Valencia Marathon is in 37 days: here are 74 profiles, two per day

You are welcome.

I have probably left this lady a little late on World half form, but next is Melat Kejeta. Magnificent in Poland and great debut at this distance in Berlin, i think 2.21.xx would be a good progression here. Following is something i wrote 11 months ago in my Saitama thread:

Aussiestatman wrote:

I thought I might use the extra time to share some thoughts about six women who debuted in marathons this year.

The next is the overrated: Melat Kejeta, talked herself up in the lead-up to Berlin. Was only ranked 95 as a road runner with a best half time of 68.41. Ran sixth in 2.23.57.

here is my bio then [including a discussion i had with another poster]:

bekelegoat wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Twelfth woman could be Anna Hahner, 30yo and ranked 485. Her PB was for 7th here in 2014, 2.26.44. Was fourth this last April in Düsseldorf in 2.36.09. Won Hannover in 2016 in 2.30.35.

If you feel the need to create those threads at least do them right. You forgot Melat Kejeta, who debuts, but ran a 1:08 half before. Clearly should be ahead of Anna Hahner.

Alll wrote:

Weather for sunday 9 am is going to be perfect! 14°C/58°F

But the rain..

Talking up Melat is your call. Didn't forget her. Similar half time to Sally Kipyego, who i have pegged at 16 here. Some road runners can take two marathons to find their feet. I have her at 14th, we will see who is closer this Sunday.

Here she comes, the self-professed 2.22 debutant, Kejeta Melat Yisak, born 92 so is 26 or 27yo and ranked 62 as a road runner. Her best at the half came last year in Vento, second in 68.41. This last June, ran a 10k PB of 31.50 in finishing fourth in Oelde six days before winning a half in Zwolle in 69.29. The stage is set, let's see what she can do?

18th to finish might be Ashenafi Moges, either 25 or 26yo. Sixth here last year in 2.06.12.

Next female is Hawi Feysa. Already at 21 a great reputation on the track, ranked 11 over 5000m. Represented her country at Doha. Debut at Dubai marathon, sixth in 2.23.36.

Aussiestatman wrote:

18th to finish might be Ashenafi Moges, either 25 or 26yo. Sixth here last year in 2.06.12.

Next may be Abel Kipchumba. Has a growing reputation in this city, so it is fitting if his second finish over the classic distance becomes his breakthru moment. 26yo who owns the 15k record here after winning at night in June last year in 41.55. Debut marathon 3, almost 4 months later in Berlin: 10th in 2.09.39. That time wouldn't get a top 30 finish here, but he will be better.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Next female is Hawi Feysa. Already at 21 a great reputation on the track, ranked 11 over 5000m. Represented her country at Doha. Debut at Dubai marathon, sixth in 2.23.36.

I realised two things after writing this: this athlete and her management sense Hawi has a better chance to represent her country in the Olympics in this event than on the track [confirmed by her running the classic distance instead of the half here]; and Feysa is the gatekeeper of this field. Is the last of those i have profiled who have a slim top ten chance, any others need to get past her to get to the others.

So 19th and first of the 'others' should be Abebe-Tekulu Gebremeskel, 30 or 31yo. Has had seven years before 2019 of marathons outside 2.30 then marked improvement in two steps: Feb in Seville second in 2.24.53; then here 8th in 2.22.29. I don't believe Gebremeskel has much more improvement left, but duplication would bring her closer to the World's top 40.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

18th to finish might be Ashenafi Moges, either 25 or 26yo. Sixth here last year in 2.06.12.

Next may be Abel Kipchumba. Has a growing reputation in this city, so it is fitting if his second finish over the classic distance becomes his breakthru moment. 26yo who owns the 15k record here after winning at night in June last year in 41.55. Debut marathon 3, almost 4 months later in Berlin: 10th in 2.09.39. That time wouldn't get a top 30 finish here, but he will be better.

20th and first of the Spanish armada is Hamid Ben Dauod, 24yo. Was amongst many who ran PB's in Feb in Seville thinking that Olympic qualification would follow. Now has to do it all again. 12th in Seville in 2.07.33 after 6th in Prague in May last year in 2.08.14. Needs to only find 42 sec to take the 14yo NR.

Aussiestatman wrote:

So 19th and first of the 'others' should be Abebe-Tekulu Gebremeskel, 30 or 31yo. Has had seven years before 2019 of marathons outside 2.30 then marked improvement in two steps: Feb in Seville second in 2.24.53; then here 8th in 2.22.29. I don't believe Gebremeskel has much more improvement left, but duplication would bring her closer to the World's top 40.

Next woman could be Carla Salome Rocha, 30yo. Battled on last year just to finish at the World Champs in just under three hours. Imagine the suffering, so oppressive just to breathe. Was a DNF in London this year, here is my profile from then:

13th is Carla Salome Rocha, just Salome Rocha according to her World Athletics profile. Eighth here last year in her PB of 2.24.47, inching ever closer to Rosa Mota's NR. Salome has never really conquered the half: best of 72.12.

21st to cross the line may be Abdi Nageeye, holder of the Dutch NR of 2.06.17 accomplished April last year when 4th in Rotterdam.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

So 19th and first of the 'others' should be Abebe-Tekulu Gebremeskel, 30 or 31yo. Has had seven years before 2019 of marathons outside 2.30 then marked improvement in two steps: Feb in Seville second in 2.24.53; then here 8th in 2.22.29. I don't believe Gebremeskel has much more improvement left, but duplication would bring her closer to the World's top 40.

Next woman could be Carla Salome Rocha, 30yo. Battled on last year just to finish at the World Champs in just under three hours. Imagine the suffering, so oppressive just to breathe. Was a DNF in London this year, here is my profile from then:

13th is Carla Salome Rocha, just Salome Rocha according to her World Athletics profile. Eighth here last year in her PB of 2.24.47, inching ever closer to Rosa Mota's NR. Salome has never really conquered the half: best of 72.12.

Fellow Portuguese Sara Moreira might be next, 35yo, whose PB of 2.24.49 was set when second in Prague in 2015. Also fourth in New York that year. Covered the World Half course in 71.39 for 39th this year.

Next should be Okubay Tsegay, 34yo, who ran his PB of 2.06.46 when 4th in Seville early last year. Took 3.10 off his PB. I was surprised that was the NR when Eritrea has a man who was World Champ 5 years ago as a teenager then 4th at the last Olympics.

Mexico's NR holder could be the next female if we get the Chicago 2017 as a 37yo version of her here. Madai Perez Carrillo is now 40 and her PB of 2.22.59 was set in 2006. Has run nothing of note at this classic distance or a half since 2011 save the aforementioned Chicago and the NY half in 2013.

23rd man is another Mexican. More soon.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Tenth lady might be Zeinaba Yimer, who debuted last year here in 2.19.28. Finished fifth. Fourth last month in the World half champs.

Next could be Jordan Hasay, 29yo, especially if she gets back to the form of three years ago. Two thirds in majors is a fantastic year, especially if one is in 2.20.57. Third in Boston last year in 2.25.20.

Doesn’t look as though Hasay will be quicker than Boston last year, just going on today’s half result.

Aussiestatman wrote:

23rd man is another Mexican. More soon.

Juan Pacheco, 29yo, was third at the Pan American games in Lima, Peru last year. His PB is 2.10.58 when fifth in Houston in Jan last year. He finished Dubai this year in 21st in 2.13.01 then was 30th at the World half champs in 61.20, slicing almost a full minute off his PB.

One more lady from Portugal may be the 23rd to finish, Sara Catarina Ribeiro. 30yo, PB here on the Iberian peninsula last year, 2.26.39 when 12th. Made huge strides as well late last year at the half in two steps: Sept 6th in Porto in 72.37 then four weeks later 7th in Lisbon one minute quicker.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

As well as these two legends of the sport, I am giving props here and hoping a third can improve his PB to under 2.06 after a decade of trying to master this distance. As long ago as 2006, Zersenay Tadese was second in Brussels over 10000 on the track in what still is the 9th fastest time ever. John Wesley Harding, a legend himself around here, ranked him 47th among his peers among 'middle and long distance runners since WWII'. In between Borzakovskiy and Malinowski:

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=10221588

Is now 38yo, won the Lisbon half in 2010 in 58.23 then in 2011 in 58.31. Was 6th in 2019 in Doha at the World Champs at this distance.

Haha, thanks Statman. My dreams have become reality.

I can't just have one reference to your great lists. The other Kirui, Abel, is among your 50 Greatest Men's Marathoners at number 22:

22. Abel Kirui - ‘09 & ‘11 world champion, ‘12 Olympic silver, won Chicago ‘16, ran sub-2:08 in 8 years from ‘07-‘18, 2:05:04 PB made him #6 AT in ‘09

He's my 24th here so late in a stellar career, now 38yo, and here is an in depth story on him from World Athletics:

Was still good enough for two sub 2.08's at majors two years ago

Czech Republic's NR holder is 24th female. Eva Vrabkova has three of the quickest four times amongst her countrywomen. Is 34yo and in winning bronze in 2.26.31 at the last Euro Champs, took 3.10 off her PB and broke the 23yo NR. Also in 2018 in Prague, broke the half NR by one second, also set 23 years prior by the same athlete.

25th to cross the line should be Daniel Kemboi, 33 or 34yo. 8th in Amsterdam in Oct. last year in 2.06.31