It's one of those "impossible" records. American record for sure possible though. Like I said to Camille Herron though, the sample size/data from these types of events is very small. It is a super niche part of ultra-running IMO. Zach's 100-mile record is very good as well. He runs some trail ultras (Tarawera this year actually) as well as WS100 and even Comrades....but he really shines on the track at over 100km. I think he can get that American record at 24 hours for sure.
YMMV wrote:
Imagine running 200 miles a week, and almost every mile was race pace or faster... Good luck to the Z-Man!
Explains it. Thought it didn't make sense
I use same software and would have used dummy names.
rojo wrote:
You do realize that no one in history has come within 30 seconds of a mile of it (he's 34.14 seconds per mile faster than anyone else in history over 24 hours)?
/
For sure.
In the podcast, Zach notes that an 8 min/mile pace = 180 miles for 24 hours. On the surface, this seems close to YK's 188. The reality is that YK's record is 7:38 per mile. That 22-second per mile difference every mile for 24 hours is RIDICULOUS.
"A shot"may be more apt than "decent shot."
remember when Bitter used to start LR threads about himself?
My guess is he started this thread.
Looks like Kouros only ran a 2:24 marathon. Though I don’t know how hard he trained for it or the course.
While common sense would suggest that fast marathoners would transfer well to the 100 plus mile events on flat terrain, I wonder if we over estimate the ability of the marathon to predict ultra success.
Yes there are some good to decent marathoners that have huge success, but there are also those who do not perform as well as one would think despite having very good marathon pbs.
We typically only hear about those, such as yourself, who knock it out of the park when they step up to ultras.
My point is that Bitter’s 100 mile and 100k are much more telling of what he can do in a 24 hour race. In this context I don’t see the point in talking about what an elite marathoner has run in training, unless said elite marathon has done a 100 miler or 24 hour race.
Makes Paper wrote:
Good luck, Bob! Your performances have been awesome (and made even more notable by your age group); always fun to watch.
Same!
Ultra slow wrote:
Looks like Kouros only ran a 2:24 marathon. Though I don’t know how hard he trained for it or the course.
While common sense would suggest that fast marathoners would transfer well to the 100 plus mile events on flat terrain, I wonder if we over estimate the ability of the marathon to predict ultra success.
Yes there are some good to decent marathoners that have huge success, but there are also those who do not perform as well as one would think despite having very good marathon pbs.
We typically only hear about those, such as yourself, who knock it out of the park when they step up to ultras.
My point is that Bitter’s 100 mile and 100k are much more telling of what he can do in a 24 hour race. In this context I don’t see the point in talking about what an elite marathoner has run in training, unless said elite marathon has done a 100 miler or 24 hour race.
Keep in mind that Kouros ran 2:24 or so in the early 80ies when the world record was 2:08.
That is a 16 minute gap.
Now the record is 2:01:39. Plus 16 minutes gets you to 2:18.
24 hour racing is sooo much longer than a 100k road race. That is also the reason why you don't see many of the top 100k racers try 24 hours. Because they know they won't be able to pull it off.
Thanks to the great Bob Hearn and ultramarkus for the great insights here! Monitoring results. Godspeed!
Theoretically speaking, which would be more difficult to achieve for beginner ultra runners:
75 miles in 12 hours?
or
100 miles in 21 hours ?
You would want to calculate an equivalent time based of percentage, which would make his 'modern equivalent' time closer to 2:16 I believe.
Regardless, your point about 100k success not leading to 24 hour success speaks to the point I was making, which is that shorter distances might not be quite as strong of a predictor of ultra performance as some think.
I don’t think it’s fair to say because the marathon time has improved it naturally goes that YK would get faster. Yeah nutrition, training has improved but the biggest factor is that more talent has moved to the marathon distance with 5-10 speedsters transitioning. More money, more talented athletes. It’s also fair to say that he didn’t dedicate himself to marathons but also he may just have peaked or wasn’t made for running fast at marathon distance.
My point is that I believe that 100km fast runners are not guaranteed to make it as 24hr runners and 42km even less, much less. Despite what Sage says that it correlates, it doesn’t. The evidence actually points the other way. I mean you can’t say that the 24hr record, run by a 2.24 marathoner, is unbeatable and not going to go down for another 25/50 years, and then say a fast marathon time correlates all the way up to 24hr, even though plenty of faster marathon runners have tried ultras and it’s getting bigger and bigger with no signs of fast marathoners dominating.
Godspeed! wrote:
Theoretically speaking, which would be more difficult to achieve for beginner ultra runners:
75 miles in 12 hours?
or
100 miles in 21 hours ?
Probably not much difference. Both are achievable goals for a lot of runners I would think.
Alavisca wrote:
My point is that I believe that 100km fast runners are not guaranteed to make it as 24hr runners and 42km even less, much less. Despite what Sage says that it correlates, it doesn’t. The evidence actually points the other way. I mean you can’t say that the 24hr record, run by a 2.24 marathoner, is unbeatable and not going to go down for another 25/50 years, and then say a fast marathon time correlates all the way up to 24hr, even though plenty of faster marathon runners have tried ultras and it’s getting bigger and bigger with no signs of fast marathoners dominating.
Sage has a point when he says that a better Marathon time helps in a 24 hour race. But it is important to mention that it only helps the runners who actually doing 24 hour races.
Just because you have a fast Marathon time means nothing at the start line for a 24 hour race.
Ryan Clifford was through 50 miles in around 6 hours, and is about 4.5 miles ahead of Bitter at 7 hours
And Zach was already slower than World Record pace after 7 hours and 86k.
Can we please just stop talking about this as if anything less than 188 miles is a failure?
Listening to his podcast clearly reveals his plan. Pace it reasonably quick to give himself a shot at 180 miles which would make him the second best 24hr runner ever. Hopefully still get in 160+ to make the team.
And to all of you guys talking about "conversions" from marathon to 24hr...are you freaking kidding me? There's no conversion! Don't tell me you're getting that from the McMillan Running Calculator.
he's at 180 mile pace after 7 hours. He negative split his 100mi WR, so don't assume that he will have a big fade in the second half.
Guys in front on 190 mile projection (304 km?), but the one just starting to do 3:40 laps and dropping